Bet365 Gold Cup 2014

Current market leader Roalco Des Farges, was a little disappointing in The Scottish National, eventually pulling up, after looking like he’d get involved on the final circuit. I would have preferred him to go for this rather than the race at Ayr anyway, as this seemed more suitable. Difficult to determine what that’ll have taken out of him, but certainly does cast some doubts about him. However, he finished runner up in this 2 years ago, and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock though to see him bounce back from that Ayr run, and go close again. Trainers runners normally worth a second look in this, and he’s very difficult to dismiss out of hand.

Another horse who’s finished runner up in this is the Nigel Twiston Davies trained Same Difference, having only found Quentin Collonges too good last year, and he joins Roalco Des Farges at the head of the market. He’s been a bit of a let down this season, but his fifth in The Kim Muir, a race he won last year, was much more like it. This might be just the time of year to catch him, and with him back on the same mark he was on when successful in that Kim Muir, well, he still looks big at 12’s.

Godsmejudge was back to form in The Scottish National, having looked out of sorts this season, although to be fair, he appeared to have faced a few setbacks. He’s pushing for favouritism, and his chances are all down to what he’s left behind at Ayr. I’ve seen horses run well in both these races before, when they’ve only been a week apart. Fortnight between them this time, and he can’t possibly be ruled out. Alan King also has Midnight Appeal entered, though he’s another who has a run in The Scottish National to overcome. He crashed out with just over a circuit to go, but was running well within himself at the time. Ideally, I’d like to know if he went on with them on the final circuit, as that may just have a bearing on how he’ll go into this. He can certainly be backed, based off the back of his win at Bangor, and a fine fourth in The Betbright Chase. However, he’s one I’d wait till the day for. If he did head here, then I’d be regretting not snapping up the 40’s. Some price for him.

The Paul Nicholls trained Bury Parade is well fancied too, and is another vying for a position at the head of the market. He’ll be coming here off the back of finishing second in The Betbright Chase at Kempton. I didn’t fancy him too much for that, despite him being well touted, and had potential temperament issues, after refusing to race earlier in the season. That looked as if it may have been a one off though, and he nearly made me eat my words, showing good battling qualities near the end, and on another day, may have got up. Looked to me as if this step up in trip will be ideal, and if it weren’t for him holding an entry for Punchestown, and also the bet365 Oaksey Chase here on Saturday, then I’d be encouraging people to fire into the 14’s. That’ll look huge if heads for this. The 25’s available about There’s No Panic really catches the eye, as assuming he’s fit and well, he’s surely going to go here. Course and Distance winner earlier in the season, and with the ground likely to be in his favour here, he looks really good value at this stage. Would be surprised if his owner didn’t want a runner here, and he’s definitely on the shortlist. I don’t really fancy Poungach too much at this stage, given what he’s achieved this season, but any runner from the Paul Nicholls yard, can’t be written off lightly.

Nicky Henderson has Hadrian Approach entered. As I’ve said before about Hadrians, he’s had jumping issues in the past, but there’s no doubt that he’s got a fair bit of ability. The handicapper refuses to cut him any slack, so he remains on 146 for this, but I don’t think a mark like that should prohibit him too much, jumping permitted. He’s potentially the class act of the field, along with…..

Spring Heeled, who has as much, if not more, potential of any of these, and not surprisingly he also holds an entry for that Oaksey Chase, as well as Punchestown. I’ll be betting him wherever he turns up next, but with so many possible targets, he’s risky at this stage. For those willing to have a go, the 20’s with Stan James doesn’t look too bad at all. Think we’ve plenty more too see from him.

Although just out the frame at Cheltenham last week, I thought Bally Legend ran really well, and if that hasn’t taken the edge off him, then I’ve seen worse 33-1 shots. Landed The Betbright Chase at Kempton in February, just edging out Bury Parade. Another, who if I knew he was heading here, I might just take advantage of the odds on offer. Behind him that day was Ardkilly Witness, who wasn’t far away, and was just out the frame. He’s won since, and although that was a low key Novice Event, he’s another of interest. I get the impression he’s been kept for this race, though the market reflects this, and he seems about the right price at this stage.

Burton Port, who still looks, potentially, very well handicapped, could be a real springer for Jonjo O’Neil, who’s just landed The Irish National. Ran well for a long way at Newbury, before only getting as far as the second fence in The Grand National, not giving us a chance to see how much he still has in the locker. Stablemate Twirling Magnet fared even worse, getting no further than the first that day at Aintree. He also failed to complete at Cheltenham, when already on the retreat. On the basis of that, he’s difficult to fancy, but he’s one I’ll be keeping an eye on the market for. The Jonjo JP combo will be aiming for a big race double with Storm Survivor, and he’s one I can see running a big race. He seems to be coming back to himself, and I get the impression he may be more of a summer horse, and with a good chance of some sun on his back here, I like the idea of him at 25’s. He ran very well at Doncaster last time, and but for coming up against an on-song Night In Milan, then he may just be a lot shorter than the 25’s currently available.

Welsh National winner Mountainous would appear to have the ideal credentials for this, with stamina to burn. He only got as far as the 9th at Aintree, where he was brought down, and worth bearing in mind that the trainer swerved the Irish National today for a potential go in this. That may prove telling, but I would just have concerns about the going for him, as he’s one who probably wouldn’t want it too fast.

Any Currency has been called a few names in the past, but he appears to be in good heart, and hasn’t had too bad a season. He went agonizingly close in The Cross Country at Cheltenham, and deserves a change of fortune. If he shows the same enthusiasm round here, and based on what we’ve seen this season, that looks entirely possible, then he may be a realistic candidate. Certainly value at 25’s.

