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Nobody really knows whether Vautour will be happy taking a lead or not – I assume that he would be used to following other horses when working on the gallops at home but it could just be a question of circumstances dictating that he made the running because nobody else wanted to or because whoever was did not go faster enough, so I am not going to worry about that being an issue nor his slight tendancy to go left when jumping.
I would have been worried about his rather lackluster run this time last year at Leopardstown but in a recent interview Mullins put it down to muscle problems that touch wood he hasn’t been bothered by since – for me I want a Vautour victory to validate the younger generation being a touch above the old guard.
The one horse I am not sold on that everybody else and his wife seems to believe is the one to beat is Don Cossack – rated the highest chaser based on two performances (that to me cannot be taken at face value) in beating Cue Card at Aintree and Djakadam and Road to Riches at Punchestown. The same Cue Card who was carrying a known breathing issue and the same Djakadam and Road to Riches who were coming off their career best runs in one of the most brutally run Gold Cups of all time.
Take those two races away and this season you are left with style over substance with a 12L beating of a good handicapper Rocky Creek and an 8L beating of a past his best Roi Du Mee. He was beaten by Uxizandre in the Ryanair and having watch the reply of that race again, being hampered at the second last only cost him 2nd place at best as he was never going to win the race.
For me he has always fallen short of the very tall reputation he has had (ever since his bumper days) and I remain to be convinced that he is officially the best chaser in training.
I understand the reservations many have mentioned about Vautour; it’s the level of validity they hold that I question.
Will he stay 3 miles in a fast run race on soft ground?
Why shouldn’t he? His breeding casts no substantial doubts, nor does the way he finished the JLT. So I’d rank that risk at about 5%Will he jump left so badly as to seriously jeopardise his chance?
He went noticeably left at Ascot more than once, but trainer and jockey say they have not given it a thought and that’s a straight case of believing them or not. Risk 10%Will he be unable to reproduce his Cheltenham form in midwinter?
Possibly not, but granted the improvement he should have made and the fact that Mullins knows much more about him and that he is not ailing as he was this time last year, I’d rank that too at 5%Timeform reckon, and I think quite a few would agree, that his JLT run would have won him the Ryanair later that afternoon, putting Don Cossack behind him. He is much less exposed than that horse and I expect him to have come on by five to seven pounds since March.
In the end, he is one of these horses, for me at least, who if you believe they will go on to great things, you must say that now, with no equivocation. You cannot wait for the results of the risk assessments because the future prices will have gone. And it’s only right too to declare your position publicly when you are totally convinced about an animal.
I’ll be just as willing to say I was wrong if he is beaten…but that is not a post I’m expecting to have to make :)
In the end, he is one of these horses, for me at least, who if you believe they will go on to great things, you must say that now, with no equivocation. You cannot wait for the results of the risk assessments because the future prices will have gone. And it’s only right too to declare your position publicly when you are totally convinced about an animal.
I’ll be just as willing to say I was wrong if he is beaten…but that is not a post I’m expecting to have to make
And who was it that said all those same things about Cue card Joe?….Sadly as soon as the rest of us jump on his bandwagon you’ve jumped off.Alastair Down would in his own Wartime analytical view have you shot for desertion.If this ‘Vautour’ does fail today it wont be the Ryanair route but the Champion Chase route he’ll take such is the regard he’s held in and such is the pace he can jump and travel at….My 14/1 will seem huge!
There’s a reason why Un De Sceaux is 13/8 fav for the Champion Chase and nobody is quoting him for the Ryanair.
There’s a reason why stable companion Vautour is 12/1 for the Champion, 11/4 for the Ryanair and 7/1 for the Gold Cup.
There’s a reason why Skybet are offering Vautour only 4/1 With A Run for the Champion and 4/1 with a run for the Gold Cup.Vautour has the speed for the Champion Chase, but also the stamina for the Ryanair. Possibly (only possibly) the Gold Cup too.
Stable companion Un De Sceaux has the speed for the Champion but does not have the stamina for the Ryanair. The Champion is Un De Sceaux’s only Cheltenham option.
Although Vautour is probably a better horse than Un De Sceaux, it makes sense for Mullins to go the Ryanair route with Vautour if (as expected) he does not seem to have the stamina for the Blue Riband. Owner and trainer already have the joint fav for the latter race anyway with Djakadam, Mullins also has Don Poli.Vautour has an excellent chance of winning the Champion Chase if taking that route, but the chances of actually going there are taken in to account by the odds available. Anyone backing Vautour for the Champion Chase is on a risky treble. First betting Un De Sceaux does not make it to Cheltenham, secondly that Vautour does, and then for Vautour to win.
Unless we’re talking about betting peanuts, if I was backing Vautour for the Champion Chase… 4/1 WAR looks a far better price than 12/1 or 14/1 all in run or not.
Value Is EverythingVautour’s Cheltenham prices reflect that we simply don’t know whether he stays further than 2m4f – even if he wins a Kempton (cue a move to Gold Cup favouritism), it is still no guarantee that he will get the additional 2f at Cheltenham – see One Man & Florida Pearl for examples.
If he patently fails to stay 3m then he will obviously be automatic favourite for the Ryanair as we know 2m4f round Cheltenham holds no issues – couldn’t see him going the QMCC route unless either something happens to UD or they decide to send Vroum Vroum Mag for the Ryanair instead (they were intending to run her in the Peterborough Chase so the precedent is there).
