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On THE CASHEL MAN as well at 16/1 back him in races this year so not leave him out here
The Cashel Man for me too. Seems to be hitting form at the right time, has a good draw, and I’ve always rated Buick highly (watch him get boxed in and beat a head).
Small saver on Leah Freya at massive odds on Betfair
I’ve had to back that Gary Moore German horse at 100/1; big bet for me…10p ew (blimey)!
I had picked out two a good while back, and bet them both at 25/1. Silver Concorde disappeared at
the final declarations and my other one, SHREWD has had no luck with the draw, and
now trades at 40/1…..didn’t I do well
I like SHREWD, I feel there is a big race in him, but if I’m honest I’m having second thoughts
about this being it. The money is down, so that is that, but I’m going to have a further stab
at this. I’ve spent AGES going through the field, and I can find reasons for loads winning, and
also reasons for the same horses losing. Sweet Selection, Starchitect and St Michel are so well
in that it’s hard to imaging one of them not winning. Given their mark in any other race you
probably couldn’t look past them, but this is the Cesarewitch and it rarely goes to plan. So
I’ve decided to stick my hard earned on something that’s been there, done that and is drawn
on what appears to be the right side. Step Forward ORIENTAL FOX 16/1. He did
everything bar win last year, going down a shd. He hasn’t done much since, although he most
certainly looked like he was more in the mood 2 races back at Goodwood, beaten 1 1/2L by
St Michel giving him 24lbs. He’s 6lbs better off with that one and is 3lbs better off than his
race here last year. He did nothing in the Mallard Stakes last time out at Doncaster last month,
but I’m pretty sure this was the target and hopefully Mark Johnston will have him ready for this.
It’s hopelessly tough this year, and something completely overlooked is quite likely to hose up
at a huge price…..I hope you’re on it
Ces’s aren’t always as open as betting makes out. It’s a four horse race! Well, may be that’s an exageration, haven’t done a 100% book but suspect it’s around a 55 to 60% chance so a combined price of 5/4 about the first four in the betting is good value imo.
I’ve backed St Michel and Sweet Selection with savers on Starchitect and Sea Of Heaven.Value Is EverythingWell I am already on Mill Springs and Blue Rambler and gutted Jamie Osborne took Very Very out at the last minute
So had to back another and have backed Golden Spear at 25/1 but like Ginge I fear the front four in the betting could have loads in hand despite the draw!!And Moe I had to back that Moore thing at 100/1 too!!
Come on Frankie !!!
Ces’s aren’t always as open as betting makes out. It’s a four horse race! Well, may be that’s an exageration, haven’t done a 100% book but suspect it’s around a 55 to 60% chance so a combined price of 5/4 about the first four in the betting is good value imo.
I’ve backed St Michel and Sweet Selection with savers on Starchitect and Sea Of Heaven.I can’t disagree with you Ginger in picking out those that have every reason to win. I’m not sure I
agree with your point that ” Ces’s aren’t always as open as betting makes out”. The runnings from
2007 onwards went to horses priced 14/1, 50/1, 9/2, 16/1, 25/1, 66/1, 66/1 10/1 50/1. You might very
well have the tricast there, they are certainly good enough, but I think it’s quite open again this
year. Best of luckThe Moore horse falls into the ‘who the hell is that’ category which can never be overlooked.
I have barely done any research on this race so I’ve just had a small e/w bet on Star Rider at 22/1. The reason being that Jimmy Fortune won the Cambridgeshire this year. Adam Beschizza won both the Cambridge and then this race last year so I’m looking for a little trend that may appear.
On form she has a good chance as well, winning the 2m5f handicap at Glorious Goodwood two starts back and travelling strongly throughout, leading over 2f out. She was then thought good enough to take her chance in the group 2 park hill at Doncaster over 14f but was completely outclassed there. Shame about the draw but must have a squeak.
Ces’s aren’t always as open as betting makes out. It’s a four horse race! Well, may be that’s an exageration, haven’t done a 100% book but suspect it’s around a 55 to 60% chance so a combined price of 5/4 about the first four in the betting is good value imo.
I’ve backed St Michel and Sweet Selection with savers on Starchitect and Sea Of Heaven.I can’t disagree with you Ginger in picking out those that have every reason to win. I’m not sure I
agree with your point that ” Ces’s aren’t always as open as betting makes out”. The runnings from
2007 onwards went to horses priced 14/1, 50/1, 9/2, 16/1, 25/1, 66/1, 66/1 10/1 50/1. You might very
well have the tricast there, they are certainly good enough, but I think it’s quite open again this
year. Best of luckThe Ces is usually an open race BigG, however they “aren’t always as open”. Look at that “9/2” in 2009.
Darley Sun was according to the handicapper 12 lbs well-in after finishing runner-up in the Doncaster Cup and won the Ces easily by 5 lengths.
St Michel is 13 lbs well-in after 2 1/4 lengths third in Doncaster Cup, Sweet Selection 5th in the same race is even better off with St Michel and 15 lbs well-in after Donny.
Can another horse improve a stone or more if one of those two run to form? Even if something is laid out for the race, seems unlikely.
Look a bit further back in the records and you’ll see a good hurdler in Detroit City @ 9/2, who reminds me of Starchitect.There’s also none of the soft ground this year that can change the form around.
Pace in the race is the one thing that could hinder them.
Value Is EverythingCes’s aren’t always as open as betting makes out. It’s a four horse race! Well, may be that’s an exageration, haven’t done a 100% book but suspect it’s around a 55 to 60% chance so a combined price of 5/4 about the first four in the betting is good value imo.
I’ve backed St Michel and Sweet Selection with savers on Starchitect and Sea Of Heaven.I can’t disagree with you Ginger in picking out those that have every reason to win. I’m not sure I
agree with your point that ” Ces’s aren’t always as open as betting makes out”. The runnings from
2007 onwards went to horses priced 14/1, 50/1, 9/2, 16/1, 25/1, 66/1, 66/1 10/1 50/1. You might very
well have the tricast there, they are certainly good enough, but I think it’s quite open again this
year. Best of luckThe Ces is usually an open race BigG, however they “aren’t always as open”. Look at that “9/2″ in 2009.
Darley Sun was according to the handicapper 12 lbs well-in after finishing runner-up in the Doncaster Cup and won the Ces easily by 5 lengths.
St Michel is 13 lbs well-in after 2 1/4 lengths third in Doncaster Cup, Sweet Selection 5th in the same race is even better off with St Michel and 15 lbs well-in after Donny.
Can another horse improve a stone or more if one of those two run to form? Even if something is laid out for the race, seems unlikely.
Look a bit further back in the records and you’ll see a good hurdler in Detroit City @ 9/2, who reminds me of Starchitect.There’s also none of the soft ground this year that can change the form around.
Pace in the race is the one thing that could hinder them.
That’s fair enough Ginger, I understand your point that it’s occasionally not as
open as it may seem. If all goes well and there are no hard luck stories then your
logic is, as usual, spot on. I think the point I was making was that because of the
nature of the race, it fairly regularly throws up big priced winners. Lets hope for
no hard luck stories, but I’d imagine that there will be a few.Lets hope for no hard luck stories, but I’d imagine that there will be a few.
That’s why I back four.
Fingers and everything else crossed.Value Is Everything
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