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Certainly not a big betting race for me in seasons gone by, and one I more often than not give a swerve.
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/90/wincanton/2017-11-11/686423
A couple do catch the eye though, and I’ll shamelessly copy and paste from The Greatwood thread, as it seems just as relevant here, 2 horses who I think are winners waiting to happen.
Old Guard – After seemingly going off the boil a bit, with a foray over fences not bringing out the best in him, he’s slowly came back to himself, and he really caught the eye in The Coral Cup, and also shaped well at Chepstow last month. He’s since won at Kempton, and is unchanged for that. The Greatwood is the right type of race for him I reckon, though I don’t see why he cant figure here either, and he’s clearly no back number. On a very handy mark, and as mentioned, plenty of hints that he’s returning to form, and 12’s is smashing. Will he go though?
Flying Tiger – He did me the biggest of favours in The Fred Winter this year, and he owes me nothing. He’s not been hammered for that Festival win, and he beat current market leader for The Greatwood, Divin Bere, fair and square that day. It’s worth checking out his run on the flat at Ascot last time, where he looked as if he had been thrown in at the deep end, but ran very very well. Not surprisingly he’s as low as 9-2 for this, but the 7’s with Stan James is tempting.
Call Me Lord though, looks like a very very nice horse, and may just be value himself at 4’s. He looks seriously progressive, and if either of my early fancies did show, they’ve have to repay my faith with a big performance to topple him. Represents last years winning owners, who scored with Sceau Royal. Zubayr also ran in this last year, and though held when coming down at the last, he’s held his form fairly well in both codes, and without being a world beater, he should give his running should he head here.
No bet yet, but certainly considering Old Guard & Flying Tiger at the odds, but the double engagement is an issue.
Nice work again Bobby
Tricky race, strange betting. A handful of bookies betting on it two of whom have Call Me Lord at 7/4 while Hills go 4/1. Hills go 12 Old Guard – Stan James offer 7/2. Stan James go 8 Charbel who’s as low as 5 with Hills.
Call Me Lord comes with a biggish rep but he seems to have quirks to go with it having pulled a race from the fire in France after going wildly right. Went right again on his belated UK debut and didn’t jump well. He comes with risks but it depends what Nicky’s done with him over the summer. Henderson’s won this once in 5 attempts since 1997.
Old Guard seems awful big at 12/1 and I wonder if Hills have the nod that he won’t be running? Nicholls also has Zubayr and High Secret in this, a race he loves to win at his local track. He’s won it 7 times with 7 more reaching a place.
I’d be seriously interested in Charbel at 8/1. He holds no chase entries just now, just 2 hurdle options and I wonder if Bailey realises the horse won’t cut it in a very hot two-mile chase division? Assuming his chase form transfers he’ll be 7lbs well in here. I’m most tempted and will have a small bet at 8s and top up if he’s declared.
Couer de lion at 14/1 e/w
London prize at 7/1, will follow him in whatever race he appears, will likely be half the price if he comes here so will take some of the 7/1
This is a hard race to weigh up at the moment. Call Me Lord could be absoluelty anything and I have no idea what Charbel will do. The others all look to be of similar ability so this could be a race to wait and see who gets backed on the day.
Best of luck with the King horse Ham, that looks a very fair price.
When the odds came out Call Me Lord stood out like a sore thumb as a wrinkle.
William Hill went 4/1, whereas a couple of firms were 7/4.
I thought I would check it out first and after concluding that the Henderson horse could be chucked in for a shrewd outfit, I wired in at 7/2. I can’t have him bigger than 9/4 myself and he looks one to follow this season.
He could be the class act long term, meaning that it is essential to wire in here against some very exposed cuddies.
Call Me Lord 7/2 seems like he’s worth a decent punt.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looks like I have done my dough here. Lough Derg Spirit is the one who has move to the odds I expected Call Me Lord to be.