The David Pipe trained No Secrets was last seen just going down to Roalco Des Farges, giving him weight, and he’ll meet him on much better terms here. He’s still available at 20’s and though, initially, he didn’t really strike me as the winner of this, I can certainly see him getting a fair bit of support in the next few days, with him being the only entry from the Pipe yard.

Venetia Williams has Houblon Des Obeaux, Emperors Choice, Rigadin De Beauchene, and Summery Justice entered. Houblon has had an up and down season, and it may just be he’s suffering for his 2 wins at Ascot before Christmas. He ran as well as could be expected in The Gold Cup, but his last run at Aintree was very laboured, and I’ll pass him over until next season. Rigadin owes me nothing after his win in the mud at Haydock, however, he seems to have been unduly hammered for that win, and was no surprise to see him bow out in The Scottish National. Emperors Choice has 4 wins to his name in the last year, but these have all been on heavy going. In fact he’s rarely ran on anything better than soft, so despite the season the yards had, he’d have to be passed over unless the heavens opened. Don’t think he looks that well handicapped either. I follow as many Venetia runners as I can, and always like those with Liam Treadwell up. I marked down Summery Justice as her main hope at Ayr, and that proved to be the case, finding the frame at 50’s. I managed to miss it, and didn’t have a penny on, which was a hard one to take. I’d have him down as the main hope again, and although he looks like place, rather than win material, he still looks a bit underrated, and is freely available at 33’s.

One outsider I really like is Restless Harry. He’s a bit in and out, and he’s had a few jumping issues this season, but based on the way he battled at Ascot a couple of months ago, then I’d give him a squeak. No obvious excuses for finishing midfield at The Festival, but he’s a likeable type, and although not the most obvious form choice, I’ve just the hunch that there’s more to come from him before the seasons out.

I thought that Bradley would have went for this race last season, but he headed to Ayr instead, getting brought down very early on. I thought he was destined for a couple of the better staying handicaps a couple of years back, but things haven’t went to plan, and having been an immaculate jumper at his best, his jumping for a while, went to pieces. There was a very strong suspicion that he may have had something ailing him. Very in and out this season, though he does have a course win to his name. He ran only adequately at Cheltenham last week, and he’s reluctantly passed over, in a race I’ve been very keen to see him take his chance.

Chartreaux got back to winning ways last time, having appeared to have lost his way for a while. He just seems to have his work cut out to land this though, having on the face of it, not really achieved that much. The 25’s, which he’s generally available at, seems about right, but he’s as low as 14’s with Corals, which, at this stage anyway, looks shocking value. Unless of course, they know something we don’t.

Soll hasn’t really delivered since being very well fancied for the 4 Miler at The Festival 2 years ago, where he was brought down. He’s only managed to get his head in front once since then, round here in the mud last season. His best run since though, may have been his fine 7th in last years National. Thought of as more of a soft ground horse, I’m not convinced that he’s really that ground dependant, and as he’s something of a standing dish round here now, he’ll know his way round. Starting to make more appeal as the handicapper cuts him some slack, and he looks the type to attract a fair bit of support as the race approaches. Definitely one to back early if you fancy him, as could see the 40’s widely available, not lasting the week.

I’m a bit surprised to see Rose Of The Moon stand his ground here, having had a tired fall in The National, where he reportedly bled. I think other have more obvious claims, and he’s very hard to predict at the best of times anyway. Be a great effort though to bounce back in this. Has bits and pieces that give him a chance, should he make the line up.

Carruthers would be a hugely popular winner on Saturday, and although into the veteran stages now, his run in The Betfred Classic at Warwick gives him definite place claims, the ability is certainly still there. He’s entitled to be a bit inconsistent at this stage of his career, and he does throw in the odd no show. Didn’t have a chance last time at Aintree, when he lost his rider at the start, and he deserves a change of fortune here. Regardless of how he performs, he’s bound to give supporters a decent run for their money for the best part of the race, and he can be backed at 33’s.

It would take a leap of faith to see Opening Batsman get back to winning ways here. He landed the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton last year, but the wheels have came off since. Beaten out of sight over hurdles at Doncaster, and followed this up when last of 5 at Kelso. In his 3 previous runs he had failed to complete, and it may just be that he’s never recovered having pulled up quickly at Aintree last season.

On the face of it, Court By Surprise has his work cut out, certainly based on his last run, but his second to There’s No Panic here gives promise, and he also finished in the runners up spot in his only other try over fences here. At least we’ll know he acts on the course. Not beaten far by Scottish National winner Al Co, at Chepstow in December, and at 25’s he’s getting a second look.

And The Man, from the Nicky Richards yard has had a great start to 2014, and deserves the wee bits of support I seen for him last week. Most of his runs have been with a bit of juice in the ground though, and the trip also presents a bit of an unknown. He’s not easily passed over, but I’ll leave him out of the equation for the timebeing, especially with him holding an entry for Perth tomorrow.

There’s another 6 or 7 near the bottom of the weights, not to mention the bottom of the bookies lists, though I will give them all a look nearer the time, should the race cut up, and they end up making it.. The same goes for the promising Gallant Oscar who crashed out of The Irish National yesterday. I’ll concentrate on the principals though for the timebeing.

Hadrian’s Approach the one for me, but I’ll be adding an outsider, and Spring Heeled is likely to be the one. Both 20’s

GL