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Formerly “The Paddy Power”, it’s only a month away, and after the first busy weekend of the National Hunt Season, not surprising to see a few candidates emerging.
At Chepstow today, a case could be made for the first 3 home in the 1600, namely Art Mauresque, Double Shuffle, and Voix D’Eau. Of those 3, I’d maybe just favour Voix D’Eau just now.
Double Ross, who won the 1700, could easily go for it again. He was my big hope in it last year, and even allowing for the rise he’ll get for this win, he should still be competitive. I had him in mind for The Becher in December, but I’ll give him serious consideration for this, should he get an entry. With the NTD yard in blistering form, Bristol De Mai looks a worthy favourite, and if he continues his progression, no surprise to see him justify his place at the head of the market. The run from Splash of Ginge didn’t go unnoticed today, and he might just have a bit of his old spark back.
Definitely heading for it is impressive Fontwell winner, Frodon, trained by Paul Nicholls. I thought the fences at Fontwell looked huge that day, and he was very impressive over them. Great performance from a young horse.
Another horse who’s got a run under his belt today was the Rebecca Curtis trained Irish Cavalier. She’s been in decent form, and the way he cantered into contention in this last year hasn’t been forgotten. If she can get him ready, then he could be a big danger. It’s his stablemate though, Vintage Vinnie, who’s an early fancy of mine. A win over hurdles, followed by a gutsy display when winning over fences at Market Rasen, put him into my notebook for this. He then ran at Newton Abbot on Friday, with the conditions of the race totally against him, and put in a fine show against the excellent winner Virgilo. I put him up as a Novice Chaser to keep an eye on last year, but he didn’t back it up at all. Looks a different proposition this time around though, and I’d love to see him go here.
Ballyalton was an impressive winner at The Festival, and at this trip, he’s worth a second look, and a big price at 25’s, for a horse who’ll surely head here.
Buywise is a very likeable horse, and I can’t confidently write him off. If I was a betting man, I’d have a score on BigG backing him.
A dark horse of mine for this race last year was Generous Ransom, and interesting that he’s made the switch to Philip Hobbs, having previously been with Nick Gifford. Hopefully the switch can make the difference, and if not for here, then big handicap at the December meeting might be ideal. Hobbs winner of that race last year, Village Vic, could emerge as a contender for this, but he might just need a hand from the handicapper, after last seasons exploits.
Taquin De Seuil from the Jonjo yard had a pleasing comeback yesterday over hurdles, though off 156, this might just be a big ask, though in no rush to write him off either. His stablemate, Johns Spirit is always popular for these types of races, having won it in 2013. He looks a shadow of his former self, and his last run at Bangor was pretty poor, and he’s now went down 27 lbs in an year and a half. Looking at some of his runs though before that, he hasn’t been that bad, and should he get an entry, there’s no way I’m missing that 33’s, in the off chance they can get him back for one last hurrah.
There’s the obvious problem of runner from The Mullins yard to contend with, and the likes of Black Hercules, and Killultagh Vic could easily head here, and easily win it, but even at this relatively short period from the race, I won’t try to second guess him.
No bet for me at the moment, but keen on Vintage Vinnie at the 25’s, and Generous Ransom, who’s not been priced up yet. I’ve added him to the market on Betfair, so hopefully I can get a few quid on at a price. They’d be my main early fancies at the moment.
Early doors of course, and there’s 3 or 4 others mentioned above, who I think could run very well, so won’t be parting with any serious cash just now.
Can’t see him winning a champion hurdle, but kept good company chasing even though his jumping is iffy. If I knew he was being aimed at this, would be tempted by the 18/1 Skybet are offering….
Vaniteux and Garde La Victoire, the 1-2 coincidentally in the Greatwood last season, would take my interest at this early stage, but will review again once weights are confirmed. Vaniteux promised a lot of hurdles but didn’t really deliver over fences ultimately, he is only 7 so maybe after a good summer break he may begin to realise his outstanding potential – his Doncaster win was very good. If he gets the extra distance and can go in a bigger field he could be a danger.
i bet GLV at Ffos Las over the weekend and he looked in excellent nick in atrocious conditions. He was still going well in the JLT when coming down a few fences out – with that run in the Welsh Champion Hurdle under his belt, going back over fences he could also be a real threat.
Mullins on K Vic
A 149-rated hurdler, he made a very good impressive in winning both his starts over fences last season, with his miraculous recovery from a calamitous error at the final fence in a Grade 2 contest at Leopardstown being one of the most memorable moments of last season. He picked up an injury soon after that which ruled him out of the rest of the season.
“We’ve decided to give him more time to recover from the injury he picked up last season and he won’t be back on the track until the second half of the season. He looks like a stayer to me and three miles should suit him well.”First AP bet of the NH season is on Buywise E/W @ 25’s for this. Needs things to go right for him, but judging by his run this afternoon over hurdles retains plenty of speed.
Expect him to be flying up that hill again
Entries out now, and have went for Vintage Vinnie at 50’s to 75’s, and I’ve had an each way on Saphir Du Rheu at 25’s with Betfair Sportsbook. I don’t think SDR will acutally head here, but happy to take a chance having saved money by not betting before the entries came out…………and saved a few quid by not betting Generous Ransom.
Plenty of cash about for Taquin De Seuil, and though a big ask off that weight, he is one I’ve followed over the years, and if on song, could see him put in a decent round, as he’s certainly good enough.
