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Is Alpha Centauri the good thing here?
Keeping half an eye on Armum, a Society Rock half-sister to Ardad.
The concern for me is the quality of opposition she faced in her listed victory. They were more or less the same bunch she beat in her maiden and none of them have come out again.
She did quicken clear tidily though by 5 lengths and that’s impressive enough over 6f.
The maiden she won hasn’t really worked out either apart from beating Joseph O’Brien’s Now You’re Talking over 6 lengths.
That one finished a head in front of Clemmie next time (fitness advantage) and outran her odds of 66/1 to finish 4th in the Queen Mary.I guess what I’m trying to say is, 9/4 is short enough.
I think Hannons Natural is being overlooked a little bit in the market. I backed it on debut at Doncaster and it was hammered before the off and won very cosily. The stables 2yos have been coming on a lot for the run this year and Hannon himself said that she will improve loads for the run, he seems to think it’s his best juvenile.
I’ve had a small bet on her for today and a very small speculative bet on the Albany & 1000 Guineas double at 150/1 just off the fact that the trainer is already talking about next years Guineas.
I think Alpha Centauri has looked awesome so far this year though and she could be really hard to beat – it’s a very hot looking race today.
I think 3/1 Alpha Centauri is an act of charity by the bookmakers, considering the fair price is 3.85. The lack of confidence is probably down to the other Harrington hotpot Brother Bear being turned over, but he still had every chance of winning in what was a much more competitive affair. Alpha Centauri was 15/8 not so long and nothing has really come out of the woodwork to make me think that shouldn’t be her SP. We know she goes on the ground, and she even has some collateral form with Clemmie through Now You’re Talking. The fact that the track has been watered will probably only help her.
I took 9/4 last night.
She’s such a huge filly according to Harrington who said she was like a four year old colt. And we know that the huge horses sometimes just overpower other two year as we have seen from Wesley wards winners over the year – asides from the great Lady Aurelia who is simply just all class.
I saw 5/2 on Alpha Centauri and snapped at it last night so I’m a bit dismayed to see her drift to 11/4 at the moment. There seems to be a lot of confidence behind this filly and she looks like she’s going to take a world of beating if she turns up today. I also couldn’t resist taking the 10/1 on Fairyland. This was one of the more talked about Ward horses going into this week and he just seems too overpriced to let go. My insane(ish) each-way bet is Actress at 50/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places with Bet365) as I’m sure O’Brien wouldn’t have brought her over unless he felt she’d acquit herself with credit and will be better suited by this ground than last time.
This looks like a really good renewal. Personally I wouldn’t take 4/1 Alpha Centauri. She has been impressive but her form and speed figures are hardly standouts against similarly good yolks like Black Sails.
I did Black Sails as a saver at 10/1. She looks a filly who could be class and she moves like she will be fine on the ground. She was the clear danger in my eyes.
I think Clemmie is a silly price. She made a good debut, staying on for third but had looked outpaced early. She will need to start faster now and although Now You’re Talking ran well in the Queen Mary, the winner was beaten fav next time and it was a maiden where the first 7 home were beaten heads and necks in bunch finish. A maiden taking on so many promising winners in a big field, at odds of 6/1 is not my idea of any value.
Bookies can’t give Fairyland away. The Ward runners have not set the world alight this week and I prefer them at 5F to 6F anyway. Wesley said, albeit reluctantly, that Happy Like A Fool was his best shot. This looks tougher for Fairyland at the 6F.
Hannon’s Natural is very promising and cost £300,000. Progress is surely assured but that was a six and a half furlong race on soft and this will be a sharper test. Not much to write home about from her Doncaster maiden win, the nearest fillies both stepped up to 7F next time they ran and were beaten. The third filly was beaten further the next time out and I just wonder about the strength of the form
I hope Alpha Centauri can handle the ground and set herself up as the leading prospect for the Guineas next year. I stuck a fiver on her for the 1000 Guineas at 20/1, as a starter for five, in the annual challenge.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jason Weaver has just told us that Alpha Centauri only weighs 20 kg less than Gold Cup winner Sizing John. Not bad for a 2YO filly
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A sickener but the two were well clear. A tad short of room but the main factor is that Alpha Centauri needs 7F now. I am happy enough from a Guineas point of view. She should shorten on the heads of that effort.
Clemmie was a silly price, as was Snowflakes at the early 10/1.
Annoying that she couldn’t win today but Alpha Centauri is probably ante-post favourite for the Moyglare over 7F.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
First two were very very impressive.
I got some nice EW money with Mistress Venice @101 thanks to Bet365 improved terms. Ran a stormer in 4th.
A sickener but the two were well clear. A tad short of room but the main factor is that Alpha Centauri needs 7F now. I am happy enough from a Guineas point of view. She should shorten on the heads of that effort.
Clemmie was a silly price, as was Snowflakes at the early 10/1.
Annoying that she couldn’t win today but Alpha Centauri is probably ante-post favourite for the Moyglare over 7F.
Agree with you there Steve. No market as of yet for the Moyglare, but I’ve taken 20/1 for the Guineas, which is more than fair I think. That price could change drastically depending on how September performs tomorrow. If I could get a price on the winner for the French Guineas I’d be interested in backing.
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