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I doubt whether I will be bothering with a bet on this. Sadly, it does not bear comparison with the glory days of the Whitbread but it is still a competitive heat.
Of those near the top of the market I would quickly scrub out Duke Of Lucca and Just A Par. Duke Of Lucca fell over the line in a much weaker race at Aintree and it appears Just A Par has turned into a complete rogue. Personally, I wouldn’t trust him in a three runner race.
I backed Guess Again at Cheltenham and his chance was effectively ended by the above’s errant passage. He was tanking at the time but this is a tougher race and more importantly he is a horse who performs best fresh. Add in he is half the price this time so not that difficult to leave alone.
Grand Jesture looks the most likely option but any perceived value is fast disappearing.
6 of the last 7 winners had an OR 12-14lbs below the top rated horse.
Rocky Creek (163) no horses rated 151-153So that throws out the trend comparing ratings to top OR, however those same 6 previously mentioned carried weights in the range 10-5 to 11-0.
Applying this trend leaves 5 horses, the 3 following the OR trend…
Grand Jesture 10-10
The Package 10-10
Le Reve 10-10and also…
Bally Legend 10-5
Vics Canvas 10-5Despite now having a list of 5 to view, I am going to stick with The Package.
Good luck with your bets !
Vic’s Canvas has done a lot of running on right handed tracks. I did fancy him for his last race when he fell.
Ely Brown and the package for me good luck all. I think EB deserves another chance in spite of the national in the hope his wind op has done the job. The package has run well here before and if Cheltenham hasn’t taken too much out of him he should run well
Algernon Pazham 20/1 is massive. Being out of the handicap puts a lot of punters off, but he’s got scope to improve over this trip and has a better conditional on today, with a bigger claim. Stable have hit form in the last few days. Also backed Grand Jesture. The way he stayed on at Cheltenham in the 3m handicap was a big step forward. Royale Knight is worth a small bet too, moved well for a long way in the Grand National. Price makes it worth taking a chance he’s over that run. Steadily progressive.
Saved on: Le Reve could yet improve upped in distance here. Vics Canvas Walsh on board, impressive winning Cork Grand National, and Wonderful Charm difficult to know if he’ll stay, but equally hasn’t had the chance to showw what he can do at the trip, worth a saver at 20’s+.
The others: Rocky Creek is not as well handicapped now and best fresh, not here. Bobs Worth has shown nothing of late. Unioniste bad fall at Aintree puts me off. Nicholls is good at refreshing them, could run well at this trip but needs to improve to win. The Package best very fresh, not here. Bally Legend not well enough handicapped, doubtful stayer. Lost Legend is inconsistent. Just A Par is a dog. Grandad’s Horse out of form and doubtful stayer. Ely Brown has had his physical problems since showing his form. Roalco Des Farges imo doesn’t find enough off the bridle to win a race like this. Return Spring has disappointed in big fields recently. Duke Of Lucca seems at his best at Aintree. Paint The Clouds has scope to do better, but at this trip? Just how much ability Guess Again still has for Mr “Lay one Out” Martin remains to be seen.
Value Is EverythingI only looked at this race last night and settled on Vics Canvas at 14/1. Having just read the thread I see VTC said he was 40/1 in the opening post. Talk about missing the boat.
Fell at the first in the Irish National but previously shaped as if the trip (3m) was too short when third at Leopardstown. He won the Munster National by 10L earlier in the season and will be suited by this test over 3m 5f.
Vic’s, Royale, Algernon and Ely are my bets; my best chance being a place with Royale. Very open race and think Rocky could do really well.
Well, what can you say?
Why was Grand Jesture so far away from the others when they lined up?
All the best to young Sean Bowen but I wouldn’t have picked that one. Rocky Creek is clearly a horse not to be trusted and Bobs Worth is long gone at this game.
Never been a lucky race for me and that isn’t changing any time soon.
Well done anyone who found Just A Par.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done Raymo, well picked out, and a cracking ride given to him by young Sean Bowen too. I have to admit I hadn’t even considered him.
I was happy with Algernon Pazham’s run, no complaints, he’s only 6 and I think there will be more to come with him.I agree with you too, what on earth was the starter up to, surely he didn’t see Grand Jesture, he certainly didn’t ask the field to hold on while he joined them. It would be different if they had been kept waiting for him for some time. It looks a monumental blunder.
For me the starter hasn’t seen him!! He didn’t give him any opportunity to line up with the rest!!
A genuine error but is there no dispensation to declare the horse a non runner ?I doubt whether I will be bothering with a bet on this. Sadly, it does not bear comparison with the glory days of the Whitbread but it is still a competitive heat.
Of those near the top of the market I would quickly scrub out Duke Of Lucca and Just A Par. Duke Of Lucca fell over the line in a much weaker race at Aintree and it appears Just A Par has turned into a complete rogue. Personally, I wouldn’t trust him in a three runner race.
I backed Guess Again at Cheltenham and his chance was effectively ended by the above’s errant passage. He was tanking at the time but this is a tougher race and more importantly he is a horse who performs best fresh. Add in he is half the price this time so not that difficult to leave alone.
Grand Jesture looks the most likely option but any perceived value is fast disappearing.
Beginning to wonder if horses can read? At least the owner was honest enough to admit he was thinking of getting rid of the horse. Commiserations to those on the placed runners.
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