BetBright Chase 2016

One of my favourite races of the season, and probably the race which I’ve had most success in, having had my fair share of luck in it over the years. Nothing like setting yourself up for a fall.

My long term fancies for this were Champagne West & Ziga Boy, and not surprisingly they find themselves at the head of the market, and they’re actually even shorter than I envisaged they’d be at this stage.

Ziga Boy did me a turn in The Skybet Chase last month, and bar a scare at the end, when Buywise looked as if he might mount a challenge, he looked the winner from a very long way out. He’s clearly going the right way, and despite the obvious rise for that Doncaster success, his mark of 141 leaves him on a very nice weight for this.

Champagne West, my #1 fancy, and as low as 4’s with Paddy Power, is arguably the best horse in the race, but having had a fair spell on the sidelines, there’s a chance he’s got a few pounds ahead of the handicapper. His return from injury in The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December was very good indeed, only finding his stablemate, Village Vic too good. I rate Village Vic very highly, and thought that was a great effort. His next run at Cheltenham didn’t go to plan though, and despite travelling very well, he clouted one down the back, putting paid to his chances. Although he’s had his jumping issues in the past, I’d put that particular blunder down to jockey error, and think he’s well worth a second chance. He’s quietly fancied by many for The Ryanair, but I very much believe he’s equally at home over 3 miles+. I’ve bet him up to 1000’s for The Gold Cup, so desperate to see a big run from him on Saturday, so that connections at least consider him for that race, even though my head tells me he’ll head for The Ryanair. His trainer has a decent record in the race, and I’m pleased to see this is his only entry.

Behind Champagne West at Cheltenham in December was Tenor Nivernais. I had a decent bet on him ante-post for that race a price, and he didn’t let me down, and I was more than happy with the each way return. He remains a very likeable horse, and is in the form of his life. As well as his third in The Caspian Caviar, he returned twice to Cheltenham, finishing runner up to Village Vic & Annacotty, and it’s very hard to crab those runs. My only concern with him is his patchy record over this trip, and he could only manage 6th in this last season, off a much lower mark. His stablemate Shangani also gets an entry, but it would have to be a Venetia “Special” for him to win, as he’s not been in the best of form, and just looks as if he’s short of whats required here. He also had a very hard race at Exeter last week, and that’s bound to have left it’s mark.

At this stage last year, I had 2 main fancies, with one of them being Rocky Creek, at a very generous 20-1. I held fire with him though, as Paul Nicholls was very cool on the chances of him actually lining up, stating he was the least likely of his 3 at that stage. He of course went on to romp it, and despite a few quid on him, it certainly wasn’t at 20’s. I may have called Nicholls a few names that day. He was clearly well treated that day off of 154, and (on paper) doesn’t look too bad here off of 158 either. That doesn’t tell the full story though, and he remains, putting it politely, enigmatic. He was too bad to be true in his last 2 runs at Newbury & Aintree, and that alone is enough for me to be less enthusiastic about him this time around. Not beyond him if in the mood, and if over his recent run at Newbury, but I’ll have to leave alone here. His respectable effort behind Don Cossack at the start of the season is niggling me, but still not enough to sway me. Nicholls is also represented by Virak, and Ruben Cotter. Virak is a horse I’ve a lot of time for, though he does find himself at the top of the weights with Rocky Creek. He rarely runs a bad one, but there’s just the thought that he’s a bit harshly treated on what he’s actually achieved. He’s twice finished runner up this season, to the improving Wakanda, but that horses capitulation at Cheltenham last time has done little to frank the form. Virak has also finished runner up to another Sue Smith horse at Haydock, in the very well handicapped Cloudy Too in The Peter Marsh, and that day I just thought as if he looked in need of a bit of respite from the handicapper. He’s certainly a decent animal, considered good enough for a Gold Cup entry, but he remains very hard to place, and though I’ll swerve him on Saturday, a good run wouldn’t be a total shock either. Completing the trio is Ruben Cotter, who I’m very interested in. He’s always looked a horse of some promise, and ran a cracker when last seen in The Topham at Aintree last April. That was off the back of a win here in March, and he’s been on my radar for this ever since. He’s clearly had his issues, as he’s currently coming off the back of his second spell on the sidelines, but I’m sure Nicholls wouldn’t be sending him here if not 100%, and at a price, he’s very interesting, for both this, and The Topham. The 20’s looks very fair to me.

Chasing home Rocky Creek last year was Le Reve. He ran no sort of race at Doncaster, and seemed to hate it, to my eyes anyway. He bounced back last time though at Sandown, beating the very well handicapped, and subsequent winner, Unioniste. He’s generally around 5’s, and that sums up his chance here. He will be racing off a mark that has stretched him in the past, but I reckon he’s a couple of pounds better off going right handed, he ran a screamer in The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April, and it’s pretty difficult to pick too many holes in him for this.

I thought The Druids Nephew was superb when he won at The Festival last year, and although still a fair way out, I’m pretty sure he’d have won The National, had he not slipped up. That was enough for me to throw a few quid at him for The Gold Cup, but sis seasons clearly been geared around a repeat bid for Aintree. Even allowing for that, I thought he still looked a little too laboured for me, in his comeback over hurdles at Wetherby, & his spin round Cheltenham in December, where he finished down the field to Aachen. Clearly a force to be reconed with in The National again, and I wouldn’t rule out another big run in the 3 miler at Cheltenham either, but as far as this prize is concerned, I’ll take the chance that those bigger targets in the spring are priority for him.

