Paddy Power Chase 2015

One of my favourite races of the year, and sometimes gets a bit overlooked over The Festive Period, with the likes of The King George, The Welsh National, and The Lexus to get stuck into.

I do like to get stuck into it though, with somewhat disappointing results. Have had a good few places at decent prices, but only managed to get the winner once, and that was World Wide Web, over 10 years ago. That, of course, was after parting with a good few quid on him for Chepstow, seriously cutting into my profits. I did have Cause of Causes 2 years ago, and had he got his nostrils in front, I’d have been looking at a 4 figure lift. So looking to step up from place money this year, and go one better.

Doesn’t really tend to be a reliable trial for Aintree, with Majestic Concorde & Colbert Station being the only winners to head there, and it’s usually more of a guide for The Irish equivalent. It’s always got a top notch line up, and this years looks no different. I could literally make a case for more than half of them, so I’ll look at a “select few”.

I had a good time of it last weekend with Rossvoss, winning over hurdles at 14’s for me, and though a world away from what he’ll be up against here, it was just the sheer manner of his victory that impressed. He won in a stroll, and wasn’t for stopping at the end either. This was off the back of a tidy win at Punchestown in November, so he’s obviously in good nick this year, and he’ll be running of a nice racing weight, regardless of future defections this week. Trained by Ted Walsh, I’m hoping he’ll be reunited with his daughter Katie, who won on him last week, and they teamed up yesterday to win with Seabass, so trainer and jockey form, will also be of no concern. He’s become a very strong fancy, and I don’t normally go too overboard on my selections, but my biggest bet of the season so far, and he’s a strong fancy. Nothing like setting yourself up for a fall, just need him to make it here now, and hoping to get a good run for my money.

Despite this though, it’s the type of race where I’ll be more than happy to look for backup, and there’s no shortage of choices. Definitely a race which is targetted by JP, and as usual, he’s got a few in there, with just the 11 entered. Five of them, Heathfield, Minella Foru, Gallant Oscar, Gilgamboa, and Cause of Causes are just off favouritism, and it’s not difficult to see why. Gallant Oscar & Heathfield were both purchased by JP at the tail end of last season, and although I see them both as potential Grand National candidates, there’s just no getting away from their chances here. After buying the pair of them, they both bolted up at The Punchestown Festival, in very competitive handicaps, and this was off the back of very encouraging seasons. As well as not disgracing himself behind Djakadam in The Thyestes, Gallant Oscar chased home The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham, finishing like a train, and he narrowly missed out on the cut for Aintree. Was worth noting that they swerved The Irish National, in the off chance that they made the cut for Aintree, so connections clearly knew they had a live chance on their hands, and although it didn’t quite come off for them, he proved his wellbeing at Punchestown. Trained by Tony Martin, who landed the race last season, the only slight niggle with him, is that he’s come up a fair bit in the weights, but from what we seen of him last season, I think he’ll be good enough to handle it. Heathfield is also trained by Tony Martin, and I’d slightly favour him of the two. He had a very consistent Novice Season, topped of with that win at Punchestown, and unlike his stablemate, he’s had a pipe opener, running in a Novice Hurdle a couple of weeks back, and he’s also a lot lower in the weights. He looks nailed on for a big run, and I’m struggling to see him not placing.

As mentioned earlier, Cause of Causes almost landed this for me 2 years ago, he’s a real favourite of mine, and he’s a horse I always bet. As well as his second in this, he also filled the runners up spot in The Kim Muir that season, before flopping in The Irish National. After a slow start to last season, he properly saved my bacon at Cheltenham, landing the 4 miler, in a manner more convincing than the winning distance. He then ran well enough in The National, but was given just too much to do in my opinion, though in hindsight (certainly not my view at the time) it would have been some effort to peg back Many Clouds. I’ll probably stick a pound on him out of loyalty again, but I’m not as keen on him for this, this time around. I just get the feeling that targets in the spring will be his main priority, despite the fact that he still looks ahead of the handicapper, and no surprise to see me kicking myself at the end of this should he land it. Gilgamboa is a potential class act, and though the trip would be a step into the unknown here, the way he was finishing behind Djakadam last time, certainly suggested that it wouldn’t be a problem. He was a real eyecatcher that day, and probably enough to justify him being top weight here. He’s considered good enough to get an entry in The Lexus, and I think they’ve got to take there chance in that, just to see exactly what they’ve got on their hands. Of the main JP contenders though, I eventually went for Minella Foru. He looked tenderly handled last season, running behind the likes of Un De Sceaux & Vautour, but last time out, over a trip much shorter than this he showed an awful lot more. He’s been kept near the minimum trip for most of his races, though has won over 3 miles in a Point to Point, and with the trainer very keen to send him here, I took a few quid each way at the 20’s this morning.

