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I did a little bit of work over the weekend, and narrowed down the list to Teaforthree, Balthazare King, Across The Bay, Bostons Angel, The Rainbow Hunter, Mr Moonshine – some good looking cfc and ctc bets!
How are these looking?
Balthazar KingAcross the Bay – I really like this horse but how well will he go on good to soft?
Joncol
I’m feeling an irish horse
Joncol jumps right, not ideal for the Canal Turn. Probably needs very soft ground too.
Accross The Bay would stand a chance, but only if he can make all. Seems to give up if he can’t be in front. May be better in smaller fields.
Balthazar King is interesting, goes well on good ground. Whether he can transfer x-country form to the National remains to be seen; Silver Birch managed it.
Silver Birch won a welsh national as well – that year I had the first 2 out of 2 bets
that will never happen again 
Also Lion Na Bearnai is out.
Is that true SJ?
Looks like Lion Na Bearnai is being shortened in the market. 50/1 with a non-runner-no-bet concession looks tempting.Sorry I stand corrected, he’s not out, last I read was he’s not fully fit and the owners have said he’s 50-50 to make it.
http:///www.grand-national-race.co.uk
I’m looking to place a £5 (£10) EW bet this year on that amazing Bet Victor deal – 6 places.
Any suggestions for a good value horse? I was thinking TeaforThree, but that would pay little if it placed
Patrick2810 I think Saint Are is an excellent outsider at 50/1. Has an excellent record at Aintree 2 wins from 3 runs with the other 2nd. These runs have been over the smaller obstacles true, but providing he has the luck in getting round, could get 6th or better. All his runs have been in the spring too.
New to forum guys, hello…
What do you think of these selections, i placed them in oct/dec.
CAPPA BLEU. 20/1 10ew — now 12,s
ROBERTO GOLDBACK. 50/1 10ew. now 33,s
FORPADYTHEPLASTER. 66/1 10ew. still 66,sCappa i believe will go very well due to the way he finished last year.
Roberto its just been tipped up a lot on different sites.
Forpady well its an unknown entity and will it make the distance.I just want one of them ti come in e/w and i,d be happy…
Cheers
Has anyone got the statistics for the number of finishers when Mr Frisk won?
38 ran Stilvi. 20 finished, 6 fallers, 5 unseated, 6 pulled up and 1 ran out.
There may or may not be more fallers/unseated on firm ground Stilvi; but injuries and fatalities are more frequent when things do go wrong. Not difficult to know why, falls on a firm (harder) surface will break more bones. Plus, the firmer the ground the faster they go and so the faster the impact…
Which is why it is a good idea (imo) for them to water to produce good-soft ground.
Are there really statistics to suggest racing on good ground is more dangerous than racing on soft? I suspect this is just based on perception. How many meetings are staged on good or quicker ground throughout the year without any great concern? Perhaps we should doctor the ground for those meetings as well so we never have good ground? The Grand National is a dangerous race and due to the nature of the fences there will always be a greater risk of fatalities than other races. All the tinkering in the world isn’t going to make it completely safe. It strikes me each year we are getting closer to having to answer the question as to whether the race should be staged at all. Many people suggested reducing the field size to give horses a better sight of the fences. That in my view would have been a much more useful and fairer exercise than tampering with the ground.
Magnanimity, Lion Na Bearnai, Bob Lingo, Wyck Hill, Bostons Angel, and Tofino Bay all out.
Are there really statistics to suggest racing on good ground is more dangerous than racing on soft? I suspect this is just based on perception. How many meetings are staged on good or quicker ground throughout the year without any great concern? Perhaps we should doctor the ground for those meetings as well so we never have good ground? The Grand National is a dangerous race and due to the nature of the fences there will always be a greater risk of fatalities than other races. All the tinkering in the world isn’t going to make it completely safe. It strikes me each year we are getting closer to having to answer the question as to whether the race should be staged at all. Many people suggested reducing the field size to give horses a better sight of the fences. That in my view would have been a much more useful and fairer exercise than tampering with the ground.