Oh well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Couer de lion at 14/1 e/w
London prize at 7/1, will follow him in whatever race he appears, will likely be half the price if he comes here so will take some of the 7/1
Happy that both have turned up atleast, couer de lion with a a 10lb claimer on him is a big plus for me and has about halved in price now in some places
London prize will be the hardest to beat if he can translate his flat form over to hurdles thats an if though, no guarantees on that.
Charbel has good 1st time out form so i dont think fitness will be an issue and i think the same would apply to lough derg spirit and flying tiger
Should be a good race!
I’m going to feel so dirty when he gets tanked but I couldn’t resist betting Melodic Rendezvous here. 33/1 was a bit of an insult to him, surely?
I see Pricewise has spotted the fox as well. His Wincanton form reads 11224, all in G2 company. He’ll get his ground tomorrow and is bound to be trying for his life. The 4 earned a ‘sectional upgrade’ too.
I didn’t like London Prize (needs big field, strongly-run affair), Coeur De Lion (similar) or Flying Tiger (needs big field to settle) and I thought Lough Derg Spirit was a bit of a false price given that his ‘best’ run was a bit of a fruity effort helped by the old Musselburgh pace bias. Zubayr is solid but hardly one to run away from given his strike rate. If Charbel doesn’t like the ground or isn’t ready for this (yard going well, but may have other targets ahead) then Jeremy Scott’s old trooper might just rattle a few cages here.
Can’t see Charbel not being ready Soldier; unbeaten on seasonal debuts (in practice)
I like Lough Derg Spirit as a horse, but looks very short for this. I rate Charbel, London Prize and Flying Tiger as all having better chances. I’ve backed Charbel @ 9/2 and 4/1 with savers on London Prize 5/1 and Flying Tiger 6/1. Charbel is a horse I love, very genuine, well handicapped on chase form, has a good record fresh and at this time of year and trainer in brilliant form. Hasn’t run on very soft ground for a long time, but impressive when doing so. Hopefully won’t get in to a pace duel with LDS.
London Prize won a big hurdles handicap and runner-up in the Ces on the flat. Be surprising if he doesn’t improve again over obsticles. Just have a slight concern over both going and whether he has the pace for this. Good win to run ratio, unlike Zubayer. Nicholls horse doesn’t win very often for one of his ability; seconditus. Want to be against not only Lough Derg Spirit but Zubayer too. Both imo far from certain to be as effective if the expected rain sweeps through.
Melodic Rendezvous needs very soft ground and might get it if the forecast is correct. May have his favourite course but age is against him. Surely on the downgrade? Only good run last term 2 1/4 lengths 2nd. Has a chance if that form can be believed; however, imo flattered after getting a soft lead on 2016 reappearance. That’s highly unlikely tomorrow with both Lough Derg Spirit and Charbel in the field.
Flying Tiger won a Fred Winter on goodish ground off a 7 lbs lower mark than here. Has soft ground form too, including a promising 5th in a Group 3 on the flat.
Coer De Lion‘s chance probably relies on picking up the pieces if others go off too fast, coming through exhausted horses in a stamina test. Might be one to play only in running if that happens.Value Is EverythingBit the bullet and backed Charbel at 4/1 with a saver on Lough Derg Spirit at 10/3.
That Supreme form from 2016 is the best on offer and a reproduction of his peak hurdles form should be good enough.
I’ve taken a chance that Flying Tiger can be settled early on at 11/2 which I think is overpriced
Missed all of the fancy prices that have been taken by some on here, but I’ve got to
row in with quite a few who fancy CHARBEL. 7/2 isn’t huge, but I think
his chances are
After initially shortening Charbel out to 5/1 on course. Is he fit?
5.8/1 on betfair.Value Is EverythingIt’s not very encouraging seeing Charbel drift like that Ginger. I actually put him
up in the ante post thread at 7s a few days back, and then forgot to get my cash on
until today. By the indications in the market, it’s not going to make much difference
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