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On Yanworth and Petit Mouchoir each way at 12s and 25s
Just don;t think neither Annie Power or Faugheen will make it personally.
On Yanworth and Petit Mouchoir each way at 12s and 25s
Just don;t think neither Annie Power or Faugheen will make it personally.
What makes you think that?
Annie didn’t debut until February last season when she won a Mares race followed by two blistering performances at Cheltenham and Aintree. No reason why she cant do that again. They haven’t ran her before Xmas since 2013.
Faugheen out for the year so I can see your point there. He’s due to appear at The Irish Champion Hurdle where he will take on Petit Mouchoir so we’ll know a bit more then, I suppose. If he was to miss that one then I would agree
On MTOY @ 50’s ew as well. Madness of a price IMO. Like you say Zark, not betting to win but think it is a great place bet
He couldn’t even come in the first 3 in a terrible christmas hurdle, in what was effectively a 4 runner race. Hardly a good bet for him to therefore be placed in a champion hurdle. Your relying on him showing form that he simply hasn’t got this season. Clearly not the same horse that was second to jezki, or even second to Annie power last year. I just can’t see it myself. I’d even go as far as to say he should run in the county hurdle or something like that.
I literally couldn’t care less. He’s been placed at 3/3 festivals before and you can get 12.5/1 for a place.
As for the County Hurdle…would he seriously have any chance at all of placing off top weight? Probably not. JP will have plenty for the County I imagine and I reckon MTOY was there to force the pace at Kempton. He was racing TNO a long way from home.
Something I think is interesting with L’Ami Serge is that he’s not like Flintshire or My Tent Or Yours – perennial runner-ups – as he actually does something in his races that they don’t. He gets his head in front. He doesn’t come cruising up and refuse to go past. He actually goes past very quickly. In the JLT on the new course I don’t think he got home and I don’t think he got home in the Relkeel on the new course on heavy ground either. 2m on the old course could suit him a treat.
My Tent Or Yours…I think they would improve the horse by a couple of lengths if they get a hard-working jockey on him, in the mould of McCoy. Perhaps Johnson?
I had real
doubts about Faugheen seeing a racecourse again this year.So does Hitler
http://captiongenerator.com/300162/Hitler-discovers-Faugheen-is-Replaced-with-Annie
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I had real
doubts about Faugheen seeing a racecourse again this year.So does Hitler
http://captiongenerator.com/300162/Hitler-discovers-Faugheen-is-Replaced-with-Annie
I feel his pain Nathan
Nichols Canyon is surely far too big here at 331/ as an each way bet?
You have to leave aside a slightly moderate run at Leopardstown last time (video suggests he ran right through the line though), I think he is a cracking price given his form.It looks like only one of Annie Power & Faugheen will run, and just possibly neither, and excepting Petit Mouchoir nothing else has impressed.
In the 10 races that Nicholls Canyon has run at 16-18f since joining Mullins he has won 6 of 10, placed 9 of 10 and won 5 Grade 1s in the process….he unseated rider in the only race he didn’t hit the board.
He was 3rd last year, in what at this stage looks a stronger race (granted that could change), the 2nd has deteriorated and the winner has been absent for a long time, it was 4 lengths back to the 4th.
I just cannot see this horse being aimed at the Stayers Hurdle, nothing in his profile or stable behaviour suggests he wants a 3 mile trip.
At 33s a decent each way poke, I think (1/4 odds, 3 places)Faugheen out to 11/4 now. Starting to tempt people no doubt. It is me
Backed him to win at just over 3’s on the machine.
Petit Mouchoir 7/1…beaten twice by Buveur D’Air over hurdles (smashed up at Cheltenham), beaten by loads of horses who’ve elected to go novice chasing instead of taking on the Grade 1 hurdlers, got the run of the race in the Ryanair Hurdle. Nonsense. Won’t place.
Brain Power 12/1. Is this a joke? He’s good, but 12/1 good?
Faugheen/Annie Power/VVM…two of these won’t run.
Yorkhill won’t run.
Superb Story 20/1? Ah come off it
Apples Jade…goes most probably to the mares and won’t be quick enough anyway?
BIGGGG value in this market right now IMO.
Market order:
Faugheen – he or Annie Power non-runner?
Yanworth
Annie Power – she or Faugheen non-runner?
Petit Mouchoir – not good enough?
Brain Power 12/1 for a handicap winner
Yorkhill – non-runner?
Superb Story 20/1 for a handicap winner
Apples Jade – non-runner?
Vroum Vroum Mag – non-runner?
The New One
Moon Racer – novice, runs in the Supreme?Question marks over the participation of seven of the front 11 in the market. Huge value question marks over two of the ‘confirmed’ runners.
L’Ami Serge, My Tent Or Yours, Arctic Fire, Nichols Canyon, Ivanovich Gorbatov…some good each-way value here possibly. They’ve all achieved far greater things than either Brain Power/Superb Story yet trade at much bigger prices.
