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Time to start this thread. Don’t have much time to contribute at moment though.
I looked at this race on New Year’s Eve, and I chucked all the 2yos for not fitting the trends. Roughly, it is won 2/3 of the time by a horse that ran as a 2yo, and 1/3 of the time by a horse that made its debut as a 3yo.
Rewilding is currently installed as favourite, but as he wasn’t on the British radar earlier, he doesn’t count as having been previously chucked by me.
Anyway, during the week I’m going to have a look at the Wood Ditton, and see if anything interesting is coming out of it.
What is the situation with Flying Cross?
I have no idea what Aidan O’Brien has planned for Midas Touch, but he looked a St Leger type when winning the Derrinstown and he ran a very respectful race under the circumtances in The Derby.
I was surprised he didn’t handle Epsom, but Doncaster would be much more to his liking.
Well, we can give up on the Wood Ditton – it was piss-poor this year. 8 out of the 9 runners have run 14 times I think since, without a win.
Just had a look at the King Edward VII entries.
Green Moon
may be a horse for the St Leger. Has won 3 races at 10f, and is being stepped up to 12f. Doesn’t meet my trend of having won half of its 2yo races, but as I already wrote I chucked all of the horses that ran last year anyway.
I’m hoping the winner of this comes down to Australia for the Melbourne Cup. Weird, I know, but a European 3yo only has to carry 50kg. I like horses with that sprint that comes from not having been much further than 1m6f.
And they are pretty much always guaranteed a run…I dunno why but it is one anomaly in the balloting system for the Melbourne Cup. European 3yos are guaranteed a run.
Why not take the chance to run for $6m Australian dollars with 50kg on your back.
I understand that anolmaly Andy. It is just ratings of the horse. On the Britsh scale a horse rated 116 for example is guaranteed a run. It then gets the age, sex and Northern Hemisphere allowance to bring its weight down.
A little bit more difficult to get one’s head around is the mare’s 1.5kg allowance, for balloting purposes, so a 52kg mare will get in ahead of a 53kg alloted horse. This relies on equity, and the starting point that horses are 3lbs (or more) superior to mares generally, so this allowance gives the mares more of an equal chance of getting into the race.
Do you think any St Leger runners may come down Gerald? I know we are still what, 3 months away from the Leger? But I remember Changingoftheguard came down last year (scratched) and Mahler in 2007 (3rd).
It would really add to the race IMO. One of the best Northern Hemisphere 3yos, possibly a Victoria Derby winner (if they are paid up all the way through) and some of the world’s best stayers. Really nice.
Hardly anyone would start a horse’s 3yo season in Europe with the thought of running in the Melbourne Cup (except O’Brien?). Nominations have to be in by the start of August, don’t they? Also, they’re having their 5th or 6th run by the time of the St Leger. I’m not a Kremlinologist studying the minutiae of either Ballydoyle or Godolphin, and I’m not a judge of horseflesh either, so there’d be many more people here available to advise which Ballydoyle 3yo would be most suited by the Melbourne Cup.
Okay, this is unlikely, but lets see how it goes. We’re trying to find an Aidan O’Brien 3yo that will run in the St Leger and then the Melbourne Cup. I’ve got the APOB stable tour from
19th April
, but that’s not too revealing, because it will typically say "nice horse, will be suited by middle distances, won’t be out until later in the season".
Mahler
ran 3 times before running in the Derby, and then ran in the Queen’s Vase, Great Voltigeur and St Leger.
Changingoftheguard
didn’t win his first race until a 10f Maiden at Navan a year ago this week. The ones O’Brien currently has entered (8.55 Friday) are
Big Occasion
(Sadler’s Wells)
He finished second at Listowel on his only start last year and is a fine big colt who will need a bit of time to come to hand.Caribbean Sea
(Galileo)
He’s a fine big colt and should be starting off before long. He’ll need nice ground.
yes, but is that the fast side of nice, or the easy side of nice?Ferdinand Magellan
(Montjeu)
Wasn’t in the stable tour, but Zarkava knows all about this one.Quest For Gold
(Sadler’s Wells)
He has done well and is getting close to a run. He’ll appreciate middle distances.A couple of us were quite keen on
Flying Cross
over the winter, but he hasn’t run so far this season.
Flying Cross
(Sadler’s Wells)
He won his maiden at Navan very easily but is currently on the easy list and it will be a good bit later in the season before he runs.Another possible is the Royal Lodge winner.
Joshua Tree
(Montjeu)
He has had a hold-up and is just back in exercise. We’ll see how he progresses but he probably won’t be running until around Royal Ascot time.Edit. Also has a few entries in the 12f mdn at Leopardstown 9.05 Thursday, but that one is past my bedtime.
Nearly got wrong footed there. Ferdinand Magellan is running in the 7.55, not 8.55 on Friday evening. Race got switched with another 10f race?? Caribbean Sea and Scottish Reel are running tonite in the 12f mdn.
Gerald
Could London Stripe be a ST Leger horse for SMS he be in the King Edward at Ascot next week.
Not sure about having Rock Of Gibraltar as the sire, Darren. Also, the horse has to improve 25-30 lbs over the next three months.
I never understand why trainers run horses in Pattern races, if they’ve got a raceable h’cap mark. If he were mine, I’d forget about the Teddy, and go for the John Smith’s Magnet Cup instead.
So, is Mikhail Glinka now the favourite? Comes from the hamlet cigar commercial family of Percy’s Lass. I think the main reason I chucked this one for the St Leger at the end of last year was because it had only won 2 out of 5 races, when St Leger winners usually win 50%+ races at 2yo.
With Murtagh saying unprompted that this is the Gold Cup horse for next year, this may be the Melbourne Cup horse you’re looking for Andy.
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