I still think Splash of Ginge is a dark horse, and As De Mee could be dangerous as well at 20’s, while Triolo D’Alene, Top Gamble, and Henri Parry Morgan, all look big at 25’s.
With doubts around SDR, I’ll definitely be having another play, but in no rush, and happy to stick with Vinnie as my main hope for the timebeing.
Plenty to chew over, so here’s the entries……..
I have backed Bouvreuil at 25/1ew I hope he turns up!
I think he could be very a progressive type and Nicholls has also won this race with a 5 year old in 2015.
He beat double shuffle comfortably at the festival and is only a 1p higher in weights yet double is half the price!
JP Mc has snapped him up.
Happy Punting
Venture, two that you picked out make most appeal to me looking at the entries, Soladh of Ginge and Triolo D’Alene. Best run for a while from Splash of Ginge the last time and I have bet him at 33-1. I hope the rain stays away for Triolo D’Alene. He has dropped a few pounds and this will be different from a soft ground national or facing Silviniaco Conti at levels on soft at Ascot and I have also bet him at 25-1
First AP bet of the NH season is on Buywise E/W @ 25’s for this. Needs things to go right for him, but judging by his run this afternoon over hurdles retains plenty of speed.
Expect him to be flying up that hill again
Good luck with him Botchy. As Bobby alluded to, I’ve kind of followed him over a cliff
the last year or so. I’ve always felt he had a big one in him, and there’s no way I would
try and put you off him, but he is bloody frustrating
. I’m sure he’s going to get
it just right one of these days, and run away from a good field with his customary late effort,
it’s just working out when he’s going to do it.I haven’t joined you with him yet, I told myself that enough was enough last year, but I can feel
my resolve to give him a miss this year wilting as I write
Splash of Ginge is a moody customer but he is too well handicapped to ignore. I do feel he is a National type in the near future, but if he puts it all in he could easily be a threat, and could relish this sort of trip.
First AP bet of the NH season is on Buywise E/W @ 25’s for this. Needs things to go right for him, but judging by his run this afternoon over hurdles retains plenty of speed.
Expect him to be flying up that hill again
Good luck with him Botchy. As Bobby alluded to, I’ve kind of followed him over a cliff
the last year or so. I’ve always felt he had a big one in him, and there’s no way I would
try and put you off him, but he is bloody frustrating . I’m sure he’s going to get
it just right one of these days, and run away from a good field with his customary late effort,
it’s just working out when he’s going to do it.I haven’t joined you with him yet, I told myself that enough was enough last year, but I can feel
my resolve to give him a miss this year wilting as I write I thought last year’s Paddy Power cured me when he went down by a neck but have backed him again this year, each-way at 25/1. Once more into the fray.
First AP bet of the NH season is on Buywise E/W @ 25’s for this. Needs things to go right for him, but judging by his run this afternoon over hurdles retains plenty of speed.
Expect him to be flying up that hill again
Good luck with him Botchy. As Bobby alluded to, I’ve kind of followed him over a cliff
the last year or so. I’ve always felt he had a big one in him, and there’s no way I would
try and put you off him, but he is bloody frustrating . I’m sure he’s going to get
it just right one of these days, and run away from a good field with his customary late effort,
it’s just working out when he’s going to do it.I haven’t joined you with him yet, I told myself that enough was enough last year, but I can feel
my resolve to give him a miss this year wilting as I write I thought last year’s Paddy Power cured me when he went down by a neck but have backed him again this year, each-way at 25/1. Once more into the fray.
I remember that only too well Tommy, it was a hard one to take. Okay, what the hell,
count me in too……here we go again Lets hope it’s third time lucky botchy
I should have mentioned that a horse I fancy to do well this year, I’ve already
bet him in this and he is in my Ten To Follow, is GARDE LA VICTOIRE.
I think he could do well here, and although he blotted his copybook falling at
Cheltenham in the JLT this year, where he went off jt fav, and again the following
month at Aintree, he has managed to stay on his feet in the other 17 runs. He has
some seriously good form, taking the scalp of Bristol De Mai last year, giving him
9lbs and an easy 7 lengths victory. He’s a 3 time winner at Cheltenham, including
over C/D and looks up to taking this, unless he gets mugged by Buywise in the last
2 yards. You never know, that could be a decent forecast. Coral still have him at
14/1 and that looks value to me.The three I am interested in currently are HENRI PARRY MORGAN who improved sooooo much last year and would have gone close at Sandown but for unseating. 25/1
INDIAN STREAM which blew up at Chepstow on his comeback run and looks well weighted for this and was a very easy course and distance winner in April. 50/1
DOUBLE SHUFFLE which ran well at Chepstow having been outpaced and stayed on really well and also ran really well at the Festival without winning and the trainers horses are currently running pretty good. 14/1
Good Luck folks
I’ve been watching the market for this race for the past month now and its been based around the class horses,’Garde la Victoire’, 14’s ‘Taquin du Seuill, 16’s and ‘Bristol de Mai’ 12’s.I had narrowed it down to those 3,I cant understand why this ‘Pipe import’ ‘Kings socks’ is the 10/1 fav as he has achieved nothing yet.
Money talks in this game and it speaks louder when its coming for a JP horse particularly when that horse is going to run tomorrow at Carlisle against 2 very capable opponents,one of whom is one of the above.More of that is the mover in this market,cut to 8/1 across the board but 12’s still available on the machine.I already have him down as a Ryanair horse,his form proves the shorter trip looks better than the Gold Cup route and this handicap is his for the taking if he returns back to his best….Time to take the 12’s again now methinks.
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