Harry Fry comes here double handed, with previous winner Opening Batsman, and the promising Thomas Brown. I get the impression that this is a race Fry would very much target, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this has been the target for Opening Batsman all season long. He’s got a lot of questions to answer, not least off the back of his dismal run here in January. Never in contention that day, but for a horse who’s so hard to predict, I can’t bring myself to write him off either, as bad as that last run was. He’ll run here off the same mark, as when victorious in 2013, and I can see him potentially lobbing along nicely, before finding a few too good on the run for home. Thomas Brown had a bloodless victory at Doncaster last time, with a main market rival falling, and having the race handed to him, when Vintage Vinnie hit one close to home. That was his third start over fences, and he’s taken the transition from hurdles very well this season, looking a horse full of potential. He could be a player in one of The Novice Chases at The Festival, if forgiving him his poor run there last season in The Albert Bartlett, and I find it very hard to leave him out of the equation here, especially off 140.

Well ahead of Opening Batsman that day at Kempton, was Roc D’Apsis. Having looked under pressure 2 out, he fairly dug it out, and when pressed at the end, he found plenty. I thought at the time, it was a fair trial for this. Trainer has won this twice before, with his popular grey, Nacarat, and off that run in January, I could see this grey just surprising a few. Very interesting at 20’s.

Hadrians Approach has been seen sparingly since the highlight of his career, The 2014 Bet365 Gold Cup. He’s only ran twice since then, running poorly on both occasions. He’s been off the track for over a year, so hard to enthuse about him for this. His jumping’s never been the best, though he has been given a National entry, which suggests he might be over his ailments, but despite being given a break by the handicapper, given his trainers recent record with chasers, I’d have to leave him alone for this particular prize.

I was keeping an eye on Fox Appeal at the start of the season, but he’s pretty much failed to deliver. Having ran promising races in defeat at Cheltenham & Ascot, his last run, back at Ascot was very disappointing, and I just feel he could be doing with coming down a few pounds. Difficult to judge how he’d have fared in this last year, as he unseated early on. The type of horse to leave you with egg on your face, but I’ll leave him till he comes down a couple of pounds.

Another horse coming off the back of a poor run is Viva Steve. He had a few quid of mine on him at Cheltenham that day, but he ran no sort of race, and was beaten a fair way out. I’d be inclined though to put that down to conditions that day, he really seemed to hate it, and I’m more than happy to give him another chance, especially of the back to his second here, behind leading Grand National fancy, The Last Samuri. I reckon that run puts him bang in contention for this.

Theatre Guide is a horse who looks exceptionally well handicapped, certainly off the back of his second behind Smad Place in The Hennessy, and although beaten a lot further next time behind the grey at Cheltenham, he did have some decent horses behind him. Connections went close with Mount Oscar in this a few seasons back, and I reckon he’s got to come into the reckoning, and he still looks big at 14’s. I took bigger though, and he’s the one I’m building this “mini book” around.

The field is completed by the Nigel Twiston-Davies pair, Ballykan & Astracad. Ballykan looked at star of the future when running up a 3 timer at the start of the season, but the wheels have rather come off lately. He was taken care of, in a weak enough affair at Cheltenham, before pulling up in The Rehearsal Chase. He should have his day in time, but I think he’s one for the future, and it’s watching brief for the meantime. Astracad is an old favourite of mine, and he won me a few quid at Chepstow in October, though I’ve bet him “once or twice” over the years, and he disappoints more often that not. This trip is a step into the unknown, and I’m inclined to think it’ll stretch him, though think he’ll be up there for a while, and I’d love to see him run a big race, though I can’t see him there at the business end. He’ll no doubt have a sentimental quid or two of mine on him though.

With it being a good race for me, I wanted to side with Champagne West & Ziga Boy from an early stage, and though I’ve no issues with taking market leaders, I didn’t want to side solely with both of them, and took a risk and built a “mini book”. Hasn’t been easy with limited liquidity, but I’ve had a go. Kruzhlinin was also vying for favouritism, but I was never as keen on him for this, and he’ll be more of a player later in the season. I was happy to dodge him. At the moment, got these running for me.

As hard a race to call as I can remember, and happy to take this approach. Returns will be lower, but happy to make a profit overall, and fairly confident the way the market is forming, that I can pull it off. This time last week, the entry was chock full of likely sorts, with 41 standing their gorund, hence taking this approach, and I’ve managed to get away with it so far. Ziga and Champagne were the bigger fancies, but Theatre Guide is the big winner (if I can pull this off). I’m convinced I can make some decent profit from Ziga and Champagne this way.

Ideally, I’d like to see Champagne West win it out the park, booking his place for The Gold Cup, but it’s such a tough race to call, I didn’t want to put all my eggs in the one basket with him.

Champagne West 10’s to 13.5’s
Ziga Boy 14’s to 18’s
Ruben Cotter 24’s to 26’s
Opening Batsman 27’s to 28’s
Viva Steve 26’s to 36’s
Theatre Guide 19’s to 28’s
Roc D’Apsis 34’s to 40’s