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Don’t like it when trainers deviate from an original plan at last minute, immediately after Newbury they ruled out the KG to go to Cheltenham in January but now Coneygree (the confirmed front runner) is out, they decide to run (I am of the firm opinion that he wouldn’t have run if that hadn’t happened).
I don’t think this is the best option for the horse, it was a great performance in the Hennessy but over 2f further on very soft ground on a big galloping track basically against long distance staying chasers (five horse have run again since and only Fingal Bay – 3rd on Saturday has managed to even make the frame). At Kempton he will be taking on much speedier specialist 3 milers and horses that have exceled at G1 over 2m5f, I know he won at Kempton over 2m4f beating Fingal Bay 8L (giving him 3lbs) but he gave him 11lbs and beat him 29L when upped 6f for the Hennessy.
He is a galloper not a quickener and I could well see him trying to go from the front but with Vautour & Conti both also wanting to front run and Cue Card also likely to be close on the pace, he may not have the natural speed to get to the front to dictate – even if he is able to, I think he will end up being the proverbial sitting duck turning for home with the big guns stacked up behind him waiting to pounce.
I can’t help feeling that connections first insticts about this horse were the correct ones to follow, so I think it was a big mistake to change the original plan at this stage.
Seems a dumb and obvious statement, but the ground will be a huge factor. The King George is often seen as a speed race, but in soft or even softish ground, with confirmed good quality front runners it is a severe stamina test imo, with the nature of the track and the demands of the race never allowing proper breathers, which themselves are much overlooked weapons in a jockey’s armoury.
The proper stayers tend to win the race when the ground is soft or really testing, the likes of a Conti, Long Run, See More Business & Teeton Mill but you stll need that natural pace that the likes of Kauto Star, Kicking King, Edredon Bleu, Florida Pearl, One Man, Dessie and Wayward Lad all had.
Current ground at Kempton is good to soft (soft on the turn by the lake) – the weeks forecast is interesting
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=kemptonYou may well be right about Smad Place LD73 but his presence can only add to the quality of the field. This is a fantastic lineup and for me it’s never mind Christmas, roll on Boxing Day!!
Ladbrokes offering the following for the KG
Money back (free bet) up to £25 if the favourite (SP) wins
What about Road To riches ??
It may be the forgotten horse.
Third in the Gold Cup and 25/1 could be a huge price!!What about Road To riches ??
It may be the forgotten horse.
Third in the Gold Cup and 25/1 could be a huge price!!wont run. Will be in the Lexus were he is 3/1 2nd favourite.
Vautour for me is the most exciting horse in the race. He’s the one who has the potential to blow the race apart.
I’m edging towards him because of Ruby’s great record in the race. Ok you could argue that was mostly down to Kauto’s brilliance but the jockey also has an affinity with the track.
Vautour is a rhythm horse which we saw in the JLT. That’s certainly beneficial around Kempton when we’ve seen horses like Conti and Kauto just get into a lovely rhythm and run away with the King George. Personally I wouldn’t be concerned about Vautour’s comeback run at Ascot like some have been commentating. Most of Mullin’s have come on a lot for the run. He has a huge stride on him and a massive engine.
As for the others, Conti himself I wouldn’t be so keen on. Blinkers on, seems to be going backwards. Don Cossack is a worthy favourite, a rock solid horse that seems to have improved, but he lacks the wow factor of Vautour.
Yes Cue Card is back to his best and apparently deserves to win a King George. But he’s had three tries and yet to win one. Al Ferof has also had a few pops, and I’m not convinced he gets a strongly run three miles. Smad Place is interesting and a lot will be attracted to him because of the similarities with Desert Orchid, but this is a lot stronger than the Hennessy which he ran away with
I can see Vautour getting into a rhythm on boxing day and blowing them away, in which case the hype factor will go into overdrive.
I’m not so far from Kempton. Less than 10 miles as the crowd lies. Been drizzling most of the day and with further rain forecast it will go off testing ground, at least soft.
Thejudge1 is well named :)
I expect Vautour to waltz home and shorten drastically for the Gold Cup
On form Petit Zig comes out the best horse at Ascot despite jumping poorly. Runner-up already beaten by Al Ferof when coming down next time. Not only was Vautour below his best, but a long way below. It was his reappearance, so may be he needed it? Fair enough, however, not only will he have to get back to form but improve quite a bit too. Don Cossack and Cue Card are top class horses going in to this in top form. Those two are capable of running away with Grade 1 races for established horses (not just novices).
