King George 2016

The Ante-Post King wrote:

all these big prices are worth taking,particularly e/w as he’d a cert for a place….If he does run.

… I agree “If he does run”, that’s a big “IF”, you can’t take that non-runner risk out of the bet. Every horse does not have the same chance of running. If it does run then 8/1 or 10/1 will be enormous, but is unlikely to run.
From the supposedly generous price of Thistlecrack it is obvious has a less than 33% chance of turning up, yet you’ve backed it @ 2/1.

Of course If it runs it’ll be odds-on for the place.
I’d want more than 2/1 for it to run, let alone place!

Gingertipster wrote:

The Ante-Post King wrote:

all these big prices are worth taking,particularly e/w as he’d a cert for a place….If he does run.

… I agree “If he does run”, that’s a big “IF”, you can’t take that non-runner risk out of the bet. Every horse does not have the same chance of running. If it does run then 8/1 or 10/1 will be enormous, but is unlikely to run.
From the supposedly generous price of Thistlecrack it is obvious has a less than 33% chance of turning up, yet you’ve backed it @ 2/1.

Of course If it runs it’ll be odds-on for the place.
I’d want more than 2/1 for it to run, let alone place!

Your opinion is he’s unlikely to run,my opinion is he will run…Official line is he’s still in it and thats all that matters.You dear boy spend far too much time associating odds to events actually occurring I have the total opposite view to you in I back all my Ante-Post horses with the ‘he will run’ attitude,if I took your stance on things I’d have never put up a single Ante-Post winner on here….

Steeplechasing wrote:

GT, why do you think he will not run?

I think Thistlecrack probably will not run because – unless he can make all – I believe it is too soon. If Coneygree runs he will not be allowed to make all.

At Cheltenham the problem in Thistlecrack’s jumping came at open ditches when another horse was in front of him. Seemingly wanting to take off when the leader took off. Scudamore also making deliberate movement to race wide when not leading, so as to be further away from his rival (to jump). Surprised connections did not choose to take a lead at Newbury to give experience of following horses. Not to do so makes me think there’s (at the moment) a weakness – maybe they just wanted a clear round of jumping. Now he’s got that, I’d expect him to be reigned back (at least slightly) next time. If so, it’ll be easier doing something he’s not done yet against novices than it would be against established Grade 1 horses. ie If Coneygree runs in the King George Thistlecrack will need to do something he’s never done yet – jumping well over fences with at least one horse in front of him. If making mistakes in the Kauto Star he could change mid-race (like Cheltenham). Where as against Coneygree it’s unlikely he’ll be allowed to lead. Or rather… if trying to make all against Coneygree in all probability Thistlecrack will be going too fast for his own good (pace will be too strong). Even worse scenario would be taken on up front by a bold, sound jumping front runner who could see Thistlecrack on the floor. Setting the horse back and may not recover in time for Cheltenham.

Can’t blame connections keeping options open because it depends who’s in the field. If Coneygree does not run – and if there are no other top quality front runners – then it would be worth thinking seriously about the King George. Because it is far more likely he’ll be able to make all – something he has done well before.

Gingertipster wrote:

steeplechasing wrote:

GT, why do you think he will not run?

I think Thistlecrack probably will not run because – unless he can make all – I believe it is too soon. If Coneygree runs he will not be allowed to make all.

At Cheltenham the problem in Thistlecrack’s jumping came at open ditches when another horse was in front of him. Seemingly wanting to take off when the leader took off. Scudamore also making deliberate movement to race wide when not leading, so as to be further away from his rival (to jump). Surprised connections did not choose to take a lead at Newbury to give experience of following horses. Not to do so makes me think there’s (at the moment) a weakness – maybe they just wanted a clear round of jumping. Now he’s got that, I’d expect him to be reigned back (at least slightly) next time. If so, it’ll be easier doing something he’s not done yet against novices than it would be against established Grade 1 horses. ie If Coneygree runs in the King George Thistlecrack will need to do something he’s never done yet – jumping well over fences with at least one horse in front of him. If making mistakes in the Kauto Star he could change mid-race (like Cheltenham). Where as against Coneygree it’s unlikely he’ll be allowed to lead. Or rather… if trying to make all against Coneygree in all probability Thistlecrack will be going too fast for his own good (pace will be too strong). Even worse scenario would be taken on up front by a bold, sound jumping front runner who could see Thistlecrack on the floor. Setting the horse back and may not recover in time for Cheltenham.

