Bet365 Gold Cup 2015

The last big handicap of the season, and not surprisingly, a lot of the pre-race talk surrounds what’ll be AP’s mount. With no JP entries, many are suggesting he’ll get the leg up on 2013 Gold Cup Winner Bobs Worth.

Bobs Worth went into last years Gold Cup as a very hot favourite off 180, but just over a year later he finds himself coming here off of 159. He’s certainly been given a serious chance by the handicapper, though this is in light of 2 lifeless performances since. Never landed a blow in this years Gold Cup, but not many that day did, with few able to cope with Coneygree. That was following another poor performance at Leapordstown, and with excuses running out for the horse, there’s many suggesting he just might be gone at the game. In hindsight, his 2013 Gold Cup wasn’t exactly a vintage renewal, but even then, he did put up a great weight carrying performance in that seasons Hennessy, a performance that I still think was some effort. It’s interesting that he’s Nicky Hendersons only entry, and in a race he won last year, there must be a few willing to take a risk at the 16’s, especially with the prospect of AP on board, going out on a high. I’m seriously tempted to get involved at the 16’s, but with others on my radar, I might just pass him over, with the things maybe just happening too fast for him here, and the trip being an unknown. Absolutely no surprise to see him land this though, especially with his dramatic easing in the weights, and it would be great to see him roll back the years.

Current market leader is Le Reve, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s not been out of the 2 in his last 3 visits to the track, a track that doesn’t suit every horse, and this has been the target for a while now. He won here on Soft going in January, and the hike in the weights didn’t stop him next time out, in The Betbright Chase at Kempton, with only the well handicapped Rocky Creek, proving too good for him. There’s a chance the ground could be quick enough for him, but it’s difficult to pick too many holes in him, and he looks a worthy favourite.

The Package was a very impressive winner of The Kim Muir at Cheltenham, and if in the same form he should get very competitive in this. He does have a big rise in the weights to contend with, but he looked as good as ever that day, and he ran well enough in this a few years ago. He’s very popular at the moment, with a bit of 14’s left, with The Sponsors, though he’s as low as 8’s with Corals. Looks a serious player to me, and for those who agree, this might be the time to get on.

Rocky Creek is one of 4 Paul Nicholls entries, and he’s yet to commit any of them to this, though he’ll surely send a couple, at the very least. Rocky Creeks win in The Betbright was very impressive, though he had been dropped a couple of pounds by the handicapper, and this is a different ask altogether off 163. He pulled up in The National, and not the first time he’s disappointed, though to be fair to him, he did lose a shoe during the race. He’s clearly a decent animal, and on his day, I think he could land this off 163, but with him not a certain starter, even the 20’s available about him is not enough to see me siding with him at the moment. The other 3 from the Nicholls yard, are Unioniste, Wonderful Charm, and Just A Par. Unioniste was an early casualty at Aintree, and this followed a lifeless run behind Coneygree at Newbury. He showed his liking for the track here during the winter, but he was hammered for it by the handicapper, though I think in time he’ll show he deserves such a lofty rating. Like his stablemate, he can be a bit in and out, but he just looks the type I can see running a big race in this, and I reckon he’ll go. Track suits, crying out for this trip, and looks way overpriced at 20’s. I’m not as keen on Wonderful Charm, as good a horse as he is, and I would have wanted him to win last time out, to take his chance in this. There’s a chance the step up in trip will get him back to winning ways, but I’m not convinced. Just A Par could give me egg on my face as he continues to come down the weights, but I just think he’s not coming down fast enough, and I’ll swerve him for him now.

Just A Par was the horse that got in the way of my main fancy for this, Guess Again, in The Kim Muir at Cheltenham. He was absolutely lobbing along, when Just A Par jumped right across him, giving him no chance. I’m sure he would have taken a hand that day, though as said earlier, The Package was a very impressive winner. I chanced a few quid on him at Ayr last week, though this always looked the more suitable challenge for him, and I’ve taken a chance again at 36’s to 42’s. I think he’s got a few pounds up his sleeve, and I’m very hopeful he’ll head here. His trainer Tony Martin, also has Heathfield entered, who’s certainly been going in the right direction, and wouldn’t rule him out completely, though this would easily be his biggest test to date.

Also entered from Ireland is the top weight On His Own. A hard horse to catch right, though he does have plenty of good runs to his name, including a few this season. He ran well for a long way in The Gold Cup, before winning a shade cosily from the decent Roi Du Mee last time. He also chased home Road To Riches earlier in the season in The Lexus, and if forgiven his run in The Irish Hennessy, then I see no reason why he shouldn’t take his chance. He went agonisingly close to landing last years Gold Cup, so very dangerous to write off, with the ground looking the only negative for him.

He could potentially be joined by a few others making the journey across, including Grand Jesture, Pass The Hat, First Lieutenant, and Vics Canvas. Grand Jesture ran a stormer behind The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham, and that run puts him bang in the picture. I rate the winner that day highly, and no shame in only finding him too good. The ground and trip look ideal for him, and he’s not been hammered for his run last time either. The standout 16’s with Ladbrokes is tempting. First Lieutenant sadly looks to be on the downgrade, and ran no race at all at Aintree. I just can’t have him for this, but he’s one of those horses who’s hard to dislike, and if I can’t find the winner, it’d be great to see him roll back the years here. I thought Pass The Hat would have landed a big prize this season, but he’s been a bit disappointing. If he could reproduce a performance like his second in last years Kerry National to Your Busy, then he might actually have a squeak here. He might seem an odd choice to give a positive nod to, but I just get the feeling the better ground here will see him in a better light, and I don’t think he’s a 25-1 shot. We didn’t get a chance to see much of Vics Canvas in The Irish National, with him departing at the first, but his third to Living Next Door in the very competitive Paddy Power Chase at Leapordstown over Christmas, shows that this shouldn’t phase him, and although getting a bit long in the tooth, he could very well outrun his odds of 40-1, if allowed to take his chance. He also demolished a competitve field in The Cork National earlier in the season, so has some claims.

