- This topic has 255 replies, 44 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Does Paddy Brennan getting jocked off in favour of Harry Cobden improve Cue Card’s chances?
BDM is quoted at 100’s @ BV for the Triple Crown if anyone fancies him for that
I’ve had a fiver on BDM with Paddy Power at 80/1 as that’s where I have my account.
Just for interest, he’s in good spirits and enjoying himself so who knows what he can achieve this year.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...DOes anybody have any idea if might Bite is likely to run in this race?
I like traffic fluide here at 25/1 but I want to know if might bite Is likely to run.
If anybody has any idea please let me know.
Might Bite is not running according to the trainer. Then again the trainer is Nicky Henderson . . .
Sizing John on the drift, out to 3/1 in places and Bristol De Mai in to 7/4 at best, as low as 11/8.
What’s happening?
Bristol De Mai looks incredibly short unless you know there’s significant non runner/s.
Can’t see BDM being as low as 11/8 on the day even if Sizing John doesn’t run.
Value Is EverythingSizing john confirmed to be fine ginge
I had taken the 6/1 about cue card last week but its a silly price 3/1 sizing john and ive taken some of that, ill be taking BDM on in this at 7/4
Cue card 6/1
Sizing john 3/1Reading the quotes from Jessie it sounds like he’s a definite runner! If you take into account the three tough races last year she points out, and the history of the gold cup leaving a mark on horses….and Robbie Powers fears over the likely testing conditions then I can understand the drift…I couldn’t back Sizing John if he was 5/1…
Two fit horses both proven round Haydock and on ‘Haydock soft’ ground!
I can actually see Cue Card challenging for favouritism on the day and wouldn’t swap my 6/1 on him for anything..
Sizing john is proven on soft/heavy ground, he beat a 141 rated horse by 28 lengths on heavy ground(a horse who likes heavy ground also i might add)
He also butied sub lieutenant by 7 lengths on heavy
Wont be surprised if sizing john ended up fav again come the weekend…
I’m just going on what the man who rides him says ham…from the racing post…
‘Robbie Power has been pleased with Sizing John’s preparation too but issued a word of caution about the ground’…
‘The main concern I have about Saturday is the ground. It could be very, very soft and he would prefer it much quicker than that. He’s a lovely mover and better ground suits him. Bristol De Mai has already proved that he loves deep ground and Cue Card handles it and has had a run too, so that’ll be in their favour’…
Anyone backing Bristol de Mai at those prices is mad. Very inconsistent horse who is being over supported as a result of picking up the pieces at Wetherby.
BDM on this track is a big danger to the favourite but it’s too early to play here.
Can’t believe BDM is now 13/8 favourite.
That 7/2 suddenly looks massive in hindsight.
It’s a very strange market tbh. Can see any of the front three winning but the current prices make BDM impossible to back.
Sizing john is proven on soft/heavy ground, he beat a 141 rated horse by 28 lengths on heavy ground(a horse who likes heavy ground also i might add)
He also butied sub lieutenant by 7 lengths on heavy
Wont be surprised if sizing john ended up fav again come the weekend…
Sub Lieutenant wasn’t the horse he is now, that race back in 2014 and at 2m over hurdles, Ham.
It’s not really about whether Sizing John acts on heavy, question is is he at his very best on it? Especially when it places much more emphasis on stamina. It is even possible connections could use the going as an excuse not to run – because of the stamina issue as well as fitness.
Value Is EverythingId be surprised if theyd pull sizing john out because of the ground, throwing the dart for the bonus seems more likely
Never know i guess, but for robbie power to say the ground is against him seems crazy, hes a grade 1 winner on heavy
I won’t have a bet in this because of the BDM factor. He’s too unpredictable. In his favour is track and ground. Against him is tough opposition in the shape of Sizing John and Cue Card (assuming he gets round). Against him too is the fact that other than running up a hat trick almost 2 years ago (with 2 of the wins at odds on) he hasn’t won two on the trot, although, to be fair, he has sometime been quite highly tried. Also, he looked to have a really hard race at Wetherby.
No question in my mind that given his favourite track and conditions he has the talent to win it, but he could also bomb out. He’s jumped superbly at Haydock but he has a tendency to start making errors in a race and, if he blunders early, seems much more prone to stringing mistakes together. Far too many negatives there to be taking any less than 7/2 about him and unless summer makes a sudden return he’ll go off much shorter. Cue Card running here bothers me too, from a punting viewpoint as well as sentimentally.
I’ll be doing a Donald Rumsfeld here – too may unknown unknowns for a bet.
Pretty much agree with all this. Can’t get an angle that I’m happy with.
Will still have a stab at something before the off
I won’t have a bet in this because of the BDM factor. He’s too unpredictable. In his favour is track and ground. Against him is tough opposition in the shape of Sizing John and Cue Card (assuming he gets round). Against him too is the fact that other than running up a hat trick almost 2 years ago (with 2 of the wins at odds on) he hasn’t won two on the trot, although, to be fair, he has sometime been quite highly tried. Also, he looked to have a really hard race at Wetherby.
No question in my mind that given his favourite track and conditions he has the talent to win it, but he could also bomb out. He’s jumped superbly at Haydock but he has a tendency to start making errors in a race and, if he blunders early, seems much more prone to stringing mistakes together. Far too many negatives there to be taking any less than 7/2 about him and unless summer makes a sudden return he’ll go off much shorter. Cue Card running here bothers me too, from a punting viewpoint as well as sentimentally.
I’ll be doing a Donald Rumsfeld here – too may unknown unknowns for a bet.
If I had so much doubt about the 13/8 shot Bristol De Mai that I would want 7/2 to back it. Then taking bookmaker mark ups out of it I’d have a difference between bookmaker’s idea of its chance and my idea of its chance of around 10%. So whatever I thought about the other horses there’d be a bet.
Lay Bristol De Mai at the current 13/8.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.