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I personally thing DON COSSACK is going to give these a mighty beating, he will go un noticed for nearly the whole race, switched off just popping his fences, i think vautour comes up to the last just coming off the bridle and the don looms up jumps the last and once cooper asks him the question he powers away from the rest of the field.
9/4 for the GC by Sunday morning.I’d disregard the worry about a contested lead for Vautour. I think Ruby will be very happy to sit in behind a strong pace. The horse doesn’t need to lead. He went on early at Cheltenham, I think, because some festival jocks seem like rabbits in Ruby’s headlights (that should be rear lights, I suppose) and allow him, time and again, to dictate from the front. The other factor that day was the horse’s wellbeing.
As to stamina, I’m not concerned in the slightest; any horse who finishes 20f at Cheltenham the way he did in the JLT will have no problem with 3 miles at any track.
Strictly on the formbook, Vautour might look vulnerable, but it’s what he is capable of that boggles my mind. His two Grade 1 performances in England are the key to why he’s such a good bet here, imo. He won The Supreme easily, despite being a ‘chaser in waiting rather than a hurdler. His performance in the JLT, as I mentioned at the start of this thread, was the most enthralling I have ever seen. His power and athleticism were breathtaking, but so too was the power that remained untapped – to me, that was the exciting aspect.
His Ascot run was far from disastrous: it was no JLT, but he was hardly thrashed home by Ruby, and Mullins specialises in getting his horses just ripe enough to do the job in hand – unless it’s Cheltenham where they will be ready to obliterate.
Outside of the three races in England, he has been odds against just once, mopping up events mostly at long odds on with, I suspect, the gas turned up to half dial on the gallops beforehand.
The 2015 prep taught Mullins just how hard he sometimes needs to be on this horse to get him firing all his rocket boosters, and I think he’ll come to Kempton in festival form, before being let down by his trainer then built up again for the Gold Cup.
I like Don Cossack an awful lot. I love Cue Card. But I expect an imperious performance from Vautour on his way to being a true superstar.
If the yard also runs Valseur Lido, I think he too will run very well.
Totesport/bettered randomly went 3s this lunchtime on Don C and I said thanks very much. Interesting to note that some bookies have taken on Don C – 9s to new account holders. Best race of the year for me and I hope we get a cracker
Thejudge1 is well named
I expect Vautour to waltz home and shorten drastically for the Gold Cup
If Vautour wins then he’ll drastically shorten for the Gold Cup, because he’ll have proven stamina (for 3 miles at least) and proven his (level of) ability. But he’s currently an awful Gold Cup price because if he doesn’t win the King George, for which he’s currently 3/1 (not odds-on!) connections already have Djackadam (Mullins also has Don Poli) and therefore will in all probability be targeting another Cheltenham race with Vautour.
Value Is EverythingThejudge1 is well named
I expect Vautour to waltz home and shorten drastically for the Gold Cup
I’ve said it all year Vautour is a QMCC horse Joe and your horse Cue Card is finally showing his true potential.All those slating the Tizzard horses last 3 King George efforts want to remove their blinkers as this race is his for the taking.I think ‘Vautours’ huge bubble will burst at Kempton and ‘Don cossack’ will be made to look one paced,the danger is ‘Silvianico Conti’,you dont knock a dual winner who’s been freely available at 10/1 an incedible price imo.The 2 Irish horses are priced on potential our 2 are the horses who have proved themselves and yet are 3rd and 4th in the betting.Its gonna be a tough pill for you to swallow Joe but I’m afraid you are going to have to take your medicine this time pal!
Ginger, he’s an awful Gold Cup price? 7/1? Seriously? That’s a wonderful price, imo.
Don’t you think he’ll get the trip on Saturday? Everything about the way he finished off the JLT says to me he gets 3 miles anywhere. I’m no student of breeding, but am told there is nothing in his bloodline which suggests he will not stay. His grandsire on his dam’s side is Dom Pasquini who sired Dom Alco who got stock like Neptune Collonges.
Had Vautour been confined to two miles – an Azertyuiop type – I could understand the doubts over the KG, but 2m 4f in a hot festival race where he cruises past the line and is still absolutely full of himself coming down the walkway…where is the reason for stamina doubt with this horse?
Horse is different class, Gord…roll on Saturday.
BTW, the only thing that made SC a dual winner was Cue Card’s flappy epiglottis!
Thejudge1 is well named
I expect Vautour to waltz home and shorten drastically for the Gold Cup
If Vautour wins then he’ll drastically shorten for the Gold Cup, because he’ll have proven stamina (for 3 miles at least) and proven his (level of) ability. But he’s currently an awful Gold Cup price because if he doesn’t win the King George, for which he’s currently 3/1 (not odds-on!) connections already have Djackadam (Mullins also has Don Poli) and therefore will in all probability be targeting another Cheltenham race with Vautour.
I have heard the argument from Kevin Blake that Vautour needs to win this to have any chance of winning the Gold Cup. I think he could get beaten half the track here and still go for the Gold Cup. The only way they won’t go for the Gold Cup is if he looks a blatant non-stayer imo. The vibes seem good about him and he’s so talented he’ll probably be involved but if he wasn’t it wouldn’t be a major surprise.
The thing with Vautour is that his form at Cheltenham is miles ahead of anything else he has done. He has thrown in poor runs in the winter months for the past two years now and who’s to say he won’t throw in another one on Saturday? If he did I’d be seriously considering backing him for the Gold Cup at the likely inflated price. He’s a weapon of a horse on his A-game and on the history of all the contenders for the Blue Riband he’s the one most likely to step up massively in March.
On the King George, Don Cossack is rightly favourite and the most likely winner for me. The form he has been in since Cheltenham last year is phenomenal and the way the race is likely to be run should bring out the best in him. If there was 5/2 or a bit of 3/1 around on the day I’ll get involved.