Don’t forget that unless there is no alternative, Mullins tries to avoid pitching his best against each other (Annie Power running in the World Hurdle instead of the Champion Hurdle) – would he really want UDS & Vautour in the same race blasting off in front taking each other on when there is another G1 at the meeting up for grabs?
Mentioning UDS, he has twice won over 2m3f on soft and heavy ground at Auteuil last year so the Ryanair trip wise wouldn’t be a problem but with his exuberant style of racing he is tailor made for the QMCC, as you invariably need a horse that stays further than 2m to win it.
There are a lot of negatives about Vautour today.
Trip, going, tight track, going right handed, wrong time of year
All the above will be turned around to positives come March as long as he looks the likely stayer he should be.
Gold Cup can not be written off today.I’ll double or quits your fish and chips, ginger, that he takes in the Gold Cup route and give you the Ryanair.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I’d hate to think if Vautour actually won today
Would be odds on for the Gold Cup in the circumstancesBlackbeard to conquer the World
Vautours jumping to the left last time worries me especially with Smad Place likely to put pressure on him from the outset.
Don Cossack for me.
Mentioning UDS, he has twice won over 2m3f on soft and heavy ground at Auteuil last year so the Ryanair trip wise wouldn’t be a problem but with his exuberant style of racing he is tailor made for the QMCC, as you invariably need a horse that stays further than 2m to win it.
Does Auteuil prove UDS stays 2m3f?
Look at how far UDS was clear rounding the home turn, and how well he was going at that point LD… And yet UDS only scrambled home by a nose.Just because a horse wins does not mean it truly stays the trip.
Or if wanting to put it another way – even if saying he just about “stays”, it can also be said UDS is likely to be a much better horse @ 2 miles – therefore very unlikely to go the Ryanair route.Value Is EverythingHave backed Vautour with a small saver on Al ferof.
Agree completely Joe that if you really believe in a horse you don’t want to wait till when this horse has arguably better circumstances, as the price may have gone by then once everyone has woken up to how good it is.
I think it’s a vote of confidence that connections have sent him to this race- they could also have run Djakadam, who also would have had an outstanding chance and ran Don Cossack close at the end of last season.
Have backed Vautour with a small saver on Al ferof.
Agree completely Joe that if you really believe in a horse you don’t want to wait till when this horse has arguably better circumstances, as the price may have gone by then once everyone has woken up to how good it is.
I think it’s a vote of confidence that connections have sent him to this race- they could also have run Djakadam, who also would have had an outstanding chance and ran Don Cossack close at the end of last season.
Surely to be a good judge a punter needs to explore all possible positives and negatives, otherwise “value” is not achieved? Sounds like Vautour backers are sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting “La, La, La”!
I really believe in Vautour, got the potential to be the best around – when conditions are in his favour. Evidence suggest conditions are not in his favour today.
Value Is EverythingBut if the horse is the real deal, he should be able to deal with conditions even if they’re not completely ideal.
Anyway I don’t see what the problem is- 3 miles he should stay no worries, he jumps very well, and the ground is nothing like as bad as people assumed it was going to be
that was the worry with this horse- that if it turned into a bog it might blunt his natural speed. good to soft should be fine.
Still worried about Don Cossack etc though.
Surely to be a good judge a punter needs to explore all possible positives and negatives, otherwise “value” is not achieved? Sounds like Vautour backers are sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting “La, La, La”
Ginger, that’s a pretty arrogant attitude to assume that because others disagree with you they haven’t explored all possible positives and negatives. Maybe we have explored them. It’s not the exploration that matters so much as the conclusions you draw from it.
Mentioning UDS, he has twice won over 2m3f on soft and heavy ground at Auteuil last year so the Ryanair trip wise wouldn’t be a problem but with his exuberant style of racing he is tailor made for the QMCC, as you invariably need a horse that stays further than 2m to win it.
Does Auteuil prove UDS stays 2m3f?
Look at how far UDS was clear rounding the home turn, and how well he was going at that point LD… And yet UDS only scrambled home by a nose.<iframe src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/CZP2Ehjpihg?feature=oembed” allowfullscreen=”” frameborder=”0″ height=”658″ width=”1170″></iframe>
Just because a horse wins does not mean it truly stays the trip.
Or if wanting to put it another way – even if saying he just about “stays”, it can also be said UDS is likely to be a much better horse @ 2 miles – therefore very unlikely to go the Ryanair route.The rest of that field that day were not actually closing in on him and he didn’t appear to be stopping – also bear in mind that the runner up Gemix was a very good stayer who went on to win that year’s French Champion Hurdle over 3m1f in which he beat Zarkander 15L. Incidentally, a month after that narrow win they clashed again over the exact same course and distance on officially heavy ground and with Ruby back on board UDS beat him by 7L.
Judging by his Arkle run, UDS seems much more tractable than he ever was when haring off over hurdles – my point being that if he was still able to win over 2m3f on heavy ground when over racing, I don’t see 2m4f over fences being much of a problem stamina wise. Not that it is likely that he will every be asked to do that as he screams 2m chaser all over to me.
Sorry to go off the official topic – just a note that the time of the first race at Kempton suggests that the ground description before racing of good to soft (soft in places) is not too far off so I don’t think Vautour will be inconvenienced by it at all
Ricci has just mentioned that Vautour is now 20 kilos lighter than he was on debut at Ascot!
I’m so looking forward to this. I can’t see Don Cossack being beaten, and
as a small additional interest I’ve got a little e/w on Ballynagour at
100/1, he might have a squeak for 3rd.
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