Main question from Ascot wasn’t even about ability, jumped left-handed. Is he fully effective on a right-handed course? Can get away with it against Grade 2 opposition or even fair Grade 1, but these?
Then there’s the question of is Vautour as effective being taken on for the lead? Silviniaco Conti is one possible rival for pace-setter. Another is Smad Place, improved a good deal front-running for the first time in the Hennessey, tactics that could be important to him. And the questions haven’t finished yet.
Is he as effective on very soft ground (if those conditions apply) and/or this time of year? Best performances to date at Cheltenham in March on good ground.
…And if Vautour does act on the ground, will he stay this trip on the ground?
Believe it or not, am a great fan of Vautour, an exceptional novice with bags of potential and am sure he’ll win many Grade 1 races. Possibly even this one. But why is he so short for this given the opposition and all the question marks?
Value Is EverythingThanks to those for the nice comments last week on my misfortune with Coneygree..
It’s taken a while to get over for me…absolutely devastated me for something I’ve looked forward to for so long and a race I’ve visualised in my mind hundreds of times…the ups and downs I’ve gone through with this horse and this race is enough to finish someone off…still love the horse to bits though and hope we see him back soon…
On to the race now….I think it shows my disappointment that I’ve arranged to go out somehwhere now on boxing day and will miss it…it would have been impossible to move me from the tv in other circumstances…it is still an absolutely mouthwatering race though and promises to be a cracker…
I’m siding with Don Cossack now…think it will be a proper test with maybe one or two likely to be vying for the lead early ensuring a proper gallop and I can just see him staying on strongest….I couldn’t fancy him at Cheltenham so for me this is his big race…I can see him just grinding down and a very brave hat-trick bid from a rejuvenated Silviniaco Conti…back at a venue he goes really well at….there’s every possibility I could have got Vautour horribly wrong and it would be a fantastic thing to see if he blew this field apart…I just don’t see it though….the JLT beating novices on decent ground and the King George on possibly testing ground are worlds apart IMO….he wasn’t impressive last time struggling to see off Ptit Zig in receipt of weight and at this time last year ran a stinker when beaten by Clarcam….that was his second run of the campaign last season aswell so needing the run couldnt be blamed like they were saying at Ascot…
Cue Card I can’t see after failing three times before….we’ve heard the old breathing op excuses…but surely they can’t blame defeat in three King Georges on the horse breathing? As impressive as he was last time….again, the Betfair chase and King George are completely different races and that last time was a very questionable race form wise for me…
Smad Place could be interesting if he can get jumping in a nice rythmn again like the Hennessy….I just feel that was his big race and he was cherry ripe for that and things dropped his way….a couple of times in the past when he’s really been asked to dig deep the tank has emptied…I can just see 2 or 3 being too good…
Al Ferof, another Cue Card for me…failed before and don’t see anything different this time…always wins first time and then seems to struggle thereafter….
Having lost so much money on the race already I don’t think I can part with anything else on the day…saying that, I might just try a tenner tri-cast and hope that there is still a bit of sweet justice in the race for me seeing as though all three bookies I had antepost bets on have all fobbed me off in my attempt to get a little back as Boylesports refunded as free bets…Don Cossack – Silviniaco Conti – Vautour…
Good luck everyone, hope it’s the cracker it looks like it could be!
Already on CC but will be looking for a saver on the day. That could be Don Cossack.
All the others have more questions to answer than Don C. I am hoping for a little bit 3s on the morning of the race
If there’s a concern with Vautour it is the ground and if it turns into a slog.
For me he’s very much the re-incarnation of the great Kauto. Same pilot as well. He has a huge stride, a huge engine and has great scope at a fence. He also has the ability that Kauto had to quicken away from others without seemingly doing much. I’m convinced in two or three years time he’ll be seen as one of the great steeplechasers and will be much higher rated than all of these.
But there is a but… like with Kauto, he wouldn’t want it turned into a battle of attrition.
If there is one to have a saver on it’s Al Ferof. The way he ran on into third last year proves he stays three miles for me. He’s now reinvigorated by switching to the all-conquering Skelton stable.
It’s time that stable bagged a really big one, this might just be it. I just don’t fancy Conti or cue card at all, and Don cossack is priced up accordingly.
If there is one to provide an upset it’s surely Al Ferof.
Incidentally I understand the two statements “I’m not convinced he gets a strongly run three miles” and “proves he gets three miles for me” could possibly be interpreted as being conflicting
However I think the first statement was rather casual… on further analysis of last years race it’s hard to believe he doesn’t stay three miles.
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