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2016 Grand National

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  • #1228150
    Avatar photopeter .h
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    What an awesome, gutsy staying performance by Soll today. Has to be considered for the big race now. We’ll see how the handicapper responds, but that was a great race to watch.

    #1228156
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    What an awesome, gutsy staying performance by Soll today. Has to be considered for the big race now. We’ll see how the handicapper responds, but that was a great race to watch.

    Good performance from Soll Peter, but strangely enough I’d prefer runner-up Aachen for Aintree. Hope Timeform take the “X” (for poor jumper) off his rating. Jumps boldly and well when allowed a view of the front, which he’s got the last few starts. Grand National course favours prominent runners. Goes on good as well as heavy. Soll might run well enough to be placed, but is now an exposed sort who seems to reserve his very best for Sandown.

    Value Is Everything
    #1228159
    Avatar photopeter .h
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    What an awesome, gutsy staying performance by Soll today. Has to be considered for the big race now. We’ll see how the handicapper responds, but that was a great race to watch.

    Good performance from Soll Peter, but strangely enough I’d prefer runner-up Aachen for Aintree. Hope Timeform take the “X” (for poor jumper) off his rating. Jumps boldly and well when allowed a view of the front, which he’s got the last few starts. Grand National course favours prominent runners. Goes on good as well as heavy. Soll might run well enough to be placed, but is now an exposed sort who seems to reserve his very best for Sandown.

    Good assessment, ginge. You know what, i hadn’t even taken on board the runner ups performance! You’d be right to say Aintree would suit I’m just wondering if the owners will be in any rush to enter another over the fences after what happened to Little Josh?

    #1228163
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Good assessment, ginge. You know what, i hadn’t even taken on board the runner ups performance! You’d be right to say Aintree would suit I’m just wondering if the owners will be in any rush to enter another over the fences after what happened to Little Josh?

    Different race now Peter, inner cores are softer/safer, so hope they aren’t put off. I won’t be putting any more on until the weights come out though.

    Value Is Everything
    #1228249
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Was STFD fit last year? Went to Aintree without a recent run but that seemed to be the plan judged by noises coming from the yard beforehand. If fully fit then why did he not stay on better? Fading into 5th after rounding the home turn going best of all. :unsure:

    Value Is Everything
    #1230910
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    I’ve backed Many Clouds, however, am a little concerned he might run too well at the weekend; adding to the weight he’ll need to give away at Aintree. If beating or even just finishing close to the (at the moment) over-rated Gold Cup favourite Djakadam.

    Value Is Everything
    #1230930
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15046

    Double Seven & Golden Wonder both entered up at Punchestown on Sunday.

    Double Seven is set to run in a Pertemps qualifier, and I’d love to see him to take this route, before heading to Aintree, as he looks very very well treated over timber.

    Golden Wonder takes in The Grand National trial, and a nice wee run into a place would suit just fine. Not quite as impressive as Double Seven on his return over hurdles, but entitled to come on for that. The National trial is full of likely looking candidates for Aintree, including Golden Wonders stablemate Lyreen Legend. Never really thought of him as the obvious type for a marathon trip, but he could potentially sneak into the line up on a nice weight, so again, a nice respectable run round might be ideal for him. Not one I’d rush to bet, but I’ll keep him in mind anyway.

    As I said, loads of probable types entered up, and one who’s really impressed me this year is Riverside City, but he would have to win by half the track on Sunday to get in at Aintree, and he might just be one for next year.

    The Skybet Chase this weekend is also likely to feature a few potential National runners, and THM’s fine shout, Holywell, could get a run. The more I think of him, the more I think The National is a good shout, especially with that spring ground he loves, so he’s another who doesn’t necessarily want to win this weekend. The same could be said of Double Ross, who also holds an entry. Very much like the Punchestown race, The Skybet could throw up a few new contenders.

    My main fancies at the moment are The Young Master & Cause of Causes.

    The Young Master is entered up in The Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham, but he’ll be of more interest to me once the weights are framed. I’m hoping to see him take in Kemptons Betbright Chase next month, though no surprise to see him head for the 3 miler at The Festival.

    Cause of Causes looks ridiculously well treated at the moment, and though I always prefer a horse who hasn’t ran in the race before, he looks well set to improve on his finishing position last year, when he was given an awful ride, predictably, by Carberry. I’m hoping to see him take in The Kim Muir en-route.

    Midnight Prayer looks to be heading here off the back of his second place in The Classic Chase, and although I’ve threw a few quid at him on Betfair, he remains risky antepost with him being very fragile.

    Finally, and don’t laugh, but does anyone think Vroum Vroum Mag will get an entry? Connections have the more likely Ballycasey, but I don’t know, something tells me they might give the mare a speculative entry.

    #1231033
    Avatar photoBobby Bluebell
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    Great to see Double Seven & Seabass go head to head today in a Novice Hurdle at Punchestown today.

