St Leger 2010

I’ve just re-read Mordin’s piece on Snow Fairy twice and it makes zero sense. He doesn’t actually give a reason for why fillies do better. He points to the bloodstock bias putting off the top class colts but he says nothing about why fillies stay better.
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Hi Zarkava,
I am surprised by your response to this, I am a big fan of your input into the 2yo and 3yo summary threads as well as many others. But I am sure I have read comments from you on many occasions when you dismiss horses (most often rightly)for future events simply because the trends say so.
What else is Mordin doing this time, he does offer some sort of theory, as you yourself point out.
Keep up the good work btw.

Z, I totally agree all trends have a rationale, working out the reasoning is the fun part and is the bit that gives the edge.
Mordin did give a rationale, albeit not one you felt was sufficient. Reading the RP or betrends or other places …the rationale is sometimes omitted (or not expanded upon). Even your own work when you are trawling Derby or Guineas entries often lists the horses that can be dismissed by failing to meet a trend but does not always explain why. Frankly there is rarely any need as the reasoning is implicit.
I read the same Weekender piece and felt that Mordin was expressing perplexity as to why it appeared such a strong showing for Oaks winners was so rarely exploited.

Well he’s saying that the fillies are basically the best of the rest since connections don’t want to campaign good colts over further than 12f.

But no Oaks winner has won the St. Leger since 1992, albeit only 2 have tried (and both placed).

Godolphin are more than willing to run their best middle-distance horses in the Leger while Ballydoyle have so many decent middle-distance types that they can afford to run their 3rd/4th string at Donny too. Those 2 stables were responsible for 5 of the last 10 St. Leger winners, and quite frankly, I believe Mahler was horribly unlucky in 2007 behind Lucarno.

In recent years though which Godolphin middle distance horses have been genuine classic / Group one horses over a mile and a half? The reason they send their best (or near enough best) to the St Leger is because it gives them the best chance of winning a classic.

Dandino shows a good form, Paul Mulrennan seems to get the best him and will probably deliver at St. Leger. His an almost natural choice as Rewilding would probably reveal itself as the failing favorite, though he had been successful under the reign of Frankie Dettori, still his odds in comparison with Dandino’s set the latter as the better choice.
just for the sport, I’d still lean on Rewilding for place, for he is still strong enough in his form. Snow Fairy for show is also a hunch but I’m not sure how she will handle the extra distance and her being the only filly in the race.

Arctic Cosmos is the one for me staying on over twelve!! Looks tailor made for the trip,its juts a case of whether it is good enough or not!!! I am on at various prices and will be there on the day to back Arctic again!!

I’m on at 10-1 looks a very good thing. Bit further than what he’s used to but think shouldn’t be a problem the way he has looked in previous races

Her stamina index figures are incredibly low for a potential St Leger winner, Gordon. Only Rule of Law has had combining sire and damsire stamina index figures less than 19.8 in the past 15 years and he probably only got the trip cos McEvoy stacked and racked them up.

Snow Fairy stayed on well behind Midday at York, but let’s not pretend that she was anything other than outclassed (little surprise given the abismal form of the Irish Oaks).

Rewilding is bred to stay, battered Midas Touch in the Great Voltigeur (albeit in receipt of 3lbs) and has plenty of scope for improvement. With a half decent pace and a little bit of cover, I think he could win this race extremely easily.

Well folks, it looks like its gonna be a wet leger. Serious rainfall expected during the week. If its anything at Doncaster like it is here in Dublin, they’ll need water wings!

I took 25/1 ew about Ted Spread last night…well actually I tipped him at 25/1 ew but woke this morning to get the bet on and found the prices were smashed. Got 20/1 at Paddy Power though. I reckon he’s a Regal Parade – a totally different horse on soft ground.