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Proper competitive handicap this one, and a real tough one to sort out.
Zabeel Prince looks a very worthy favourite to me, and off the back of Fridays win, he’s clearly not stopped progressing, and the 7’s looks very fair to me.
Banskea hasn’t been dropped a pound since his Newbury win in The Spring, but after looking like his mark was beyond him since, his last run was a lot more like it, and he’s another who looks overpriced, with 20’s widely available.
Probably best to wait until the 5 Day Decs, but although I do like Belgian Bill for this, he has next to no chance of getting in, so I will side with Gm Hopkins here. He can bet a bit “hit and miss”, he was certainly below par in this last year, but I can’t get away from his run at Sandown earlier in the year off of this mark. He followed that up by meeting traffic problems in The Betfred Mile, so happy to excuse him that. His run in The Cambridgeshire is also worth a watch, he wasn’t that far away, and to be dropped 3 lbs for that run is ideal. This is his trip, and this is his course I reckon, and worth noting that he won over course and distance last season off of 112, and he’s shown little signs of regression this year. There’s no way he’s an 8lb inferior horse to last year, and I think he’s worth a go at a widely available 20’s. I’ll be disappointed if he can’t make the frame. I’d already bet him each way, but I’ve topped up the win.
Gm Hopkins Win & Each Way 20’s
I thought Gabrial at 33/1 was enormous. He’s on a mark of 105, his lowest since 2015, but was rated as high as 113 when second to Sovereign Debt earlier this season. The last time he ran in a Handicap was when fourth (1 length) in the Lincoln back in April, when effectively racing off this mark (3lb claimer rode him off 108). If Paul Hanagan chose him that would be very significant for me, but if Adam McNamara gets the leg up I’d be delighted to choose Gabrial off a mark of 102. He’s got decent course form and goes on any ground.
Lord glitters at 10/1
Hopefully ridden more forward, he looks to be improving, would have won lto should he have been ridden sooner
Fair shout for Gabrial, Degaussed, and Ham, that Lord Glitters 10’s is long gone, and best priced 7’s now.
Bravery, who always catches my eye, needs 9 to come out, and that has to be unlikely here, but he still appeals at 33’s, while Belgian Bill needs just the 11 to come out. So close.
With that pair unlikely to get in, my second choice may just be Hors De Combat, who wasn’t totally without hope at Royal Ascot, and seemed to be in form last time out. 25’s looks big, but I’m torn between going in just now, as should Belgian Bill miraculously sneak in, that would give me 3 in this, so probably just wait just now. This might be the sensible approach, as Hors has missed a couple of engagements, and I’ll gladly sacrifice a couple of points to see him actually make the gig.
I am on QASSEM and RAISING SAND here Bobby at 16/1 and 14/1
Qassem is pretty consistent if you ignore the Cambridgeshire which is easy considering it was far too prominent too early and probably drawn the wrong side too!!
Raising Sand for me has been screaming for amile and why Jamie has run him in two hot seven furlong races beggars belief IMO. I know it ran well in both those races but a strong run mile at Ascot will suit it down to the ground!!I do think Zabeel could be completely different class to these though but 5/1 is not my kind of price!!
Good luck Raymo with Raising Sand, I was so close to siding with him. In the end I went for Hors De Combat R 25-1 ew. Vtc I think he is definitely good value at those odds
I bet Zabeel Prince for this last week at 10-1, and it is very rare for me to get a run on the price like that. I think this is a fair horse and he could have a lot more improvement to come
I am praying Century Dream gets entered here.
I’m not the sort of punter that likes backing horses in competitive handicaps after they’ve just won but his form looks as though he’s a group horse in waiting. He’s still quite low in the handicap for this and, if he is entered at the 48 hour stage, I’ll be having a chunk of the current 20/1 if that is still available.
Century Dream is one I have kept on eye on MOM and IMO he wants give in the ground.
If the weather forecast is right and it comes up soft I shall be investing but if the rain stays away I will be leaving him alone for this.I have had some more on Qassem now Frankie is riding it at 16/1
Century Dream is one I have kept on eye on MOM and IMO he wants give in the ground.
If the weather forecast is right and it comes up soft I shall be investing but if the rain stays away I will be leaving him alone for this.I have had some more on Qassem now Frankie is riding it at 16/1
I too would leave him if it stays firm but I’m hearing the forecast expects rain.
Century dream is a reserve MOM. So money back if he doesn’t get in!
I am happy with Qassem at the price and have added WITHERNSEA at 28/1 in case the rain comes.Century dream is a reserve MOM. So money back if he doesn’t get in!
I am happy with Qassem at the price and have added WITHERNSEA at 28/1 in case the rain comes.So if he definetely doesn’t run, I’ll get my bet voided?
I’ve gone for Linguistic. He’s really well bred and pretty lightly raced. The draw in 1 means he should be closest to the fastest part of the track, and I thought he shaped last time out like stepping back to a mile will suit.
As I said on another thread, I did Zabeel Prince at 5/1 and expect to see him halve in price by race time. The “Getting out gophers” will be loading up to back him.
He’s improving quickly and looks a Group horse in the making. Successful in ready style at York last time, he has already won twice on soft ground.
At Yarmouth he was odds-on for a Handicap on soft going and it ended up being nothing more than a nice piece of work, as he came clear in easy style.
David O’Meara’s Lord Glitters is the obvious danger. The ex French horse ran well when second to Accidental Agent off the same weight last time and he looked like he might have won with another furlong to travel. He gets that now but I just feel Zabeel Prince could improve more being so lightly raced. It looks tough for Accidental Agent now giving 5 lbs to Lord Glitters over a furlong further.
I’ll be very disappointed if Zabeel Prince doesn’t prove a cut above these.
Zabeel Prince 5/1 and Lord Glitters the danger.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
“I’ll be very disappointed if Zabeel Prince doesn’t prove a cut above these.
Zabeel Prince 5/1 and Lord Glitters the danger.”
I have reached exactly the same conclusions. I suspect that the Balmoral has long been ZP’s main target and whatever his winning margin lto he would have been off the same mark tomorrow, so his then jockey didn’t have artificially to reduce the distance by which he outclassed the others (if he wins the Balmoral we won’t see him in another handicap for a long while, if ever, so his OR becomes irrelevant). He will have to show considerable further improvement to win, much more so than Lord Glitters whose 2nd was in a much classier race, so not a racing certainty but in my view a very probable winner.
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