Just off favourtism is the Warren Greatrex hunter chaser, Paint The Clouds. Looked the winner for a long way at Chelteham, before weakening, and he was eventually swept aside by the winner On The Fringe. It’s a big step up from Hunter company to a contest like this, but I think he looks a natural, and I’m willing to forgive him his last run, and feel the ground might have taken it’s toll that day. The expected faster ground should be right up his street, and although I’d question whether or not he should be second favourite, a big run looks likely.

Philip Hobbs has landed this a couple of times, and always looks to target it. Of his 4 entries, Duke of Lucca makes the most appeal. Won well at Aintree the other week, and he’ll come here with a couple of pounds in hand. He didn’t have any excuses when down the field in this a couple of years ago, but he just looked in good heart at Aintree, and he looks primed to follow up here with another good run. 16’s looks very fair. Roalco Des Farges found only Tidal Bay too good for him in this 3 years ago, and ran well enough it in last year. I’ve always thought he’d go close in this again, though he’s hardly advertised his claims this season, since his win at Cheltenham. Maybe not one for win purposes, but can see him running well for a long way, and he looks a decent back up to Duke of Lucca. Bertie Boru looks fairly treated on his second to Unioniste round here in January, though he did unseat here next time. I do think he’s got the ability to take a hand in this, but he also made a good few mistakes in The Midlands National, and he can’t afford that in race like this. He was certainly in good form earlier in the season though, and I’d rather be with him, than his stablemate, Return Spring who’s looked out of form for a while, though he is down to his last winning mark.

One horse who I rate highly is Bally Legend. He did me proud in last years Betbright Chase, and he, again at price, gave me a decent return in this years renewal. He disappointed slightly in this last year, but he had a Wind Op in November after a few lacklustre performances, and as well as that run at Kempton, he also ran a cracker in The Plate at The Festival, at at a trip that would probably be short enough for him, and I can’t rule him out at 33’s. I think he’ll run a big race.

The sole representative from the Alan King yard is Pantxoa, and though he shaped very well earlier in the season, he had a fair lay off, suggesting a few issues, and he’s looked woefully out of sorts on his last 2 runs.

Royale Knight was my choice on the day of The Grand National, and he gave me a good run for my money, eventually finishing 6th. He had every chance 2 out, and probably just not good enough on the day. Hopefully that won’t have taken too much out of him, and the trip here should pose no problems for him. I see no reason why he can’t get involved in this, though maybe just a doubt as to whether or not he has the class required to actually land it. A very likeable horse. Across The Bay also took in The National, eventually pulling up, and off the back of other poor runs this season, he’s very hard to fancy.

Lost Legend is another horse who lost nothing in defeat to The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham, and he ran a sound enough race. He’s been going the right way for the last couple of seasons, and I think this step up in trip will be right up his street. Very interesting at 25’s.

It’s hard to enthuse about the Charlie Longsdon pair of Grandads Horse, and Ely Brown,on current form. Grandads Horse won very nicely at Ascot earlier in the season, before another cosy win at Doncaster. He paid the price for those wins, and having been raised a few pounds, he didn’t look the same horse. He has though, been given a chance by the handicapper, but he didn’t look the part last time at Haydock, and it may just be a long hard season is catching up with him. I’ve always liked Ely Brown, and as well as being a long term fancy of mine for Aintree, I’ve always had prizes like this in mind as well. He’s had a fairly interrupted season though, with according to the trainer “a few issues”. He eventually re-appeared over hurdles in January before folding tamely. I had bet him at big odds for The Grand National earlier in the season, but didn’t touch him at double those odds in the lead up to Aintree, as it looked a huge ask for him. In a race preview I did for my mates, I had him as first fence faller, and that was exactly what happened. With that in mind, he looks a lost cause.

Samingarry comes here “well in” following a decent win in a competitive handicap at Chepstow last time. Having ran in snatches during that race, he eventually knuckled down, and won it in good style. His runs earlier in the season didn’t scream winner of this, but there was a lot to like about him at Chepstow, and with him raised 8lbs for that, and with his trainer Nigel Hawke having a fine season, then he looks a bit of a dark horse at 25’s.

I was happy enough to get a nice return from Amigo in The Scottish National, but those profits were eaten into by the aforementioned Guess Again, and an each way bet on Edmund Kean, who also didn’t make it. I always preferred this target for Guess Again, but had Ayr more in mind for Edmund. I’m still in no rush to write him off though here. Well talked up by Peter Bowen before The Welsh National, where he eventually pulled up. Seems in better form now though, and only failed to catch the winner in the dying strides last time, suggesting he’s worth another chance stepped up in trip. Had a good time of it last season, and he’s still a good few pounds below that, and with the ground posing the main question mark.

There’s another dozen or so entered, and I’ll give them a second look should they make it, but I’d surprised if the winner isn’t from one of those above.

Main hope then is Guess Again, who still looks huge at 33’s, and I’d be surprised if he isn’t at least half the price on the day……..should he make it. I had to take that to five places. I’ve added Vic’s Canvas at 40’s each way too.

Good luck