This race is so frustrating! I’ve personally backed Yanworth @ 16’s and I also backed Apples Jade @8’s back in October but it looks like that ones dead now. If neither of the Mullins big guns turn up I think Yanworth has a great chance but it’s a big if.
I wouldn’t trust Mullins as far as I could throw him and I’m a bit of a conspiracy theorist where he’s concerned.
I have a theory at the moment – I fully expect Faugheen to turn up, I think all these negative vibes and prices being pushed out will trick punters into backing something else before Nrmb comes in thinking they’ve got value. He’ll reappear run a blinder in a prep race then turn up at short odds on and stroll it with Annie Power Strolling the mares and then going on to Aintree to stroll that.
I could be way off the mark but like I say wouldn’t trust Mullins at all. Just look at the Vautour saga last year – adamant its gold cup or nothing, runs in the Ryanair wins doing handstands. Davey Russell said on one of the preview nights there’s no way that horse goes gold cup it’s Ryanair fill your wheelbarrows up and he was bang on.
Based on this theory I’m very tempted to have a Faugheen, Annie Power double for the two races. I love both the horses and think they are both in another league but just don’t trust Willie.
My Tent Or Yours beat Nichols Canyon at both Cheltenham + Aintree last year. Nichols Canyon 33s vs MTOY 50s, so that’s wrong.
No idea if Arctic Fire will turn up.
My Tent Or Yours…I can understand why people don’t want to back him, but 12.5/1 for a place speaks volumes IMO. I couldn’t put anybody off.
L’Ami Serge…the more I think about this fella, the more I think he could be the surprise package. Pretty iffy chasing career, but he destroyed Killultagh Vic over hurdles. Destroyed the Ladbroke winner. And his Supreme form is holding up very nicely…1st Douvan 2nd Shaneshill 3rd Sizing John. The 1st + 3rd will likely be the 1st + 2nd in the Queen Mum, Shaneshill has a host of very good runs in big races (2nd in the RSA), and don’t forget that L’Ami Serge was properly mullered twice in that race. Go back and watch it, it’s a miracle his race wasn’t finished then and there. And we all know that NJH Supreme runners are a shell of what their future selves.
People can point to his Cheltenham record of 432 and say he hasn’t won, but I say…those are 3 pretty good runs within their true context! 4th when mullered twice in the Supreme (and Douvan won it ffs), 3rd when he was leading Black Hercules and Bristol De Mai over 2m 4f over fences on the new course, but just got tired + 2nd when he just got done on the line in the Relkeel on practically heavy ground on the new course over 2m 4 1/2f. So…mullered, didn’t stay + didn’t stay = 432 IMO. 2m on quick ground for him…perfect.
And there’s your Champion Hurdle winner. L’Ami Serge.
History even backs us up. Champion Hurdlers looking to defend their crowns invariably get beaten by younger horses with a very good run in a Cheltenham Grade 1 novice hurdle next to their name; Hors La Loi won the Supreme before defeating Istabraq, Hardy Eustace won the Neptune before defeating Rooster Booster, Brave Inca won the Supreme (and had another year racing) before defeating Hardy Eustace, Sublimity 4th in the Supreme before defeating Brave Inca, Katchit 1st in the Triumph before defeating Sublimity, Punjabi 4th in the Triumph (and raced for another year) before defeating Katchit, Binocular 2nd in the Supreme (and raced for another year) before defeating Punjabi, Rock On Ruby was 2nd in the Neptune before defeating Hurricane Fly, Jezki 3rd in the Supreme before defeating Hurricane Fly, Faugheen won the Neptune before defeating Jezki.
That’d point to Yanworth (Neptune 2nd), L’Ami Serge (Supreme 4th), Yorkhill (Neptune 1st) or an ex-Triumph horse such as Apple’s Jade or Ivanovich Gorbatov (or Peace And Co!?!).
So in fact, only 3 of the last 13 Champion Hurdle winners (HF + HE both won 2, so only counted once) didn’t finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival Novice Grade 1 hurdle race. Annie Power finished 2nd in the WH + fell in the Mares, Hurricane Fly hadn’t run at Cheltenham before and Rooster Booster won the County Hurdle. 2/3 trained in Ireland. You can change the way of looking at it and say that 11 of the last 13 Champion Hurdle winners all finished in the top 4 at a previous Cheltenham Festival, which would include all winners bar Hurricane Fly (and Sizing Europe, if you like to include his as a winner for ‘moral’ purposes).
Whatever way you spin it, this bodes very badly indeed for Brain Power. For the Superb Story fans out there…Rooster Booster was rated 167 going into the Champion Hurdle after following the County up with the Greatwood and Bula Hurdles. Very different situation Superb Story finds himself in.
Regarding Irish horses who just have the one run before the Champion Hurdle, may I point to Hurricane Fly…came back for 1 run in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Everybody (myself included) thought he was a cert at Cheltenham and got beaten by Rock on Ruby (history going to repeat itself here with a Yanworth-Faugheen FC?).
