Scottish Grand National 2013

White Star Line

looks to be crying out for this sort of trip imo, if Dessie sends him over from Ireland i’d be hopeful he will

at least

run into a place.

Took 20/1 with BetVictor

Does anyone know the maximum number of horses permitted to partake in the race, I can’t quite seem to find an answer to that one.

I was just a bit concerned that Neptune Equester was 27th on the list, but if it was 30 then no problem. I see today that with some withdrawals he is 20 so thankfully he is an intended runner as my money is already nailed to the mast.

I see that Corals have pushed out Problema Tic to 33-1, I’ve kind of followed him, and done ok although he disappoints sometimes. I’m inclined to have an e/w at 33-1 in case this is his time to come good, if he runs he won’t be anywhere near as big as that.

Think the ground’s gone against him. Am wondering about Silver by Nature if he has recovered from his bout of colic. It’s a big ask and I’m not expecting him to run but he’s pretty classy and he’s got his ground [also connections that very much want this race]. Thankfully placed my bet on Receccas Choice yesterday [still in the race thus far and guaranteed a run].

Hi Moe
I can see where you are coming from with Rebeccas Choice, a good showing in the Midlands national and will be suited by the ground and distance. I hope you got one of the bigger prices, I see it’s into 20-1.

When you said "think the grounds gone against him", were you talking about Problema Tic ?. He has won on soft and was running well enough in the Becher Chase at Aintree last year on heavy ground before he came down at the 17th. I’m not saying we wouldn’t maybe like better ground but I think he will handle it ok.

Best of luck with your punt

Rebeccas Choice in to 20/1 and blued up on every bookmaker, still good value at 20s though methinks, but 28s was huge!!

Big Occasion in to 8s today from 14/1, the value’s gone on that one now.

Rigadin De Beauchene in from 28 to 20s, that was a decent price also, apart from one dodgy run he’s had a very good season.

Anyone feeling Lion Na Bearnai for this? Still listed in the race and at 25/1 that looks big if he’s fit?

Latest article I could find about him running or not:

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol … -wait.html

Jim, it looks like the trainer is going to run him going by a report today in the RP …… Gibney said: "The horse scoped cleanly and is all set to travel. Robbie McNamara is going to ride him as 11st 11lb is a lot of weight and his regular partner Andrew Thornton is too light for that sort of weight.
"It’s a big ask for a horse who has run only once since his Irish National win, but we’re travelling and hoping for the best."

I’m not going to put you off him, he was a good winner of the Irish national, but like the trainer says, he has had a hike in the weights since then and it is a lot to carry.

Best of luck

Hopefully Harvey Smith continues to talk down Aurora’s chance – better value for me. Mark of 148 is less than it might have been. Only 5 lbs more than he carried to second place last year, beaten just a head, a full 15 lengths clear of the 3rd. Now on a mark 2 lbs

less

than the handicapper thought that performance warrented.

Harvey is also concerned about the ground. But unless it comes up very soft/heavy it should not be a problem. For sure Aurora’s ran poorly on soft ground of late, but that’s been in the Winter. Form is far superior in the Spring, so likely to have been below form in Winter whatever the ground. Won listed handicap on "soft" in May of 2010 and Aintree was on the soft side of good too.

Spring record (March, April and May) over obstacles:
1 from 3 in 2008
2 from 4 in 2009
1 from 4 in 2010
Did not run 2011
1 from 4 in 2012
1 from 2 so far in 2013
6 wins in 17 runs for a

srike rate of 35% in the Spring

.
At other times of the year (June through to february (inclusive)) his strike rate is 2 from 27,

just 7.4%

, and those 2 victories came early in his career in a novice hurdle and novice chase. Strike rates are not the be all and end all, sometimes horses can run equally as well by not winning, but Aurora’s Encore has very few good runs to his name away from the Spring.

Admittedly there is a possibility (may be even probability) Aurora’s won’t be over Liverpool excertions, but in each year to race once finding form in the Spring has kept it for at least one more start. We know he goes well at the course and prominent runners are usually favoured in the Scottish National.

I’ll probably be backing four or five, but Aurora’s Encore will be one of them at current prices.

Doesn’t bother you that only 1 horse in history have won Aintree first then Ayr Grand National in same season, which is of course RED RUM in 1974, which I think was his best year.

While 2 others have done the Ayr version first, Earth Summit & Little Polveir, although Little Polveir fell at the chair before winning his scottish national.

If the ground is drying out like it suggests I will try Bradley in this, as he is clearly not going to Sandown!

Interested in Nuts N Bolts and Fill The Power too.