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Great to see him win so easily, perfect display of jumping, he looked like he was enjoying himself.
Now for the big one. He’s 9/1 fav to repeat last years victory and Leighton Aspell is up for the hat
trick.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I wouldn’t exactly say Many Clouds improved to win today. Third horse, Carrigdhoun keeps the form down. But there’s every indication Many Clouds is capable of improvement; remembering connections struggled to get him there last year and many in the Sherwood yard thought the horse over the top for the season.
Grand National looks like a two horse race, Many Clouds V The Last Samuri.
Value Is EverythingReally liked Many Clouds performance today. Outjumped everything, outstayed everything in other words pure class. However his form has been rock solid all year, with perhaps his first run which was needed. All this doesn’t mean he’ll win the National on April 9th, but Oliver Sherwood has given Many Clouds and Leighton Aspell the best chance possible.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.I watched the race from the in-field at Kelso today. Some of Many Clouds leaps were breathtaking and it’s that sort of performance that illustrates why this sport is so great.
Looked to me as if Oliver Sherwood had left a little to work on before the National. Presumably he’ll be on tick-over for a while and then final tune up for Aintree.
A side from the above can I big up Carrigdhoun, part owned by a mate of a mate, who ran a best ever race today. Looked under the cosh when dropping back form four out but saw his race out to the line for third place.
Rob
Whatever the merit of the form today, he did look a bit more like his old self in his demeanour, especially after he’d warmed up. Ears remained pricked and inquisitive pretty much throughout and he looked to have much of his old finishing power back.
Fingers crossed
I watched the race from the in-field at Kelso today. Some of Many Clouds leaps were breathtaking and it’s that sort of performance that illustrates why this sport is so great.
Looked to me as if Oliver Sherwood had left a little to work on before the National. Presumably he’ll be on tick-over for a while and then final tune up for Aintree.
A side from the above can I big up Carrigdhoun, part owned by a mate of a mate, who ran a best ever race today. Looked under the cosh when dropping back form four out but saw his race out to the line for third place.
Rob
Do you know whether there was any reason why Carrigdhoun sould’ve improved today Rob?
Sadly – although doubt he’ll go up the full amount – still be hammered by the handicapper for that.
Great run though.
Value Is EverythingI wouldn’t exactly say Many Clouds improved to win today. Third horse, Carrigdhoun keeps the form down. But there’s every indication Many Clouds is capable of improvement; remembering connections struggled to get him there last year and many in the Sherwood yard thought the horse over the top for the season.
Grand National looks like a two horse race, Many Clouds V The Last Samuri.
Why does Carrigdhoun keep the form down. Can’t a 200/1 get third without the form being in question.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.I wouldn’t exactly say Many Clouds improved to win today. Third horse, Carrigdhoun keeps the form down. But there’s every indication Many Clouds is capable of improvement; remembering connections struggled to get him there last year and many in the Sherwood yard thought the horse over the top for the season.
Grand National looks like a two horse race, Many Clouds V The Last Samuri.
Why does Carrigdhoun keep the form down. Can’t a 200/1 get third without the form being in question.
Hence my question to Rob.
It depends on the 200/1 shot, if it’s got improvement in him then yes (eg Terimon @ 500/1 in the Derby) it’s possible the form is what it seems. But on the face of it we are talking about an 11 year old who’s raced 23 times over fences, running in conditions he’s faced before (around 3m on very soft ground). In reality, how often does a horse like that improve?Carrigdhoun went in to the race on a mark of 125 which hadn’t changed in two starts this season.
Many Clouds 166, gave 10 lbs and a 10 3/4 lengths (call it 11) beating to Carrigdhoun. 10 + 11 = 21
125 + 21 So if Caldhoun ran to his 125 Many Clouds could only be rated around 146+ for the performance. Some 20 lbs below his mark.Unioniste on 149, gave 6 lbs and a 3/4, call it 1 length beating. 6 + 1 = 7
125 + 7 So if Caldhoun ran to his 125, Unioniste could only be given a race performance rating of around 132. Some 17 lbs below his mark.
Sausalito Sunrise 163, gave 6 lbs and was a head behind (nothing really).
