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Small field this year, but I think it’ll be a really good race.
Price for Camelot is too short, but can’t look beyond him. Th formbook through Fencing and French Fifteen suggests that Camelot has the beating of him
Fencing was 6L behind at Newmarket and 2 1/2 L at Doncaster, which Camelot won easily. Bonfire was 4 3/4 l in front in the Dante
Bonfire lost to French Fiteen by 1 3/4 L last year
and obviously Camelot beat him over a distance he’d have wanted further on as well as better ground in the 2000 guineas.
But, not much in it and we don’t know how they will handle Epsom
The fly in that ointment is that Bonfire was exceptionally unlucky in running that day.
Even allowing for Bonfire being unlucky there is another line of form with Learn from the Racing Post Trophy that backs it up that Bonfire has got a bit to find with Camelot. If Camelot gives his running then he has little to fear.
All this talk about direct form lines between horses going back many months is quite tenuous. Camalot, Bonfire, French Fifteen etc have improved since last year.
Value Is EverythingPerhaps, but as a horse that was the only group 1 winner as a Juvenile and the only group 1 winner as a 3 year old in the field, he deserves to be a very short price as his level of form is markedly better than anything else.
Perhaps, but as a horse that was the only group 1 winner as a Juvenile and the only group 1 winner as a 3 year old in the field, he deserves to be a very short price as his level of form is markedly better than anything else.
Disagree EF,
It is not that
Camalot
has so much better form than the others. After all, he won a poor Guineas. However, what makes Camalot a short priced favourite is breeding; which suggests he’ll be capable of a considerably better performance at 1m4f. ie He already has (just about) the best form in the race AND is likely to improve greatly on that form when stepped up to tomorrow’s trip.
Bonfire
‘s form isn’t far behind, but his chances of staying isn’t as good as Camalot; let alone improve on the Dante form. He’s also got a temperament doubt. Having said all that, in my opinion the two horses shouldn’t be as far apart in the betting as they are currently.
Two real outsiders that may outrun their prices are
Rugged Cross
and
Cavaleiro
. Rugged Cross wasn’t far behind
Thought Worthy
last time, the winner may have the more scope for improvement, but shows a round action and less likely to act on the ground. Rugged Cross’s trainer is now in very good form. Cavaliero’s trainer is also in much better form than when he was last seen. Looked progressive prior to his last run and may not have acted on the All Weather. Neither should be good enough to win an average Derby. However, this may not take as much winning as normal, with negatives about many of the principles.
Astrology
won a 4 runner race where arguably no other horse stayed/ran to form. Looked to have a rounded action and has to prove he acts on a firm surface.
Main Sequence
won on Polytrack. His sire improved on dirt when sent to the USA; can’t see him winning an average Derby either.
Mickdaam
‘s form doesn’t look up to it and had an interupted preparation.
Minimise Risk
looks outclassed.
Value Is Everythingforget the breeding, and the form, and the hype.
I REALLY HOPE BONFIRE WINS.
or perhaps I should say I really hope that camelot doesn’t win.
andrew balding today came across as a genuine bloke, in complete contrast to that slimebucket aiden o’dodgy, and his partners in grime derrick smith and john magnier.
hate the lot of them. would hate it if camelot wins, although admittedly that seems fairly likely.
personally its fingers crossed that bonfire can turn him over, one for the good guys, rather than the boring, emotionless winning ballydoyle machine that are happy to put 20 runners in a classic and put away punters until the cows come home.
Do you really think Coolmore stays awake at night worrying about the punters? The punters have to deal with Ladbrooks et al.Why should Ballydoyle or Coolmore give a darn about punters?Their job is to raise the best horses and sell the best stallion service to the broodmare owners.They have enormous breeding operations world wide. Screw the punters.Andre Fabre ignores the punters also.Aidan beat two local lads. Is that your problem?
Just nipped up to the Boy’s Grave. It’s been a bit blinged up since the last time I paid my respects but the predominant flowers were a big fresh bunch of white ones.
So it’s pretty clear cut I think. White flowers with green stems? Got to be Thought Worthy.
There’s your tip from the ‘other side’.
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/bg2-1.jpg
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/bg1a.jpg
forget the breeding, and the form, and the hype.
I REALLY HOPE BONFIRE WINS.
or perhaps I should say I really hope that camelot doesn’t win.
andrew balding today came across as a genuine bloke, in complete contrast to that slimebucket aiden o’dodgy, and his partners in grime derrick smith and john magnier.
hate the lot of them. would hate it if camelot wins, although admittedly that seems fairly likely.
personally its fingers crossed that bonfire can turn him over, one for the good guys, rather than the boring, emotionless winning ballydoyle machine that are happy to put 20 runners in a classic and put away punters until the cows come home.
Hate seems a highly irrational word to describe some people that of whom you have no real knowledge.
Just nipped up to the Boy’s Grave. It’s been a bit blinged up since the last time I paid my respects but the predominant flowers were a big fresh bunch of white ones.
So it’s pretty clear cut I think. White flowers with green stems? Got to be Thought Worthy.
There’s your tip from the ‘other side’.
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/bg2-1.jpg
It was one of the best bets of the day, given that there is only one Newmarket trained horse running in the race.
Just nipped up to the Boy’s Grave. It’s been a bit blinged up since the last time I paid my respects but the predominant flowers were a big fresh bunch of white ones.
So it’s pretty clear cut I think. White flowers with green stems? Got to be Thought Worthy.
There’s your tip from the ‘other side’.
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/bg2-1.jpg
It was one of the best bets of the day, given that there is only one Newmarket trained horse running in the race.
That thought did cross my mind.With prize money of nearly £18,000 for 6th place, it is nearly as much as Thought Worthy got for winning the Listed Fairway Stakes. I think the very wet April can be partially blamed but there must be more than one 3yo in Newmarket good enough to warrant a place in the line-up.
I guess you can only imagine they’re all running scared of Camelot.
BTW There’s another very obvious tip in that picture of the Boy’s Grave running at Epsom today.
forget the breeding, and the form, and the hype.
I REALLY HOPE BONFIRE WINS.
or perhaps I should say I really hope that camelot doesn’t win.
andrew balding today came across as a genuine bloke, in complete contrast to that slimebucket aiden o’dodgy, and his partners in grime derrick smith and john magnier.
hate the lot of them. would hate it if camelot wins, although admittedly that seems fairly likely.
personally its fingers crossed that bonfire can turn him over, one for the good guys, rather than the boring, emotionless winning ballydoyle machine that are happy to put 20 runners in a classic and put away punters until the cows come home.
Far too harsh EGS, I’ve backed against Camalot today, but at the end of the year I’ll be delighted if Camalot is a Triple Crown winner. If Camalot is the best horse in the race then I hope he wins.
Value Is Everythingo aye, was a bit pissed last night, sorry if i offended anybody
obviously i’m not a huge fan of the ballydoyle lot, even if you have to admire them.
the general feel of the way things have gone, leads me to now believe that unfortunately, camelot is something of a racing certainty. I can see him being ridden very similar to how st nicholas abbey was ridden, and given what a poor renewal this derby is, I can see him winning by a long, long way.
perhaps hills offer of 4-1 on camelot winning by five lengths or more is worth taking after all
Brilliant!
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