Of the remaining JP runners, well Riverside City is coming off the back of a win in The Troytown, and despite that run putting him in the frame for this, I’m just a bit wary that it was a very weak renewal of that race. I’ve had some good days off of Jacksonslady, but there’s always the suspicion that she prefers a smaller field than she’ll face here, as likeable as she is. Cantlow is a difficult one to weigh up. Over two years since he got his head in front, with a few stinkers in that time, which certainly wouldn’t advertise his claims for this. He does though, have a couple of runs which put him in contention for this. I don’t think he did too much wrong behind Pendra at Ascot last time, and he ran well enough in this years Irish National, and he’s surely going to take advantage of his slipping mark, sooner rather than later. It’s not forgotten that he was AP’s choice of the McManus runners at Fairyhouse, so safe to say he’s got to have something to offer. Of the other 3, Hash Brown, Carriganog & Auvergnat look up against it on all known form, though Hash Brown looked a horse of promise last year, and Auvergnat must be showing something to Jonjo to remain in the 5 decs for this.

Gigginstown runners are easier to chew over, with “only” 6 entered at this stage. First Lieutenant is the highest rated of theirs, and after sliding down the weights, he ran his best race for a while in The Hennessy, running a screamer to finish third behind Smad Place. A repeat of that would put him bang there, but there’s always the suspicion with him that he’ll be vulnerable to a younger rival, though no getting away from the fact that he looks fairly well treated. I’d expect the novices Lord Scoundrel & Captain Von Trappe to take up one of their other numerous entries over the The Festive Period, while the more than capable Folsom Blue is risky at this stage, with the real possibilty he could head to Chepstow. I thought Horendus Hulabaloo would be a Giggs horse to follow in these staying chases, but after a fall in The Kerry National, he was beaten out of sight behind Lord Scoundrel, albeit over a shorter trip than this. I’ll probably give him another chance, but not in this. I think Empire of Dirt looks the most appealing of theirs. He’s certainly had his jumping issues, but he showed a lot more last time, behind the very promising Sumos Novios at Punchestown, and I reckon he’s way better than his current mark. The 20’s available looks fair.

Sumos Novios would be a fascinating contender for this, off the back of that win, but faces a major struggle to get in, and looks one to keep a note of for future targets should he miss out here.. Books are taking no chances though, and is as low as 10’s, and heads the market with Stan James. Clearly going the right way, and on a 3-timer, a danger to all should he sneak in. His stablemate, My Murphy, has no such worries, and looks primed to run his usual solid race, and though maybe pushing it for win purposes, I see no reason why he can’t be involved as they’re heading for home. He eventually finished down the field in this last year, but he also finished runner up to Djakadam in The Thyestes. He’s often kept decent company, and rarely runs a bad race. Plenty to like about his comeback last week in The Foxrock. Available at a very generous 33’s with Ladbrokes, I’m not surprised to see the blue appearing on Oddschecker.

Joining him at the head of the market is Sizing Gold, who chased him home last time. From the Henry De Bromhead yard, that was first run after a long break, and always encouraging to see a horse show no ill effects from being on the sidelines. He was very useful as a Novice, and off the back of that run, an obvious player, though if I’m being honest, I’m just a tad surprised to see him the actual outright favourite for this with most firms. He could be joined here by stablemates Buckers Bridge, Grand Jesture, and Home Farm. Much like Sizing Gold, Buckers Bridge returned recently after a long spell on the sidelines, running well for a long way in The Foxrock, over a distance which is probably short enough for him now. He was very promising as a youngster, and prizes like this should be on the agenda for him from now on. Seen enough that day to give him a squeak here. Grand Jesture was “last out” in The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April, but they went without him when he played up at the start which seemed a tad harsh, as if memory serves he didn’t get enough of a chance to get involved. He looked very decent last season, including a great effort in front of Gallant Oscar at Cheltenham. He deserves some compensation for that day at Sandown, where he was seriously fancied, and he has the look of something of a forgotten horse here, generally available at 25’s. It’s been a while since Home Farm ran a decent race, and I’d like to see him come down a few pounds, as he promised so much a couple of years back.

Last years winner, Living Next Door, has only been seen once since then, pulling up over hurdles on his comeback, and although that wouldn’t particularly concern me, I’d be more worried that he’ll come here 15 lbs higher, and for a horse who’s always been a bit in and out, I’ll be brave, and pass him over.

