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My three bets thus far are:
Southern Vic – another nice prep the other day and was unlucky to come down in the Becher.
State of Play – nice weight for a decent horse, will stay the trip and having an ideal prep.
Musica Bella – not very big but gutsy and will stay all day. Not too disheartened by her latest defeat in a decent hurdle over too short a trip and has chances if she makes the trip.
Currently on butlers at 20’s, southern vic @ 110-1, rambling minster @ 21’s, garde at 65’s, state of play @ 34 and Brooklyn brownie @ 80’s.
I doubt if I will remain exposed on all these horses come the day but currently they appear the most dangerous. Of those mentioned I consider rambling minster the best EW shot and garde the least likely to factor in the finish.
There’s not much else in the market that interests me at this stage least of all any Paul nicholls runners.Following his run in the gold cup i thought Denman looked every inch the national horse cruising easily at a 3 1/2 mile chase speed and i imagine would hold the gallop throughout the 4.5 miles required.
However, for the purposes of this ‘rant’ that is irrelivent.
Paul Nicholls volunteered a statement in January suggesting that he was firmly coming round to the idea of running Denman in this years grand national – in his ‘prime’ i think was the statement made. Following a multi million pound AP gamble he then issued a further statement around a week later clarifying that his intent was ONLY to run Denman if his gold cup campaign went awry.
I think Mr Nicholls was highly irresponsible initiating a market fever just to backtrack days later. Most irritating of all is the fact something DID go awry with Denmans gold cup campaign, he galloped to a bloodless second place at Cheltenham and yet STILL his participation from the GN is withdrawn – and has been for some time.
Quite clearly Denman would not run at Aintree unless something happened that would result in him still not running. Thats what the market assumed his entry would amount to back in 2008 until the idiot stepped up and made the bookies millions.
At least i assume it was the bookies who profited…
It wasn’t millions. I gain the impression that most of the ante-post odds quoted by bookies are mainly for PR and publicity.
There was quite a lot traded on Denman in the autumn anyway for the Grand National, so an extra bit didn’t make much difference.
What ever happened to the plans for the Grande Steeplechase de Paris?
We could have then used Bogie’s line "we’ll always have Paris."
Connections say that there is a slight possibility that he may run again this season; I’d imagine that it would be better for him to be kept ticking over [no pun intended] rather than getting fat in a field, and then having to get the weight off again next Autumn..I’m still convinced that it was his lass coming back to look after him that turned the corner with the horse, and Paul Barber says the same.
If, say, 9st 12lbs is the cut off point in the race, what determines which horse carrying that weight gets into the race; there are quite a few with 9st 12lbs, Character Building being one of them. I keep looking at the list and think it’s down to Fleet Street or thereabouts at the moment.
They go on the current rating of the horses concerned Moehat- so Brooklyn Brownieand Character Building have done themselves a favour by winning the other day and will surely be top of the list of the 9-12 brigade.
If you back a horse ante post and it gets balloted out rather than withdrawn do you get your stake money back?
Yes- a list of balloted out horses is usually printed in the Post and stakes should be returned.
I reckon Cloudy Lane will end up top weight and the weights will rise by 10lbs. The 11st mark will then be at Parson’s Legacy, if he runs.It wasn’t millions. I gain the impression that most of the ante-post odds quoted by bookies are mainly for PR and publicity.
There was quite a lot traded on Denman in the autumn anyway for the Grand National, so an extra bit didn’t make much difference.
What ever happened to the plans for the Grande Steeplechase de Paris?
We could have then used Bogie’s line "we’ll always have Paris."
They seem to be thinking twice about putting him out to grass and it wouldn’t surprise me if the french race is the reason. Mega prize money if I remember correctly.
definate horses scratched from national – notre pere, imperial commander, snoopy loopy, miko de beauchene, and simon
horses with alternative targets – exotic dancer (betfair bowl), madison du berlais, and star de mohaison
It’s beginning to take shape now, isn’t it. Think it’s time to take a risk with Kilbeggan Blade, Brooklyn Brownie and Rambling Minster
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Didn’t take long for the Exotic Dancer dream to be quashed, I’m quite glad myself because it just means the weights will rise that bit more, just need War of Attrition not to bother either to make all mine in nicely but one or two decent rivals over the 11st mark.
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