125 + 6 So if Caldhoun ran to 125, Sausalito could only be rated around 131. Some 32 lbs below his mark.Carrigdhoun’s best ever mark was 132, achieved for finishing 6 lengths second to Virak in April 2015, under very similar conditions (2m7f on soft, racing up with the pace for a long way).
Even if we say Caldhoun came back to his very best mark of 132, Many Clouds would still be 13 lbs below his mark, admittedly you can add a bit to Many Clouds performance for ease of victory. Unioniste 10 lbs below and Sausalito 25 lbs below his.
So:
Did this seemingly thoroughly exposed handicapper Carrigdhoun show improvement?
If so, by how much?If he ran a career best by 10 lbs then it would fit in well with Unioniste running to his mark and Many Clouds running 3 lbs below his (those 3 lbs swallowed up for in the ease of victory). Whilst Sausalito Sunrise was below form, possibly due to a hard race on very soft ground or Hobbs not being in such good form.
But is it realistic to think this particular 11 year old improved 10 lbs?
Or
Did Unioniste and Sausalito run well below their best and that -in turn – enabled Many Clouds to look so impressive?If Rob can tell us Carrigdhoun was having his first run after a wind op, that might put a different light on the race.
I’d love to believe Caldhoun improved massively.
Forgive me if some arrithmatic is wrong. it’s late.
Value Is EverythingGinger, you’re assuming that Carrigdoun ran to his mark and everyting else didn’t.
Many Clouds was eased down near the line so maybe his ratings might be lower than his best. However the second Unioniste, third Carrighdoun and fourth Sausalito Sunrise all finished within a length of each other. Sausalito Sunrise jumping wasn’t fluid so might excuse him being below his best, both the second and third rallied on the home straight. With the third according to racing post running a big race. He was fitted with blinkers and goes well at this venue according to RPRob’s said in his post.
“I watched the race from the in-field at Kelso today. Some of Many Clouds leaps were breathtaking and it’s that sort of performance that illustrates why this sport is so great.Looked to me as if Oliver Sherwood had left a little to work on before the National. Presumably he’ll be on tick-over for a while and then final tune up for Aintree.
A side from the above can I big up Carrigdhoun, part owned by a mate of a mate, who ran a best ever race today. Looked under the cosh when dropping back form four out but saw his race out to the line for third place.
Rob.”
Without a reliable rating system here, Carrigdhoun sounds like he raised his game, to try and beat the placed horses.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.It was Carrigdhoun’s ‘National’; I just wish it had still been an 8 runner race as e carried my ew money. Would love to have been there.
Ginger, you’re assuming that Carrigdoun ran to his mark and everyting else didn’t.
Many Clouds was eased down near the line so maybe his ratings might be lower than his best. However the second Unioniste, third Carrighdoun and fourth Sausalito Sunrise all finished within a length of each other. Sausalito Sunrise jumping wasn’t fluid so might excuse him being below his best, both the second and third rallied on the home straight. With the third according to racing post running a big race. He was fitted with blinkers and goes well at this venue according to RPRob’s said in his post.
“I watched the race from the in-field at Kelso today. Some of Many Clouds leaps were breathtaking and it’s that sort of performance that illustrates why this sport is so great.
Looked to me as if Oliver Sherwood had left a little to work on before the National. Presumably he’ll be on tick-over for a while and then final tune up for Aintree.A side from the above can I big up Carrigdhoun, part owned by a mate of a mate, who ran a best ever race today. Looked under the cosh when dropping back form four out but saw his race out to the line for third place.
Rob.”
Without a reliable rating system here, Carrigdhoun sounds like he raised his game, to try and beat the placed horses.
The fact that Unioniste, Carrigdhoun and Sausalito “all finished within a length of each other” shows not all could have run to their ratings. This is not a handicap. On the evidence of their marks, had all three run to their marks – Sausalito should’ve finished clear of Unioniste who in turn should’ve finished a long way clear of Carrigdhoun.
Am not “assuming” anything Rummy.