Istabraq had 1 run over Xmas, then was pulled up at Cheltenham. Hardy Eustace had 2 runs and only managed 3rd to Brave Inca/Mac’s Joy. Annie Power is either a freak, or she won a mighty weak Champion Hurdle last year, or the 7lb mares claim helped no end because she’s the only one of the four to defy the recent ‘norm’.
Reclaiming a Cheltenham Festival Championship race is a very tough thing to do. Sprinter Sacre, Moscow Flyer, Kauto Star and Hurricane Fly managed it – 4 legends of the turf. Is Faugheen a legend too? That is the question.
I agree to an extent Tone101, but I think a lot of people miss possibly the biggest point in that Willie is creature of habit. Yes, annoyingly one of those habits is leading punters down the garden path, but the other is that he repeats what works. If you were Willie why would you run Annie Power? To hose up some nothing races in Ireland for small prize money and risk injury for festival? No chance. RR has a massive soft spot for this mare which was clear for all to see in his post champion hurdle interviews last year. No way they don’t give her a chance at reclaiming her crown. Last year worked a treat and I fully expect her to do what she did last year, this year. People will be saying after the CH this year what they were saying after the Champion Chase last year – 4/1?!?!?!
I get what your saying Charlie87 I agree Rich has a big soft spot for her and I’m sure he’d love her to reclaim the champion hurdle before being retired like his wife apparently wanted to do at the end of last season. I spose the fact that he managed to convince her to keep Annie in training one more year adds weight to the fact they will let her defend her title.
It’s just Willie I’m concerned about, Rich appeared to want to race Vautour against Djakadam in the Gold cup last year but ultimately Willie found a way to get him in the Ryanair (apparently hadn’t been sparkling at home) it certainly didn’t look like that on the track.
I just wonder might we get the line we wouldn’t want her going to a champion hurdle without a prep run so we’ll run in the mares race as it’s an easier assignment for her.
I suppose it’s anybody’s guess really, by the time we know who goes where the prices will be long gone unfortunately but we can take a stab and hope we get it rite I suppose. We may find out a little more if Faugheen shows up at the end of the month.
I’d love to see them take each other on it would be brilliant for the sport but again although I think Rich could maybe be talked into it I’m sure Willie and Ruby would be dead against it.
On his ATR interview Ricci said the opposite. He said Willie wants then to face off but he himself doesn’t. Willie lets his horses face off all the time.
Hurricane Fly v Faugheen
Faugheen v Nichols Canyon v Arctic FireIt’s Ricci that doesn’t like his horses running against each other.
The fact is they are both really good horse, they are both 9 years old and they are capable of getting Willie and Ricci 2 wins at the festival and that’s what I think they will do.
I get what your saying Charlie87 I agree Rich has a big soft spot for her and I’m sure he’d love her to reclaim the champion hurdle before being retired like his wife apparently wanted to do at the end of last season. I spose the fact that he managed to convince her to keep Annie in training one more year adds weight to the fact they will let her defend her title.
It’s just Willie I’m concerned about, Rich appeared to want to race Vautour against Djakadam in the Gold cup last year but ultimately Willie found a way to get him in the Ryanair (apparently hadn’t been sparkling at home) it certainly didn’t look like that on the track.
I just wonder might we get the line we wouldn’t want her going to a champion hurdle without a prep run so we’ll run in the mares race as it’s an easier assignment for her.
I suppose it’s anybody’s guess really, by the time we know who goes where the prices will be long gone unfortunately but we can take a stab and hope we get it rite I suppose. We may find out a little more if Faugheen shows up at the end of the month.
I’d love to see them take each other on it would be brilliant for the sport but again although I think Rich could maybe be talked into it I’m sure Willie and Ruby would be dead against it.
All good points Tone101.
I am puzzled why Faugheen is 5/2 and Annie Power 4/1. Connections have mentioned a step up in trip for Faugheen is on the cards and he is coming back from injury – I am as convinced as I can be that if both make it to cheltenham fit (and I know at this stage its a big if), that Annie will go Champion, win, then retire.
I haven’t seen that interview Vautour Interesting though I wasn’t aware Ricci didn’t want to see them race. It’d certinly be a though decicision for Ruby if it did happen. I think your rite though if both make it and are fit they will run in different races.
Yes Charlie87 I was sure I heard them mention a possible step up in trip for Faugheen Too but the bookies seem to think not. If Annie does show up for the champion hurdle and you’ve taken the 4’s it’ll be a cracking price. I just can’t quite bring myself to drive in on either of them with single bets though so I’m going to stick with the champion hurdle mares double and hope I’ve got it rite.
I suppose with Faugheen out at such a big price for the stayers I could have a small bet on that doubled with Annie In the champion too. No doubt neither would make it for Cheltenham then
It’s all fun and games I am puzzled why Faugheen is 5/2 and Annie Power 4/1. Connections have mentioned a step up in trip for Faugheen is on the cards and he is coming back from injury – I am as convinced as I can be that if both make it to cheltenham fit (and I know at this stage its a big if), that Annie will go Champion, win, then retire.
THEY know
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