Can’t blame connections keeping options open because it depends who’s in the field. If Coneygree does not run – and if there are no other top quality front runners – then it would be worth thinking seriously about the King George. Because it is far more likely he’ll be able to make all – something he has done well before.

All that waffle above explains clearly why you are unable to select 1 horse in a race Ginge,you over-analyse every horse so inevitably finding ridiculous reasons to put yourself off.Your confidence in being able to just pick one horse is non-existent because of this and thats why you scattergun races with half the bloody field running for you..In your world you think you are winning but all the ‘Value’ you preach is being squeezed like a lemon out of every other ‘Saver’ you add to every race you bet on.Thistlecrack could be put in a race anywhere and still win,he doesn’t need to make all,he’s a machine..Running him in the ‘Feltham’ would be the logical choice if he was 6-7yo,he’s not he’s a 8yo who jumps like a seasoned pro…Its the King George for him pal and you are missing out on all the Value 12’s down to 15/2 quoted on this thread alone..Notice all the good judges are taking it pal.

Mark, I’m not having a go here, but what you have listed are the reasons you believe he should not run.

Your concerns about his issues – some of which might well be valid – have not been mentioned by connections. Had Tizz said “We’d just like to give him more experience upsides or behind others as we’re not quite so sure he’d jump as well in those circumstances”, then you’d have a case.

In taking an objective of view on whether he will/will not run, you cannot reasonably cite your concerns, only your reading of the likely factual circumstances (field size, opposition, potential Feltham opposition etc). Admittedly it’s more of a guessing game with the views of connections, but there’s sufficient information in the public domain to have a fair crack at that (see my Snooks/Tizzard post on Thistlecrack debut thread).

Gingertipster wrote:

steeplechasing wrote:

GT, why do you think he will not run?

I think Thistlecrack probably will not run because – unless he can make all – I believe it is too soon. If Coneygree runs he will not be allowed to make all.

At Cheltenham the problem in Thistlecrack’s jumping came at open ditches when another horse was in front of him. Seemingly wanting to take off when the leader took off. Scudamore also making deliberate movement to race wide when not leading, so as to be further away from his rival (to jump). Surprised connections did not choose to take a lead at Newbury to give experience of following horses. Not to do so makes me think there’s (at the moment) a weakness – maybe they just wanted a clear round of jumping. Now he’s got that, I’d expect him to be reigned back (at least slightly) next time. If so, it’ll be easier doing something he’s not done yet against novices than it would be against established Grade 1 horses. ie If Coneygree runs in the King George Thistlecrack will need to do something he’s never done yet – jumping well over fences with at least one horse in front of him. If making mistakes in the Kauto Star he could change mid-race (like Cheltenham). Where as against Coneygree it’s unlikely he’ll be allowed to lead. Or rather… if trying to make all against Coneygree in all probability Thistlecrack will be going too fast for his own good (pace will be too strong). Even worse scenario would be taken on up front by a bold, sound jumping front runner who could see Thistlecrack on the floor. Setting the horse back and may not recover in time for Cheltenham.

Can’t blame connections keeping options open because it depends who’s in the field. If Coneygree does not run – and if there are no other top quality front runners – then it would be worth thinking seriously about the King George. Because it is far more likely he’ll be able to make all – something he has done well before.

