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Think we all need a break after Aintree, but the entries are out for this anyway…….
My main fancy at the moment would be <b>Tour Des Champs</b>. I’ve had high hopes for him all season. Seems, touch wood, that his jumpings been sorted out, and his recent runs have had their excuses. Big negative is that he’s had a long hard Novice Season, and trainer has other options so there’s the possibility he may give it a miss, but NTD likes a runner or 2 in it, and isn’t a stranger to success in it, including with Novices. At 33’s each way, I’m willing to take a chance.
Others of interest include fellow Novices <b>Houblon Des Obeaux</b>, and <b>Godsmejudge</b>. Both seem the type to run well here, but no idea whether this would be a serious target or not. Houblon can be slightly frustrating, but there’s no doubt there’s been some promise from him this season. Godsmejudge looks the type to become a staple in these types of races over the coming seasons, and a big run would not be a surprise.
<b>Same Difference</b> was an impressive winner at Cheltenham, and as he’s a horse who clearly could go on to better things, comes into the equation.
Of the others, well, <b>Always Right</b> had a timely return to form last time out, and interesting that Aintree wasn’t on the agenda this season.
That old rogue <b>King Fontaine</b> is another who’s had a return to form, and would have a chance if in the same mood as when finishing 3rd in last years renewal behind Merigo and Auroras Encore. On the subject of Auroras, he’s sneaked under the radar a bit, but I have a sneaky feeling he could have one of these big staying chases in him.
Been lucky enough to catch <b>Big Occasion</b>, <b>Sole Witness</b>, and <b>Monsieur Cadou</b> right this season, and they would also be of interest. Big Occasion was very impressive at Uttoxeter, and a repeat performance would give him a live chance. I’d be slightly surprised to see Sole Witness turn up, but he’s a horse I like, and when he’s not clouting the odd fence, he’s got potential. If Monsieur Cadou can translate his form from Haydock to Ayr then he certainly comes into the equation.
<b>Chicago Grey</b>, and <b>Tarquinius</b> are entered from the Gordon Elliot yard. Both had a hard race yesterday. CG was very disappointing at Aintree, and also flopped in this 2 years ago. Tarq ran a lot better than his stablemate, and will be of interest to me in any of the big staying chases in the future after that.
<b>Bradley</b> is another horse who I’ve always had in mind for this type of challenge, but his last few runs have suggested some type of physical issue niggling him. If that’s been rectified, then fair enough, but even then, I’d see The Bet 365 Gold Cup as slightly more suitable.
Plenty others obviously, and no doubt something will stand out on the day, and the next fortnight, but for the timebeing, happy with 33’s on Tour Des Champs.
GL
You’ve missed the most obvious winner of them all –
King Fontaine
. Third last year off a mark of 127, needs good ground, like Aurora’s Encore, who franked the form at the weekend. Now down to 116, second last time out a couple of weeks ago at Haydock. He’ll have his ground, his trip and at 20/1 is an insane price.
I rather fancied Nuts’n’Bolts at Cheltenham although he didn’t run very well. Looking at the Scottish very quickly yesterday I liked the look of Godsmejudge. When do we know the weights?
I was all over Merigo like a rash on here last year (probably my last winner !) and for Auroras Encore to go down to that course specialist off a mark 10lb higher than his rating prior to Saturday was a sterling effort – isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing.
We’ll see what the handicapper does to him on Wednesday but if he’s raises him less than 10lb – he is 11 after all – then for a horse who has cracking course form he’d be the first and last place I’d look. In addition to his 2nd last year he won a novice chase by 17L off 129.
2 weeks is a short space of time between the two tough races but it has been done and if I knew 100% that connections would let him take his chance I’d be mopping up plenty of the 12s about him emulating Red Rum in carrying out the double.
Lee
WTF is the handicapper up to giving Auroras Encore an extra 11lb ?
He’s 11 years old and that’ll the end of his winning days. If he were mine I’d retire him now and let him bask in the glory.
Clearly no coincidence that it’s been years since a National winner won another race thereafter.
Clown.
Back to the Ayr race and I’d be interested in Well Refreshed if the ground were to ride soft but given that is unlikely I’m struggling. Although if Nicky lets him take his chance Hadrian’s Approach looks to have been crying out for a trip all season – is he old enough though ?.
Always Right ran well here in the past and is off a similar mark, although barring his last run his form hasn’t been inspiring since his 3rd here in 2011. The ground could come right though and he’s shortening up on the machine.
Godsmejudge is also blueing up in a number of places and could be an interesting contender for King but he had a tough race at Cheltenham.
Truth be told this is looking decidely trappy at the moment so think I’l park it until next week and with the decidedly dross affairs on offer this weekend stick to the Masters.
