Caspian Caviar Gold Cup 2016

Had another look at this race, and still can’t see it being that strong.

I’m really keen on Village Vic at the 16’s, and fairly confident he can make the 4, so topped up on him, and topped up on Cold March at the 33’s.

I’ll hold off having another look until after the next forfeit stage, but the likes of Aso, Bouvreuil, and Tenor Nivernais do catch the eye.

19 stand their ground for this, and one of mine, Cold March, has fell by the wayside. Happily though Village Vic is still in there, and I just can’t see by him. Taquin De Seuil, who obviously got the better of Vic last time, is still in there, and his chances are obvious. Not hammered for that win, and if Jonjo can “convince” him to be in the same mood, he could easily do the double. He’s a horse I know well, and he’s big worry here for me.

I’ve replaced Cold March with another Venetia inmate, who I mentioned earlier, in Tenor Nivernais. I had him in this last year, along with Village Vic, and though Tenor is weighted to come out on top, I still think it’ll be place only, and took the 20’s each way. Stablemate Aso was the other one to catch the eye in the build up to this, he certainly ran a great race in The BetVictor, but I’d maybe like to see a bit of rain for him.

The other one who made that early shortlist was Bouvreuil, and I’m in no rush to change my mind. Like Aso, he ran a sound race in that BetVictor, and you can still get 12’s. He looks JP’s number one hope here, though worth noting that Full Shift, who was a shade disappointing last time at Newbury, will come in here on a featherweight. I’ll pay attention to jockey booking for him.

Bouvreuil’s stablemate Frodon is still in there, though he has to atone for his disappointing run here last month, though he’s still learning, and Nicholls has landed this with a youngster in the past, and no surprise if he bounced back. Could very well be that handicapper has caught up with him, but he was very impressive for his 2 wins this season, and I’d be willing to forgive. Art Mauresque could also represent Nicholls, and though he could only manage 7th in The BetVictor, he was a nice winner at Chepstow before that, and not sure he deserves to be a 20-1 shot, that’s pretty generous looking.

Former Nicholls inmate, and Grand Annual winner, Solar Impulse is at 66’s. You can only assume he’s got issues though, having been sold by Graham Wylie, and moved to the Christopher Kellett yard after a couple of disappointments after Cheltenham. He certainly showed nothing behind Sire De Grugy last time. Turban is another who used to lodge in more illustrious yards, being a former Mullins inmate. He was never a stable star though, and didn’t achieve that much with WPM. Hard to recommend on overall form, though Paul Henderson had a shock winner here last month with another cast off from Mullins, in the shape of Un Beau Roman. He’s hard to recommend though on recent form, and even with the chance that Henderson might work his magic, the 66’s looks about right.

Aloomomo heads the market, and he’s a nice enough horse, with a few things in his favour, not least that this would seem to have always been the plan for him. I’d just question whether or not he deserves to be favourite though on what he’s achieved so far. The same sentiments could apply to Thomas Brown. He’s a nice enough horse, and appears in good form, having won last time out, but I’m not sure he needs to be as low as 10’s at this stage. I’ve not been convinced that he likes big competitive fields, but I suppose if the race did cut up, as it could easily do, then this would enhance his chances.

Buywise will obviously appeal to a few on here, but trainer has stated that his next run may be over hurdles, and stable also has Kings Odyssey, a horse who didn’t grab me at first, but on second viewing, is one I’d consider. Maybe has work to do to actually land it, but interesting that he may be stables #1, and same connections mapped out this prize for Barrakilla, 2 seasons back, and that went close to paying off. He looks big at 14’s.

Also big at 14’s, is Kylemore Lough. His unbeaten run came to an end at Ascot last month, but didn’t do too much wrong that day, and coming off the back of a big season, he could very easily bounce back.

I’m a big fan of Quite By Chance, and he did me a huge favour at Ascot in October. He only found the well handicapped Sire De Grugy too good for him on his return to that track, and after the weekend, that form doesn’t look too shabby now. I think he’s well handicapped horse himself, and hailing from the Tizzard yard, the 20’s is more than generous, and as I write this, I’ve just had some of it. Stablemate Sizing Codelco has a terrible seasonal debut to overcome, and he’s hard to recommend on what we seen here in that race last month, for all he’s got plenty of previous form that would give him a squeak.

Module returned from a long layoff here last month, and no shame really in getting well beaten by Fox Norton. He was entitled to need that run obviously. He’s kept the best of company over the years, and he’s been given a chance by the handicapper, but even hailing from a yard who’s had a good start to the season, I just think he’s a bit risky, till we see whether he fully retains his ability. If he has, he’s chucked in.

Roman Flight hasn’t been unduly punished for his win last time, though this would be a massive step up for him, but at least we know he’s on the right track. I’d give him a sporting chance at the 33’s.

Still mad keen on Village Vic then, and happy with the 16’s I got. I’ll actually be disappointed if he’s not in the 2. Very happy to have 20’s on my backups, Tenor Nivernais & Quite By Chance, though any bet in this is risky, as I’d fully expect a few more of them to come out this week.

GL

Cheers Joe strangely confident about him, and getting keener by the minute on Quite By Chance as well.

I’ve not seen too much to concern me (at the moment) to worry about him going the other way stilvi, and I just thought on his October run that a step up wouldn’t phase him. I planned to have only 1 backup to Village Vic, but when the 20’s held, I just thought it was a shade big. To be honest, I’ll only be watching VV on Satuday, and I’ll only have the others as minor consolations.

Aloomomo may miss this, if there is no rain, and be held back for Ascot next weekend.