Am putting forward six possible scenarios.1/ That Carrigdhoun ran up to his current mark of 125, Unioniste and Sausalito were a long way below form and Many Clouds won a race that fell apart, not needing to be anywhere near his best.
2/ That Carrigdhoun ran to his previous mark of 132, Unioniste and Sausalito weren’t quite as far below form as (1) and Many Clouds won as he liked. That’s not to say Many Clouds wouldn’t have run to his 166 mark if called for.
3/ Somewhere between the 1 and 2.
4/ That the seemingly fully exposed 11 year old Carrigdhoun ran a career best of a full 10 lbs better than he’d ever shown before, Unioniste ran to his mark, Sausalito still well below his best, with Many Clouds running to within 3 lbs of his best mark and would’ve run to that 166 best mark had he been asked to do so.
5/ Somewhere between 2 and 4.
6/ Carrigdhoun improved more than 10 lbs…
My own opinion scenario 5 is the most likely (somewhere between 2 and 4). That Carrigdhoun produced a career best of around 3 to 5 lbs better than he’d previously shown (around 135 to 137) Unioniste was a little below form after getting well behind/outpaced, Sausalito way below form (had a hard race last time out) and Many Clouds just won as he liked, not needing to run to his best mark. However, I believe Many Clouds will put up a career best once given the test of stamina and jumping Aintree provides.
Value Is EverythingGinger by the looks of Racing Post Ratings Carrigdhoun raised his game, and the only reason Many Clouds didn’t achieved a best was he was well clear and eased down near the line. The RPR bears out my initial thought.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.I thought The Romford Pele ran a good race just behind the leaders in the Coral Cup and that should set him up nicely for Aintree. His trainer has stated recently he will be aimed at the race and he should get into the final 40, being number 55 at the moment. i think he has a decent chance at 50-1.
Real pleased with O’Faolains Boy effort in Gold Cup Faded 3 out, but up to then ran the race of his life. Must be worth a punt at 50/1 5 places with Sky Bet. Also worth considering is DON POLI second top weight on 11-9 [mmmm sounds familiar
] usually races prominent, but was held up in Gold Cup. If large fields doesn’t faze him could have a say in the finish.You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Real pleased with O’Faolains Boy effort in Gold Cup Faded 3 out, but up to then ran the race of his life. Must be worth a punt at 50/1 5 places with Sky Bet.
He jumped so well, i genuinely thought we had an upset on our hands going down the back straight (though I’d have been far from upset!). Backed him at 50’s just before the off just incase he ran a screamer and his price got slashed…
Long Run makes his comeback either tomorrow or during the week. I’ll be getting on him before his price tumbles too.
Last year I had a bit on Ballycasey for the National at about 33-1 IIRC. He was making a perfectly satisfactory fist of the first circuit when brought down in the Balthazar King incident at the Canal Turn.
I see no reason not to reinvest at the current 80-1 NRNB (B365). This is a horse who was competitive in top 3m novice chases two years ago – 4th in the RSA and 2nd in the Punchestown version, ahead of Don Cossack. Ran a cracking trial in my view on Thursday to get 5th over too short a trip in the Plate. He now gets in the National of 147, 3lb less than last year equating to 10st 6lb.
I would not be surprised if Ruby doesn’t ride again and if so he’ll be less than half the price.
Last year I had a bit on Ballycasey for the National at about 33-1 IIRC. He was making a perfectly satisfactory fist of the first circuit when brought down in the Balthazar King incident at the Canal Turn.
I see no reason not to reinvest at the current 80-1 NRNB (B365). This is a horse who was competitive in top 3m novice chases two years ago – 4th in the RSA and 2nd in the Punchestown version, ahead of Don Cossack. Ran a cracking trial in my view on Thursday to get 5th over too short a trip in the Plate. He now gets in the National of 147, 3lb less than last year equating to 10st 6lb.
I would not be surprised if Ruby doesn’t ride again and if so he’ll be less than half the price.
Was only prepping the other day too. Fine run and a must for any short list. I got 100/1 a while ago so am pleased with the run. I’m very surprised he hardly moved in the market.
] usually races prominent, but was held up in Gold Cup. If large fields doesn’t faze him could have a say in the finish.
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