Grand National 2009

I never actually thought that this one would run, so it is bothering me greatly. The one the Irish have sneaked in under cover.

Mon Mome was the first bet that I had when the weights came out, so I backed it at 33/1….all other bets I have doubled up on when the price went out but not this one. Think I’m going to cry.

This was my very first posting on the Forum. It looks like Trends still rule supreme for the GN. And no, I still haven’t bet a 100/1 winner as I was on at 65!

Hi

After reading everyone else’s comments I realised that I wasn’t going to get an easy winner, and the answer was to put some graft in.

I’ve entered all 119 horses in Betfair’s ante-post market into a spreadsheet, together with all the runners in the 2008 Becher, Hennessy, Midlands GN, Grand National, Irish GN, Whitbread, Scottish GN, Welsh National entries, plus horses rated 140+ over 3m+ on the BHA website.

So far, I have only collated the information for the Betfair horses. Being impatient, I dove into these. Threw out everything that hadn’t won a chase over 25+f, everything that hasn’t run yet this season, everything not rated 135-150, everything not aged 8-10 next year, everything that hasn’t run between 10-20 chases – I even threw out those who had Strong Gale as a Damsire. I then threw out Garde Champetre because Bolger said it would have the same campaign as last season.

I was left with just Mon Mome.

I then realised that what I should do first is analyse the trends. I’ve used the past 15 runnings, upto the void race.

First of all, as an aside, which six jockeys would people recommend for the National? It does seem to be won by jockeys who have a reputation for being sympathetic to their horse.

The 2009 National winner has probably run within the past 3 weeks, without winning. (Only Monty’s Pass bucks this trend in the past 13 runnings – he had last run on Oct 13, and had had a busy summer, winning the Kerry National in September.) Furthermore, he is likely to have run at least twice this season: only Silver Birch, who had run in just one Point-to-Point, bucks this trend in the past 13 seasons.

I was astonished to find how few chases some National winners had run in their lifetime up to Dec 7th in their GN winning season:- Lord Gyllene 6 (in Britain), Miinnehoma 7, Numbersixvalverde 8, Red Marauder 9, Silver Birch and Hedgehunter 10, Bindaree 11, Comply or Die 12, and Bobbyjo and Royal Athlete 14.

Despite the few runs, there is just one 8yo winner (Bindaree), and then five 9yos, 5 10yos, 2 11yos and 2 12yos.

It is 6/4 that the GN winner is a crock: Comply Or Die missed the 2006-07 season: Silver Birch missed 2005; Numbersixvalverde missed Feb03-Feb04; Red Marauder missed 1999 and had one race between Oct94 and Oct 98; Royal Athlete missed 1994, 1991 and most of 1992; Miinnehoma missed the 90-91 season, Feb93-Mar94, and never ran May-Nov.

This is good news for anyone fancying Trabolgan, though if he doesn’t make it for the old SGB chase at Ascot in a fortnight, I’d forget it; it seems that although a horse might be a crock, or ex-crock, it needs a couple of races in the autumn to add to the conditioning required for the GN.

12 of the 15 had already by now won a chase of at least 25f. Monty’s Pass and Red Marauder had won over 24f. Monty’s Pass GN was on Good ground, and Red Marauder didn’t need to stay, he just needed to stay upright. Lord Gyllene had yet to win in Britain (so there’s still hope for Nine de Sivola, ha-ha).

The trend for horses to be in the handicap proper, but to carry no more than 11 stone, still continues from the previous couple of decades. Exceptions are Hedgehunter 11-1 and Bobbyjo 14lbs(oh). Lord Gyllene carried 10st, but I don’t know whether he was out of the handicap.

Concomitant with the previous trend, horses have come from a narrow band of handicap ratings – the last 9 winners were rated 134-142 at this time of year, and 136-144 for the race. Bobbyjo, although rated 126 at the moment, had won the previous season’s Irish GN, and Lord Gyllene (129) had just started going. The three earlest winners, Miinnehoma, Royal Athlete and Rough Quest were all above these bands, but only carried between 10-6 and 10-8 in the race.

I was trying to get a trend that British winners either had form over the National obstacles, or had achieved a high Racing Post Rating in a chase at Cheltenham, but I think I was being a bit contrived, in support of Joe Lively. Counting Silver Birch as British, and excluding Lord Gyllene as Kiwi, all the British winners had achieved a RPF at Cheltenham of 145+, except for Amberleigh House (bundles of Aintree experience) and Bindaree (a distant 4th in the Topham). (Silver Birch didn’t attain his Cheltenham RPR until the race before Aintree.)

In terms of the National fences, it is probably best to have been hampered or brought down, fallen at Becher’s, or been placed in the Topham, rather than placed in the National. Siver Birch had fallen when hampered at Becher’s, but had also won the Becher Chase; Hedgehunter had fallen when 3rd, at the last fence; Amberleigh House had more experience than I care to write, but he too had been brought down in a GN; Monty’s Pass and Bindaree were 2nd & 4th in the Topham; Red Marauder had fallen at Becher’s; and Mr Frisk had fallen at the 4th last when close up in the Topham (is that Valentine’s Brook? It ain’t marked on the map on the Racing Post website.)

Numbersixvalverde and Bobbyjo had won the previous Irish National, and Papillon had been 4th, 2nd and 10th in it.

A case might be made for horses having come in the first half-dozen or so in a Hennessy, but I haven’t investigated that, and have written enough.

I’ll get back to you after I finished inputting the remainder of the 240 or so horses for this year into the spreadsheet. Next weekend?

Bye

WTF was Claire Balding thinking to ask poor Liam Treadwell to "show everyone your bad teeth…."….I would have said it were a momentary lapse had she not followed up with,"You can get them fixed now with the money!"
The poor guy just squirmed so uncomfortably. What a ******* prat she is sometimes.

Cringeworthy interviewing the 2nd and 3rd Jockeys saying well done when they are sat there devestated – wanted Ruby to throttle him.

Sorry for the connections of Hear the Echo – RIP

Of course Clare’s quite an oil painting herself?

I didn’t see it but perhaps he should have asked when she was going to get her Jimmy Hill fixed?

On the whole she’s ok. Still, bloody incredible comment! It’s a bit like a male presenter saying to a winning female jockey "Go on, stick your chest out, let’s have a look, not like that, properly so we can see your t*ts, oh never mind, you can get that boob job now with the money!"
O.K maybe not quite the same but if Tommo’s reading this… I dare you.

Very well done on picking the winner, Gerald.

Zip