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The way it seems to me is that you are getting Value but not enough,
To be absolutely sure of coming out ahead on 7% chances, in the short to medium term, say 1-3 years, then 66/1 is the price you should be looking for for the 7% chance.
If as you say the 33/1 is really a 50/1 shot then a losing run of 50 in the hundred bets is a 11.945 % likely to happen which is a good bit more than the 7% chance of winning, even at 33/1.
These are only thoughts, so I could miles off.
The amount of Margin For Error a punter has is up to him/her. But in reality I’d say if a punter needs a big margin then he/she is not accurate enough to show a profit anyway. In all my 30 years of betting have never come across something I believed a fair 7% that’s available @ 66/1 (1.5%). When 7 ‘/, 1.5 = 4.67, then something available at four and two thirds times my assessment just does not happen, I wish!
Right Ginger,
I have had a brainwave, lets flip it on its head.
You seem to be betting on the odds shortening,You sometimes get massive value near to the Edge needed but you don’t know it, If ON THE DAY the horse goes off at 12/1 and then you have 33/1.
100 runs again
7% chance of winning, 47.426% of hitting a losing run of 33, the odds are slightly in your favour, but as previously, in the long run, no good.
However, should your horse shorten to 7/1, 6/1, 5/1, ON THE DAY, then you get nearer to the edge you need12% chance of win, chance of losing run of 33. 9.654%. your edge. 4.1
14% chance of win, chance of losing run of 33. 7.077%. your edge. 4.827
16% chance of win, chance of losing run of 33. 3.696%. your edge. 5.517
I suggest laying off your bet if its not going to go shorter than 12/1 ON THE DAY, You do have the opportunity to get the edge needed, long term, if the SP is 50% greater probability than that you have calculated.
I will have to do some work on the relationship between calculated chance and actual SP to see if the relationship is linear in its proportions. Perhaps you should and see where your winners fall?
Anti post betting can be a good thing for your approach, probably why the bookies don’t like it. Mullins though is doing everyone a favour pulling them out, unless you are on one of his. LOL. I cannot see how this will work, long term, on day of race betting, unless you drop on a massive steamer, with such a narrow edge.
I hope that flippin makes sense and I am still not sure if I have a good handle on it or am a soddin’ clown.
SC,
Do you understand that a punter only needs 3% of his/her bets of 33/1 to make a profit?
100 bets of 1 point all @ 33/1:
97 bets lose. -97
3 bets win, returning 34 points each time. 34 X 3 = 102 returned.
100 staked, 102 returned, 102 – 100 = +2 points profit.What would happen if I find 100 horses that have a 7% chance of winning which are all available @ 33/1?
100 bets of 1 point all @ 33/1:
93 bets lose. -93
7 bets win, returning 34 points each time. 34 X 7 = 238 returned
100 staked, 238 returned, 238 – 100 = +138 points profitNo matter what the number of races is I expect to win 7% of my bets that I assess as 7% chances.
Value Is EverythingWow, this makes investing so complicated! I’ve said it before, value in itself is overrated! Fine if you can back every horse in a race and still make a profit. Otherwise, if you read the form book well and your opinion is correct enough of the time you will make money by keeping it simple. Instead of backing a plethora of horses you don’t think will win, back your opinion, minimise backing against yourself.
How do you know your opinion is “correct” GM?
If you “read the form book well” and back the horse/s you believe have the best chance of winning, you will NOT win in the long run. Because the bookies odds compilers have gone through the race and come to an opinion of the chances of ALL horses, including those with the best chance of winning. So if a bookies odds compiler believes the horse with the best chance of winning has a 33% chance (fair 2/1) the bookie adds a mark up and offers 15/8 (sometimes 7/4). Punters that go only by the horse they consider the “best chance” lose out because they are not taking value.
If you are not interested in “value” then:
You are happy to win 33% of your 15/8 bets?
You are happy to win 20% of your 3/1 bets?
You are happy to win 8% of your 10/1 bets?
…and you will lose in the long run.Many punters believe they make a profit because backing horses with the best chance of winning provides a high strike rate. However, in practice that high strike rate is not high enough.
Value Is EverythingThe bookies prices have been perfected over hundreds of years so can be relied upon to be representative of the chance cant they?
To profit at betting a punter must identify when the bookie/echange has got it wrong – at whatever the price.
Value Is EverythingApproaching a race without preconception, or bias towards short or long odds, my opinions throw up plenty enough longshots to be successful (given that backing short ones is just so much to-ing and fro-ing, though I do anyway for the hell of it!) I keep it simple, back to even stakes (which minimises losses), usually 1 horse per race to Win or, if horse happens to be 16/1 or bigger, E/W.