The one who appears as the best value is Valseur Lido at 25/1. He was a long way behind Vautour at Cheltenham but it’s unlikely we’ll see that Vautour here and he ran a fine race in the Durkan, shaping very much like a horse who needed the race. His chasing career bears some resemblances with Don Cossack’s at this stage. He’s actually rated 4 lbs higher at the end of his novice season while both won the Drinmore. The place part of the bet pays 6/1 and that represents decent value imo.
Ginger, he’s an awful Gold Cup price? 7/1? Seriously? That’s a wonderful price, imo.
Don’t you think he’ll get the trip on Saturday? Everything about the way he finished off the JLT says to me he gets 3 miles anywhere. I’m no student of breeding, but am told there is nothing in his bloodline which suggests he will not stay. His grandsire on his dam’s side is Dom Pasquini who sired Dom Alco who got stock like Neptune Collonges.
Had Vautour been confined to two miles – an Azertyuiop type – I could understand the doubts over the KG, but 2m 4f in a hot festival race where he cruises past the line and is still absolutely full of himself coming down the walkway…where is the reason for stamina doubt with this horse?
I think Vautour will probably get 3 miles, but will he stay 3 miles when conditions are testing? Don’t have a problem with breeding. Stamina is not all about breeding, it’s temperament that could prove his downfall. May seem the extra few furlongs on a flat track is on the face of it unlikely to be a problem; ground conditions, stronger pace and positioning/not settling could easily add to the stamina test. Best performances to date over both hurdles and fences have come not only at lesser trips, but in conditions which favour speed at those lesser trips.
Likes to bowl along in front. When a horse leads as many times as Vautour it is often because connections believe it won’t settle/jump as well if taken on early. Only defeat over jumps came only time in last eight races he didn’t lead, not recovering from a bad mistake. If able to lead without over excerting himself it’s unlikely to be a problem, but there are other front runners in here with no questions about their stamina. Possibly pushing Vautour to go faster than ideal, making it an even greater test of stamina for the trip.
Value Is EverythingHe can run well here on testing going and get beat yet still turn up for the Gold Cup on which should be better ground.
Mullins or Ricci possibly both said after Vautour’s Supreme victory he was better than Faugheen who at the time looked a possible Gold Cup horse. They think a lot of him and running him in the JLT instead of the Arkle suggests the Gold Cup has been a long term plan. Ruby knows the price of chips and was unconcerned about his jumping out to the left saying the Ascot fences are slightly edging that way. He can do the same at Kempton and jump left and run well and get beat as jumping out to the left at Cheltenham is hardly going to matter.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Think you’re right THM, if Vautour is well beaten they can practically forget the race. What Djakadam does between now and March will have a bearing. If Vautour does come through the test connections will probably run Djakadam at 2m4f on goodish ground to find out if he’s truly effective around that trip under less testing conditions. Can’t see them both going for the Gold Cup.
Value Is EverythingGinger, Irish Saint tried taking him on up front, and put in some fine jumps too, until Vautour subdued him a long way from home without his own jumping being affected in the least.
Anyway, I’ll be surprised if Ruby doesn’t just drop him in for a tow along. Smad Place will presumably try to make all, and if Fehily or even Brennan think he’s not going fast enough to test the stamina of Vautour, and perhaps even of Don Cossack, they will go on. I’ll be very surprised if Ruby gets himself involved in a dogfight up front.
There will be fallout from the hot pace, and I’m with Tommy, I think V Lido might be best positioned to pick up the pieces: he’ll be in my forecast!
Think you’re right THM, if Vautour is well beaten they can practically forget the race. What Djakadam does between now and March will have a bearing. If Vautour does come through the test connections will probably run Djakadam at 2m4f on goodish ground to find out if he’s truly effective around that trip under less testing conditions. Can’t see them both going for the Gold Cup.
Maybe you are right GT, but Mullins would love to win the Gold Cup more than any other race, being the biggest prize in the game and having saddled five runners up. Wouldn’t surprise me if he throws everything at it. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
running him in the JLT instead of the Arkle suggests the Gold Cup has been a long term plan. Ruby knows the price of chips and was unconcerned about his jumping out to the left saying the Ascot fences are slightly edging that way. He can do the same at Kempton and jump left and run well and get beat as jumping out to the left at Cheltenham is hardly going to matter.
Ruby saying about Ascot slightly edging that way, is bull’. How many other horses has it been said about? If it were true we’d here it all the time. Fact is when asked he had to come out with something.
Running Vautour in the JLT was a no brainer. Stable had three top quality novices. One a specialist 2 miler, who probably wouldn’t get 2m4f. One a stayer who wouldn’t be speedy enough for 2m4f. And one who is probably equally effective at 2m and 2m4f who just might at a push get 3m1f. It was therefore fairly obvious where Vautour would end up. Nothing to do with this season’s targets.
Value Is EverythingGinger, Irish Saint tried taking him on up front, and put in some fine jumps too, until Vautour subdued him a long way from home without his own jumping being affected in the least.
Anyway, I’ll be surprised if Ruby doesn’t just drop him in for a tow along. Smad Place will presumably try to make all, and if Fehily or even Brennan think he’s not going fast enough to test the stamina of Vautour, and perhaps even of Don Cossack, they will go on. I’ll be very surprised if Ruby gets himself involved in a dogfight up front.
There will be fallout from the hot pace, and I’m with Tommy, I think V Lido might be best positioned to pick up the pieces: he’ll be in my forecast!
I wouldn’t call what Irish Saint did as “taking him on” exactly Joe, at no fence did Irish Saint land before Vautour.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMXIaYH_VqY
Value Is Everything
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