Been reading this one over the last couple of days and I kind of agree with both of you tbh. I too think he should run Feltham even if the race cuts up massively. The difference of beating average horses around Newbury to running against 2 or 3 of the best chasers in Europe is a completely different task. Yes he is 8 which means he doesn’t have as much time as your expext for a novice but I think there’s more potential damage to be done for the Gold Cup by going to the KG than good. The better option in my view is running in the feltham, once more mid January and perhaps once again 3 weeks after that. Against nothing flashy but just to keep him learning over the fences on a racetrack alongside other horses. A crowded schooling session in race conditions if you like.

However, if I had 8/1 on Cue Card, the biggest danger to the huge win would be if suddenly the owners decide they want Thistlecrack to run. Whilst he’s a big price, I’d do exactly as TAPK has some and play Thistlecrack as a saver. When you are on at 8/1, the extra £100 isn’t a massive amount in comparison just as a safety net.

So I kinda can see both arguments here.

Steeplechasing wrote:

Mark, I’m not having a go here, but what you have listed are the reasons you believe he should not run.

Your concerns about his issues – some of which might well be valid – have not been mentioned by connections. Had Tizz said “We’d just like to give him more experience upsides or behind others as we’re not quite so sure he’d jump as well in those circumstances”, then you’d have a case.

In taking an objective of view on whether he will/will not run, you cannot reasonably cite your concerns, only your reading of the likely factual circumstances (field size, opposition, potential Feltham opposition etc). Admittedly it’s more of a guessing game with the views of connections, but there’s sufficient information in the public domain to have a fair crack at that (see my Snooks/Tizzard post on Thistlecrack debut thread).

imo You’re taking far too much notice of what connections say Joe.
Connections are not going to tell all their rivals of weaknesses in their horses, otherwise rivals will be more likely to play on those weaknesses during races. Therefore, they’re not going to say “We’d just like to give him more experience upsides or behind others as we’re not quite so sure he’d jump as well in those circumstances”. They’d be idiots if they did.

Tizzards know that if rivals think they’ll run both Cue Card and Thistlecrack in the King George, then there’s a much better chance of fewer rivals turning up, and particularly Coneygree. If able to persuade the Bradstocks to go to Ireland instead, then:

A) Cue Card (Tizzards) will have a better chance of winning.
or
B) Thistlecrack would be worth running provided there are no other front-runners.
Thistlecrack may well take his chance.

We’ve seen team Mullins put their very best horses in three or four races over the last couple of weeks, each time being put in the market at a price which suggested it would not turn up… And a lesser light turns up on the day. Were his best horses ever going to run?

Native River was put in the Welsh National at a price which suggested he would not run, he won’t.

Unless there’s an out and out decision spoken by connections I prefer to do my own analysis of the race/horse and then work out what I’d do if I were the owner and trainer. At the moment, I can see why the owner would like to run (but they don’t often have the knowledge/analysis of the trainer). Trainer needs to keep her happy and not seem biased towards another stable star, so you’d expect a lot of spoken uncertainty by the Tizzards. However, the Snooks also said they’d listen to the Tizzard’s advice. I think there’s a big probability that advive will eventually be the Kauto Star (for reasons I’ve already given) – unless Coneygree goes elsewhere.

Gingertipster wrote:

Middle_Of_March wrote:

However, if I had 8/1 on Cue Card, the biggest danger to the huge win would be if suddenly the owners decide they want Thistlecrack to run. Whilst he’s a big price, I’d do exactly as TAPK has some and play Thistlecrack as a saver.

Playing Thistlecrack “as a saver” @ 10/1 or 8/1 I can understand, MoM; backing Thistlecrack to win enough to cover the Cue Card bet makes fairly good sense. But TAPK has backed Thistlecrack to win more than if Cue Card won. A saver tenner would only turn Cue Card 8/1 in to 7.18/1 with money back if Thistlecrack wins. As it is, TAPK’s bets turn Cue Card 8/1 in to 7/2 in Thistlecrack’s absence.

A saver in terms of covering the loss of Cue Card being odds on favourite to potentially being beat. His chance of making a major profit is massive now with Thistlecrack in as well on the off chance he turns up.