Ballychorus looked held to me, when she came down at the last in The Troytown, and she’ll come here 3 lbs higher as well. No doubt she was really progressing before that, winning for fun, and I could see a decent run, without quite getting her head in front, as this will be tougher. Owned by Barry Connell, who also has Sammy Black entered. Sammy was my big hope for last season, based on his performance in the 2014 Mayo National, where he blew his rivals away, and he looked to have some engine, blazing a trail from the off. He clearly had his problems though, and wasn’t seen again till this season, having switched yards to the Alan Fleming stable. His comeback has been a bit disappointing, finishing down the field in a Handicap Hurdle, before falling at the first, and to be honest, as they approached the first, I expected him to fall, he was approaching it all wrong. I’ll stand by him though, and he’s certainly on my shortlist for this, I rated him highly, and despite his rather inauspicious comeback, I’m fighting myself not to take the 25’s.

Much like Sammy Black, Operating was a horse I couldn’t wait to see out last year, but something clearly went wrong. He looked set for better things when with Jessica Harrington, easily taking care of Road To Riches at The Punchestown Festival, and he was bought by The Rooneys, and headed to Donald McCains. He was never sighted though, and was part of the exodus of their horses from the yard, eventually ending up at Gordon Elliots. His comeback last month was very poor though, never really travelling, or particularly fluent, he was soon well beaten. He’s hard to fancy after that, though he’ll, like Sammy Black, be getting a “sentimental” pound or two on him, as he will become a “cliff horse” of mine. He’s definitely one for the future, he’s in the right hands. As well as a few already mentioned, Elliot also has Ucello Conti in the line up, though I’m struggling to see him good enough to land this.

Spring Heeled was a Cheltenham Festival winner in 2014, finishing in front of Cause of Causes in The Kim Muir, and he ran his best race in ages, finishing runner up in this seasons Munster National, just narrowly missing out. He’s on a nice enough mark as well, and despite finishing down the field at Cheltenham last time, the going wouldn’t have helped. Not out of this at all, and the less rain the better for him, which might be a big ask.

Another favourite of mine, The Job Is Right, is also in there to muddy the waters for me. He was closest to Djakadam in The Thyestes, before coming a cropper at the last, and also fell at the first in The Irish National, so not the safest conveyance. He also, however, made the frame in this last year, and also behind Cause of Causes at Cheltenham, so a case can be made for him. Has quite possibly got temperament issues as well, but after appearing to sulk a couple of times, won a hot handicap hurdle a few weeks back, and also ran adequately at Cheltenham He’s risky, but he does make some appeal at 25’s. I certainly want to see a decent run from him, with Aintree in mind.

It’s unusual to get this far, without discussing a runner from the Willie Mullins yard, but his 2 candidates, Urano & Dogora, are available at 33’s and 40’s. They both look overpriced to me. Urano ran a decent enough race in The Hennessy, travelling well for a long way, and he looks an interesting entry, considering the stable, who won this 2 years ago. I’ve been a bit unkind about him in the past, but was a lot happier with him at Newbury. Dogora is only a 6 year old, and has serious jumping issues. He fell in this last year, and has also came down on his last 2 runs. The most recent of those was in The Cross Country at Cheltenham, where he was just getting into contention. That was more like it from him, having looked out of his depths a few times, and if he could just jump, based on how he went at Cheltenham, then he might just have a race like this in him.

Another horse I had high hopes for, who’s also on the comeback trail is Talbot Road, though I don’t think he shaped that well on his return, and it’ll be a watching brief for him.

Guitar Pete is a decent horse, though he may lack the experience for this, and I’m still undecided as to whether he might be better staying over timber. Certainly got potential though, and hopefully he can continue to develop, and I just have the suspicion that next year might be the time to consider him for races like this. Sandra Hughes might have a more realistic candidate in Raz De Maree. Three years since he won, but he has plenty of experience in races like this, and could maybe make the frame, though whether or not he has the speed to win it, would be debatable.

Los Amigos has threatened to land a prize like this for a while now, without quite delivering. Not got too many miles on the clock, and a repeat of his second in The 2014 Thyestes, would give him a squeak here, though maybe just a bit too inconsistent to get my cash on him.

Dromnea chased home Rossvoss at Punchestown, before just coming up short in The Troytown, and he looks the type to get in the mix, without quite having the gears to land it. I think supporters would get a run for their money at 33’s.

There’s plenty more others down the handicap, but that’s more than enough for now.

Definitely Rossvoss for me at 25’s, and I’ve got Minella Foru at 20’s, I’d be confident with that pair.

GL