    Seabass ran another sound race, but as I’ve said before, I’m not sure a return to The National would be wise, but I’ll watch the situation with interest. Double Seven was very encouraging though, his first run since that day in The 2014 National, he was running on well at the end, & it was a promising performance, which makes the 50’s for this years race very tempting.

    Golden Wonder, who would have been my #1 hope last season, makes his comeback over timber at Fairyhouse tomorrow. Injured in last years Munster National, he was a big hope for Aintree, following his close second to Shutthefrontdoor in the 2014 Irish National. If sound, I reckon he’ll be a big player in this years race, and with it being the aim before his injury last year, he’s sure to be getting targetted for it this time around. Looks on a very fair chase mark as well.

    Double Seven & Golden Wonder both entered up at Punchestown on Sunday.

    Double Seven is set to run in a Pertemps qualifier, and I’d love to see him to take this route, before heading to Aintree, as he looks very very well treated over timber.

    Golden Wonder takes in The Grand National trial, and a nice wee run into a place would suit just fine. Not quite as impressive as Double Seven on his return over hurdles, but entitled to come on for that. The National trial is full of likely looking candidates for Aintree, including Golden Wonders stablemate Lyreen Legend. Never really thought of him as the obvious type for a marathon trip, but he could potentially sneak into the line up on a nice weight, so again, a nice respectable run round might be ideal for him. Not one I’d rush to bet, but I’ll keep him in mind anyway.

    As I said, loads of probable types entered up, and one who’s really impressed me this year is Riverside City, but he would have to win by half the track on Sunday to get in at Aintree, and he might just be one for next year.

    The Skybet Chase this weekend is also likely to feature a few potential National runners, and THM’s fine shout, Holywell, could get a run. The more I think of him, the more I think The National is a good shout, especially with that spring ground he loves, so he’s another who doesn’t necessarily want to win this weekend. The same could be said of Double Ross, who also holds an entry. Very much like the Punchestown race, The Skybet could throw up a few new contenders.

    My main fancies at the moment are The Young Master & Cause of Causes.

    The Young Master is entered up in The Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham, but he’ll be of more interest to me once the weights are framed. I’m hoping to see him take in Kemptons Betbright Chase next month, though no surprise to see him head for the 3 miler at The Festival.

    Cause of Causes looks ridiculously well treated at the moment, and though I always prefer a horse who hasn’t ran in the race before, he looks well set to improve on his finishing position last year. I’m hoping to see him take in The Kim Muir en-route.

    With the entries set to be revealed next week, the first dark horse who looks to be getting an entry is Onenightinvienna. I thought of him more as a Scottish National horse this year, but he’ll be an interesting runner here for sure.

    Midnight Prayer looks to be heading here off the back of his second place in The Classic Chase, and although I’ve threw a few quid at him on Betfair, he remains risky antepost with him being very fragile.

    Finally, and don’t laugh, but does anyone think Vroum Vroum Mag will get an entry? Connections have the more likely Ballycasey, but I don’t know, something tells me they might give the mare a speculative entry.

    I really like Golden Wonder too :good: I emailed the trainer after his last run and she confirmed Aintree was the target.

    #1231050
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    Good stuff Bobby, I knew it was the target last year, but that’s very encouraging to see it’s the plan again, thanks for the update

    #1231063
    Avatar photoBigG
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    • Total Posts 13286

    I was a big fan of SEABASS too Bobby, I was very upbeat on his chances, if you
    recall, prior to his run in 2012, where he ran a cracking 3rd and 2013 where he
    was a bit disappointing. It’s a pity he didn’t make it to the race the next two
    years, I really thought he could win a National. Like you, I’ll watch him on Sunday
    but I think his chance has probably gone now. If he does make it there I’ll probably
    have a bet for old times sake, but age is maybe against him now.

    I’m very keen on THE YOUNG MASTER, I bet him in the Hennessy and had a decent bet for
    The Welsh National, which unfortunately he failed to trap for (twice). I think it was
    probably in his run before that, in the Sodexo Silver Cup at Ascot, where he was running
    on really strongly at the finish, closing them down without ever going to get there,
    that they decided he is a National horse. I think that’s why the next 3 engagements,
    including the Welsh National were all fail to appear. His mark of around 150 would
    let him in on a decent weight, no doubt the Cleeve Hurdle was chosen to protect that
    mark before the weights come out.

    I even thought about taking some of the 66s for The Gold Cup at one point, I thought
    that much of him, but just as well I didn’t as that’s not happening.

    I’ve taken the 50s for him in the hope he gets there, if he does he won’t be half those
    odds.

    AS for the Cleeve tomorrow, I can’t see anything beating Thistlecrack, but I think that
    at 20/1 with Betvictor (and a few others) he isn’t without a shout of a place so I’m
    having some of that.