I talked to the jockeys doctor Stilvi, who confirmed injuries go up in both number and severity according to how firm the surface is; and he saw no reason why it should not be the same for horses. What would you rather fall on Stilvi, a soft or harder surface?
Good ground is worse than soft.
Most meetings staged on good or quicker ground don’t have the number of runners most softer ground meetings do, which may be why you haven’t noticed any great problem Stilvi. I would personally be in favour of "doctoring the ground" to a greater extent, to make good ground very rare (as long as it does not interfere with turf husbandry). It is also the reason why I am not in favour of Summer jumping and never bet on it.
Getting back to the Grand National, I think it is a great race but one more dangerous than most Stilvi. If there are ways of making it safer (stress safer not "safe") without destroying the spectacle – then in my opinion we should take it. Including softer ground and reducing field size.
Value Is EverythingStilvi Mr Frisk won on Firm going, not Good or anything else. This is one reason he holds the course record at that distance.
Health and Safety means it would never be that firm again, even if they have to water it extensively.
Totesport/Betfred, the only one going 20s Join Together and I’m pretty sure he’s overpriced at that and would advise a bet.
Teaforthree also high on my shortlist: both horses can be forgiven poor last runs. Why Nicholls sent JT over 3 miles at Donny Lord knows – he’d need 5 miles at that track. Not such an obvious excuse for T43, but I’m always happy to allow a decent horse one bad run.
I’ve had a few bets (win only) as usual. I prefer to bet half a dozen to win than 3 EW in the National.
In order of preference:
Join Together
Teaforthree
Colbert StationQuel Esprit
Saint AreWorth remembering they’re committed to watering if necessary to get ground on soft side of good. My guess is they will make it closer to soft for safety reasons. That gives the likes of Join Together & Teaforthree a boost, especially JT who is brimming with stamina but has a dash of quality too. Could go off at around 12s imo
Couldn’t agree more. Teaforthree’s performance in the Henessey (class), Cheltenham in the four miler (jumping) and prominent run style would be a match made in heaven if he had Join Togethers pedigree.
These two horses are purpose built for the national. Join Together is a bit sketchy and a tad slow though…we’ll see on the day. I’ve backed both to the exclusion of the rest.
There are obvious dangers like Sunnyhillboy who I backed last year and think could win it. I don’t think Seabass or Cappa Bleu will reverse it with him.
Colbert Station is a massive blot on the race. How are we meant to assess his potential. Papa Walsh and JP….!? F*** off! DANGER! DANGER!
Finally Poker De Sivola…horribly out of form horse comeing back from injury and a trainer who has had a lean spell but he comes in under the radar and will probably get as close to his ground as Aintree will permit. Is he the same horse as won the 4 miler and the Whitbread???
My top 5, in order, are:
1) Teaforthree
2) Sunnyhillboy
3) Join Together
4) Colbert Station
5) Poker De SivolaStilvi Mr Frisk won on Firm going, not Good or anything else. This is one reason he holds the course record at that distance.
Yes, I was aware of that but I was deliberately trying to get statistics relating to the most extreme conditions. I know it is only one race but I would suggest 20 finishers is hardly damning evidence against quicker ground particularly if you accept that the fences were stiffer and the overall quality of runner significantly below what we now expect.
It’s not how many horses finish the race that’s the problem, it’s the injuries sustained through both falling and by running/finishing the race.
Value Is EverythingStilvi Mr Frisk won on Firm going, not Good or anything else. This is one reason he holds the course record at that distance.
Yes, I was aware of that but I was deliberately trying to get statistics relating to the most extreme conditions. I know it is only one race but I would suggest 20 finishers is hardly damning evidence against quicker ground particularly if you accept that the fences were stiffer and the overall quality of runner significantly below what we now expect.
It’s my observation that when the going is Heavy or Soft, the injuries are reduced. My theory is less speed. However I’m sure someone else well probably tell me that I’m wrong.
Bostons Angel’s withdrawal is a real blow, so it’s back to the drawing board for a second in command.
I suppose my final four will be…
Roberto Goldback
Rare Bob
Balthazar King
Joncol (50/50)
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