Lee
wilsonl,
You say in the earlier post that if Auroras Encore received a 9lb or less rise in the handicap he would be the first and last place you would look for the winner but having received only a 2lb higher rise than that you state, WTF is the handicapper doing putting him up 11lbs, he’s 11 years old now, that will be the end of his winning days and that you would retire him now.
How can there be such a differential in your thoughts based on only 2lb of difference in weight?
A good thing in the Scottish National to should be retired as no chance
He was beaten a head last year so every 1lb counts !
But seriously I was expecting something like a 6-7lb hike and then I’d have been interested – providing he still had a raceable weight.
But not only will he be 4-5lb realtively worse off with his opponents he is not exactly the unexposed type is he so there is no reason to expect him to improve on last years effort (when he also went into the race on the back of a win) and not only will he be officially 5lb higher than he was last year, more importantly – given the defection of the top weight(s) – he’ll be physically carrying an extra 5lb too (assuming there are no more defectors above him).
I’m a firm believer that ORs become less important over extreme distances than the actual weight on the horses back and 11st 5lb is going to be a hefty burden over an extended 4m.
Basically I was hoping for a similar story to last year, e.g. something around 10-11 from an OR of c. 143. Which considering his age I don’t feel was asking for too much.
With him prevailing this time of course though
If you’re happy to let the odd 3 or 4lb here or there go then good luck to you.
Lee
I rather fancied Nuts’n’Bolts at Cheltenham although he didn’t run very well. Looking at the Scottish very quickly yesterday I liked the look of Godsmejudge. When do we know the weights?
I was in Ladbrokes yesterday and spoke to a guy who claimed to have inside information that Nuts N Bolts is going to show big improvement, on what he has shown thus far, when competing in The Scottish National. Of course these rumours are two a penny but the horse’s age and profile make the claim feasible enough. With a name like Nuts N Bolts he will either be "nailed on" or his backers will be "screwed" before halfway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks steve; looking at the Cheltenham race again he was staying on past beaten horses at the end
. Not certain to get into the Scottish, though? But it’s a race the northern trainers really want to win, isn’t it.
How do your fancies fit the TRENDS?
• 10/10 – Trained in the UK
• 6/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
• 7/10 – Ran no more than 40 days ago
• 7/10 – Returned a price 6/1 to 20/1 max
• 9/10 – Carried 11-2 or less
• 4/10 – Won by an 8-11yo only
• 2/10 – Trained by Ferdy Murphy
• Have form on soft or heavy ground
• 4ml Cheltenham form works out well
• 3-7 runs in the current season
• 2/10 Favourite or joint-favourite
JOHNI have backed Always Right – I like his course form, recent good run and previous close up 3rd two years ago – the weight he is carrying is the worry.
Also backed Big Occasion despite his age, he was vey impressive at Uttoxeter, hope the jockey Ennis keeps the ride he seems to know how to ride this keen sort.
I do like Rebeccas Choice if he gets in but also might have a small ew on Knockara Beau who I was surprised to see had never fallen [one UR to his name]. Like Auroras Encore can’t help but feel he’s go a big race in him somewhere [although would have liked a different jockey booking]. And I still have to back Nuts’n’Bolts even though the only box he ticks is doing really well at Ayr.
Hopefully Harvey Smith continues to talk down Aurora’s chance – better value for me. Mark of 148 is less than it might have been. Only 5 lbs more than he carried to second place last year, beaten just a head, a full 15 lengths clear of the 3rd. Now on a mark 2 lbs
less
than the handicapper thought that performance warrented.
Harvey is also concerned about the ground. But unless it comes up very soft/heavy it should not be a problem. For sure Aurora’s ran poorly on soft ground of late, but that’s been in the Winter. Form is far superior in the Spring, so likely to have been below form in Winter whatever the ground. Won listed handicap on "soft" in May of 2010 and Aintree was on the soft side of good too.
Spring record (March, April and May) over obstacles:
1 from 3 in 2008
2 from 4 in 2009
1 from 4 in 2010
Did not run 2011
1 from 4 in 2012
1 from 2 so far in 2013
6 wins in 17 runs for asrike rate of 35% in the Spring
.
At other times of the year (June through to february (inclusive)) his strike rate is 2 from 27,just 7.4%
, and those 2 victories came early in his career in a novice hurdle and novice chase. Strike rates are not the be all and end all, sometimes horses can run equally as well by not winning, but Aurora’s Encore has very few good runs to his name away from the Spring.
Admittedly there is a possibility (may be even probability) Aurora’s won’t be over Liverpool excertions, but in each year to race once finding form in the Spring has kept it for at least one more start. We know he goes well at the course and prominent runners are usually favoured in the Scottish National.
I’ll probably be backing four or five, but Aurora’s Encore will be one of them at current prices.
Value Is Everything
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