What makes you back a 16/1 shot?
Could it be that you think it is “value”, GM?Value Is EverythingHello Ginger,
Thanks for replying and excuse me for being Pedantic. Its doing my head in this.
If you back horses at 33/1 their true chance is 71/1 1.4%
The probability that you will hit 70 losers on the trot in that 100 bets is 52.96% So I suppose you will get 1 winner from a hundred bets. 100 pts staked 34 recovered at a loss of 66 pts
A perfect world strike pattern as you demonstrate 33/1 (ignoring the fact that its really 71/1) will indeed show a small profit, but due to Randomness the probability that 33 losers on the trot will occur is 97.973%, you are almost certain to hit a losing streak where even if it wins you will not recover stakes. If you could find something an event is almost 98% certain to happen would you back it?
Over the last five years 82,968 horses have ran at SP of 33/1, of those 1144 horses won, 1.4% almost exactly as your 66/1 example gave that as the bookies margin.
You would have to find 2,5 times the number of winners that actually won to come out ahead.
I have lost my train of thought.. so will come back later to finish it off.
The example only shows sp though Space Cowboy. Many 33/1 price taken can end up shorter at sp
also you wouldn’t back every single 33/1 shot just the ones that you thought should be shorterBlackbeard to conquer the World
If you could find something an event is almost 98% certain to happen would you back it?
Depends on the odds quoted?
the actual LLR in that series of “bets” is 502
therefor you will have losing runs of 501 500 499 488 450 300 200 100 all the way down to 33 etc.
If you have got an edge of a few percent its not enough at those prices, as I previously tried to explain. Its virtually impossible to come out ahead in the long run with 7% 33/1, with 7% chance at 70/1 you will. Of course only you know the outcome of all bets but you could face a random streak of bad luck that will put you on your arse.
The example only shows sp though Space Cowboy. Many 33/1 price taken can end up shorter at sp
also you wouldn’t back every single 33/1 shot just the ones that you thought should be shorterBINGO
That is contributing to your edge! Look at the examples I gave where the SP is shorter than the Calculated odds and therefor probability higher giving a bigger edge.
If you could find something an event is almost 98% certain to happen would you back it?
Depends on the odds quoted?
1/33 as in the example above.
Over the last five years 82,968 horses have ran at SP of 33/1, of those 1144 horses won, 1.4% almost exactly as your 66/1 example gave that as the bookies margin.
You would have to find 2,5 times the number of winners that actually won to come out ahead.
I have lost my train of thought.. so will come back later to finish it off.
I see where you are going wrong now SC.
It does NOT matter that the average 33/1 shot wins 1.4%. Because I am NOT backing every 33/1 shot.
The average SP 33/1 shot might only have a 1.4% chance, but (and this is important) not every 33/1 shot has the same chance of winning.
Whatever the price an individual horse is, its actual chance is only an opinion.
I do NOT back the vast majority of 33/1 shots, I am very selective and ONLY back 33/1 shots that I believe are OVER-PRICED/value.
MY 33/1 bets win more than 3%, therefore I make a profit.Value Is Everythingnwalton,
I believe The New One has a 7% chance of winning. Therefore – in truth – I believe he has a much greater (93%) chance of losing (7 + 93 = 100). Bookies were offering 33/1. At 33/1 a punter only needs a 2.94% strike rate at level stakes to break even, so imo The New One is excellent value @ 33/1. My idea of his chance is 7% and 33/1 = 2.94%, therefore 7 – 2.94 = 4.06% better than what I believe is its true chance.Ginger,
I instigated this discussion because of the above comment and in an attempt to learn whats going on. Due to you and drone I have begun to understand an edge and its measurement. Thanks. What I have attempted to illustrate is that although you have value it is not enough. I have shown the specific scenarios and circumstances where I think you can improve your edge. Lets not forget that the race is 4 months away and the horse may not even run. The figures I gave are for actual results of races ran, I suspect that given the large number of anti post races and horses therin at the magical 33/1 if the true number of 33/1 shots bet on were included then the Percentage could well fall below 1.
I will leave it at this, you have backed a horse that currently has about a 1.4% chance 70/1 at 33/1 2.9%. I think that your edge your edge 7-2.9 . 4.1 is virtually insignificant in the long term at those prices. Its 50/50 that you will encounter a losing run of 33 at your chance 7%, at the true odds 1.4% it is 98% likely that you will encounter a 33 run losing streak, They are your “calculated” chances and the reality.
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