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Well. only six days to go, and still no Royal Hunt Cup thread. I don’t know whether people were automatically expecting me to start this thread, as I did the Thirsk Hunt Cup one. Personally, I was waiting for halfwaytoheaven to pick the winner. The Wokingham thread is already taken, so I had better have this one. At least I’m not stuck with the Britannia – loads of toffee-nosed, public school Newmarket trainers with arab-owned horses – yuk!
No form study – all I do at the moment is work and sleep; someone doing my job got sacked last week, so I work until there is no more to do.
Don’t actually watch much racing, but the three horses I fancy are
Docofthebay – masterful training performance by Jamie Osborne to reduce him a few pounds since coming second in this race last year.
Manassas – only 5 or 6 pounds higher than when mullahing the field in the Spring Mile.
Webbow – interesting horse, put him on my list of horses to follow after the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Admittedly, one should only follow horses that won, but I never learn.
I was interested a few months ago when I read Prufrock takes account of randomness in his winner picking method. Not sure how he does that, but I bet it ain’t like this:-
as this race is one that trainers target, recent form might not be too relevant, so I used oddschecker for once, and had a few bets on betfair on horses that were substantially bigger prices than with the bookies. After I made the bets, I checked the horses out. They are all rated 90+, so I’ve got a good chance of most of them running. (If not, I’ll get my money back if they were balloted out.)£29.42 @ 24 Docofthebay
£13.47 @ 40.65 Axiom
£8.25 @ 80 Nanton
£9.81 @ 147.85 Checklow
£16.76 @ 141.93 Bushman
£19.18 @ 47.19 Philario
£17.17 @ 46.6 Manassas
£7.17 @ 65 Huzzah
£8.71 @ 129.15 Horatio Carter
£5.98 @ 100 Webbow[/color:2bvviwuf]
There you go – £135 bet, not bad for someone who earns £6.02 per hour.
How would you classify those prepared to analyse the race and then make the informed decision to wager on their selections?
Brave or stupid?
I’d classify them as of superior intellect.
I’ve just remembered that Her Majesty will be winning this race. I’ll have a bet on that one as well, once I’ve found out its name.
Am I right in thinking that they always say that Ascot throws up really wierd results?
It seems to be what they’re saying about the new surface, Moe. Can’t really comment, as I only started betting again last year. (Making up for lost ground!)
The one outstanding feature of the race this year when you go through the runners is the paucity (that means lack of Fist
) of big field straight track form. For that reason I’m with Gerald on Docofthebay who has been trained for the race and was second last year off a higher mark. You’d normally be looking for something a bit less exposed but those at the head of the market are very unproven under Hunt Cup conditions. I think I’ve done better than you Gerald getting 20-1 with a run…Like many not keen to bet properly on the straight course at ascot since it was ruined but love the hunt cup so.
I want a horse who is usually held up, physically a big, strong type, stays a bit further than a mile, has shown the required class, has shown form on the aw, and preferably has under 9 stone.
So Checklow is my pick at a big price if the connections decide to chuck him in alongside the fav.
You’ve gave me an excuse to watch the race Gerald. I’ll not have a punt on this one but i’ll cheer on all of yours. I do like the madness.
I’ve added Soccerjackpot at 20-1 NRNB today- no big field straight track form, but neither does anything else….
I always get tempted into looking at John Gosden horses in races like this one. The awkward thing is that at this stage of their career, they don’t often have the form in the book to win, but some of them are future group horses. It’s just trying to work out which ones are which. Can you sense some are being raced & prepped with big handicaps like this in mind. Maybe that’s just me reading too much into things. This year’s one "could" be Cadre.
There’s another one of Gosdens with a similar sort of quiet/nondescript profile in the 3yo Britannia handicap, called Invisible Man. It may not even get in the race, it’s only off OR85, but look at the entries it’s got.
) of big field straight track form. For that reason I’m with Gerald on Docofthebay who has been trained for the race and was second last year off a higher mark. You’d normally be looking for something a bit less exposed but those at the head of the market are very unproven under Hunt Cup conditions. I think I’ve done better than you Gerald getting 20-1 with a run…
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