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GT you say about books odds compilers i believe they make ricks and have not read the form book/race watched to well.When ever i have a bet i think it will win(surly thats the idea/belief)we all know in reality that dont happen,but i would back my opinion against most odds compilers.thats not trying to big myself up,just that i work hard at the game.
I am not a value seeker as such,though i do have a price in mind that i want to play at.The only time i would go for value is in boxing,if i cant split wto boxers 5/6 the pair(on my tissue) and one book goes up 2/1 one of them i would bet then on the value notion.GT you say about books odds compilers i believe they make ricks and have not read the form book/race watched to well.When ever i have a bet i think it will win(surly thats the idea/belief)we all know in reality that dont happen,but i would back my opinion against most odds compilers.thats not trying to big myself up,just that i work hard at the game.
I am not a value seeker as such,though i do have a price in mind that i want to play at.The only time i would go for value is in boxing,if i cant split wto boxers 5/6 the pair(on my tissue) and one book goes up 2/1 one of them i would bet then on the value notion.I would go further than that, they are mostly clueless. just doing the same as the mug punter, speed going distance, blah blah blah.
Ginger,
I instigated this discussion because of the above comment and in an attempt to learn whats going on. Due to you and drone I have begun to understand an edge and its measurement. Thanks. What I have attempted to illustrate is that although you have value it is not enough. I have shown the specific scenarios and circumstances where I think you can improve your edge. Lets not forget that the race is 4 months away and the horse may not even run. The figures I gave are for actual results of races ran, I suspect that given the large number of anti post races and horses therin at the magical 33/1 if the true number of 33/1 shots bet on were included then the Percentage could well fall below 1.
I will leave it at this, you have backed a horse that currently has about a 1.4% chance 70/1 at 33/1 2.9%. I think that your edge your edge 7-2.9 . 4.1 is virtually insignificant in the long term at those prices. Its 50/50 that you will encounter a losing run of 33 at your chance 7%, at the true odds 1.4% it is 98% likely that you will encounter a 33 run losing streak, They are your “calculated” chances and the reality.
Oh SC, :lol:
No, I have NOT “backed a horse that currently has about a 1.4% chance”.
…And no, they are not MY “calculated chances“, you’ve used what the calculation would be if I was backing ALL SP 33/1 shots. I am not.You don’t appear to have taken any notice of my previous posts and unfortunately unless understanding them you will not learn about “edge and its measurement”. Sadly, I can not put it any simpler than my previous posts.
Sorry, I give up.
Value Is EverythingGT you say about books odds compilers i believe they make ricks and have not read the form book/race watched to well.When ever i have a bet i think it will win(surly thats the idea/belief)we all know in reality that dont happen,but i would back my opinion against most odds compilers.thats not trying to big myself up,just that i work hard at the game.
I am not a value seeker as such,though i do have a price in mind that i want to play at.The only time i would go for value is in boxing,if i cant split wto boxers 5/6 the pair(on my tissue) and one book goes up 2/1 one of them i would bet then on the value notion.You say “Whenever i have a bet i think it will win(surly thats the idea/belief)”, nwalton.
Is that really the case?
Do you believe every horse you bet on really has a better chance of winning than losing?
If so, unless you’ve got a better than 50% strike rate you are wrong.You say “though i do have a price in mind that i want to play at”.
Then you ARE a “value seeker” – that is exactly what a value seeker does – “backing my opinion against most odds compilers”.
Value Is EverythingGT you say about books odds compilers i believe they make ricks and have not read the form book/race watched to well.When ever i have a bet i think it will win(surly thats the idea/belief)we all know in reality that dont happen,but i would back my opinion against most odds compilers.thats not trying to big myself up,just that i work hard at the game.
I am not a value seeker as such,though i do have a price in mind that i want to play at.The only time i would go for value is in boxing,if i cant split wto boxers 5/6 the pair(on my tissue) and one book goes up 2/1 one of them i would bet then on the value notion.You say “Whenever i have a bet i think it will win(surly thats the idea/belief)”, nwalton.
Is that really the case?
Do you believe every horse you bet on really has a better chance of winning than losing?
If so, unless you’ve got a better than 50% strike rate you are wrong.You say “though i do have a price in mind that i want to play at”.
Then you ARE a “value seeker” – that is exactly what a value seeker does – “backing my opinion against most odds compilers”.What if hes got 4/1
Wow, you guys have really hijacked this thread!
Thought the thread was finished Joliff.
Value Is Everythingyes it is really the case,i dont make a selection and think well its value but it will lose.
Every bet i strike i am of the belief it will win,i will say again but obviously that is not the case that they will all win.
Again i am not a value seeker i am a winner seeker,i have a price in mind if i dont get that i dont play.If i think a horse wont win and put it in at 4s if the books go 6s because that is value i dont then back it,because i dont think it will win
My way of working is i back a horse because i think it will win,if i get my price or bigger i am more than happyGOOD!
Been calculating away all day coming up with sums and explanations and missed an evens shot at 5/1
My way of working is i back a horse because i think it will win,if i get my price or bigger i am more than happy
What do you mean by “if I get my price or bigger I am more than happy”?
Is “your price” always odds-on or not?
If “your price” is anything but odds-on then it is impossible to think “it will win”. Because if any of “your price”s are odds-against then even in your opinion what you’re actually saying is it has a better chance of losing than winning. So you’re not “believing it will win”.Even if “Your Price” is 6/4 then what you’re actually saying is in your own opinion it has a 40% chance of winning and a 60% chance of losing. ie You are saying it will probably lose.
Value Is EverythingGinger please read what I put I think every selection I back will win you work in an entirely different way.you can look at the profit on here or on my twitter account.we all don’t work by your maths value method.it may work for you but I could not be backing 6/7 selections in one race,not knocking it but it’s not for me.by the way I very rarely back odds on which can also be checked on here or on twitter,but I am sure you will tell me I am 40 percent wrong in that assumption
This is far too convoluted for me. If my selection is available at longer odds than I believe it should be , then that is a value bet to me . The rest is just semantic mathematics of dubious use in the real world of betting
Ginger please read what I put I think every selection I back will win you work in an entirely different way.you can look at the profit on here or on my twitter account.we all don’t work by your maths value method.it may work for you but I could not be backing 6/7 selections in one race,not knocking it but it’s not for me.by the way I very rarely back odds on which can also be checked on here or on twitter,but I am sure you will tell me I am 40 percent wrong in that assumption
It is you who described your own betting as:
if i get my price or bigger i am more than happy
If you are doing that, then you may not like calling it “value seeking”, but that is what you’re doing. You back a horse if you can get your price or bigger, I back a horse if I can get my price or bigger. In saying you bet “my price or bigger” you are using maths whether you like it or not.
Value Is Everything
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