    A long way to go, so lets hope he keeps sound and gives us a run :good:

    #1231074
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15046

    Oh yeah Graham, remember the build up to that 2012 National well, I wrote this a few months back……

    Seabass. Another I’d highlighted early doors, and was betting him with firms long before he was added to any markets. Sadly, didn’t quite get home, and beaten fair and square. Had the consolation of laying him off in running, and also having bet Neptune Collonges, so not all bad, but if he had got home, even after laying off, I’d have won about £12,000. The best chaser in training that year, by some distance, and why they didn’t enter him in The Gold Cup that year, or at least supplement him, remains something of a mystery, baffling.

    He runs tomorrow now, in a handicap chase at Fairyhouse tomorrow, and I might just side with him. His comeback was dire, but I caught him when he won at 20’s in a Novice Hurdle last month, so he’s been one of the most profitable horses I’ve ever followed. I reckon he’s a cert to get an entry for Aintree, but like you, I harbour some doubts that they want to be putting him through that at his age, and after his setback.

    Yeah, thought you’d be keen on TYM as well. I bet him for The Gold Cup, and actually made a profit on him laying off, he was very volatile in the market the last few months. I started betting him for it way back last Jan/Feb, and was a wee bit surprised he didn’t get an entry. I’ve left a few quid on him in the (unlikely) event he gets supplemented, RWC can afford that haha. I think he’s perfect for Aintree, and he’s now down to 149, there’s no question they’re protecting him mark, and I can see him being a very short price on the day, and challenging for favouritism. Trainer got The Druids Nephew spot on for last year, and he surely would have won if he stood up, and he’ll have the best Aintree jockey in the business on board. Could see him, like The Druids Nephew, taking the 3 miler at The Festival en-route, however, if he were mine, I’d head to Kempton for the old Racing Post Chase.

    #1231090
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15046

    A welcome win for Night In Milan over hurdles today at Doncaster.

    I bet him in last years National, and he was given an awesome ride by James Reveley, but he just seemed to run out of petrol on the home turn. He was off 146 then, but will come here, should he get an entry, off of 139, a mark which should be enough to sneak into the line up. Certainly worth considering again, with the chance that a 7lb swing could make all the difference.

    #1231592
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6114

    Trainer has twigged that Buywise is a stayer. He’d need to pick up his feet, but these fences often scare debutants into doing just that. At 85 on Betfair, I’m happy to take the chance

    #1231596
    homersimpson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2904

    A welcome win for Night In Milan over hurdles today at Doncaster.

    I bet him in last years National, and he was given an awesome ride by James Reveley, but he just seemed to run out of petrol on the home turn. He was off 146 then, but will come here, should he get an entry, off of 139, a mark which should be enough to sneak into the line up. Certainly worth considering again, with the chance that a 7lb swing could make all the difference.

    Also backed him last year VTC. In fact i wasn’t the best pleased I’d missed him Friday. Didn’t think he was at his best in the run up to last year’s National so hopefully the win last week means he is going in the right direction. Here’s one who will definitely not leave him out if he does sneak in.

    #1231615
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15046

    I thought he enjoyed it last year Homer, and think the swing in the weights could seriously improve his chances.

    Joe, Buywise is one of those loveable rogues, but with those metal plates in his back, will it be suitable for him round here.

    Best of luck though mate.

    #1232078
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15046

    Really decent set of entries this year, with 126 entered in total.

    http://www.thecrabbiesgrandnational.co.uk/news/terrific-126-strong-entry-revealed-for-2016-crabbies-grand-national

    Very disappointed to see The Young Master not entered, but the writing was on the wall after his laboured performance on Saturday, where even allowing for it being over hurdles, he just didn’t look right. He’d drifted quite markedly the last few days as well, so although disappointing, not the biggest shock to me.

    The most pleasant surprise for me though, was Our Father getting an entry. Bet him for it last summer, but had written it off, as I assumed he was no longer in training. He’ll have to overcome being off for over a year, but now with Gordon Elliot, it gives me a wee bit of encouragement. Hopefully hear some posititve news regarding him in the coming weeks. If good to go, I’d really fancy him, and he’d be up there with Cause of Causes for me. Still not got a bean on Cause of Causes yet.

    Never a fan of siding with horses who’ve ran it before, a big negative for me, but hopefully a change of approach will bring me a winner.

    Of those who didn’t get an entry for me, despite being a big fancy, hadn’t actually put that much on The Young Master, so didn’t really hurt financially, just a bit gutted as thought he’d be a cert for it. Had a few others who didn’t get an entry, and the ones that did hurt were Minella Foru & Rossvoss, though knew my fate with Rossvoss after The Paddy Power.

    Got a whole load bet, easily 20+ (as usual, trying to get green book) but I’ll put them up on my DLAP thread, and put up on here, what I think are the more interesting ones, later on.

    #1232089
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6114

    Thanks, Bobby. I didn’t know about that issue with his back, just that he was a sketchy jumper. It would be interesting indeed if it does turn out he’s a stayer, given how well he’s run at shorter trips.

    As Williams said today, he’ll either jump or he won’t. If he does, I’d say he’ll go well given the luck all winners need there.

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