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Most of the National winners mentioned above had been campaigned a bit at a competitive level outside novice company. Miinnehoma and Royal Athlete for instance had run in the Gold Cup, Lord Gyllene had some strong form in valuable long-distance handicap chases and Numbersixvalverde had already won a Thyestes and an Irish National.
I think that horses also need a certain amount of mental maturity as well as physical to run well.
So Kifill,
Big Fella Thanks winning a valuable Donny H’cap and coming fourth(?) in the Racing Post Chase would count as sufficient experience?
Sometimes it is easy to get trapped behind the word ‘statistic’ when it comes to evaluating available information. Let me give you an example – BFT runs well and looks classy when winning a handicap. He looks like a big stamina laden type with lots of class and is trained by champion trainer PN who rates him highly.
Now, all the reasons you like this horse are based on precidents set by previous winning types of this race, ie you look for a high cruising speed, a touch of class and improving ability, large stamina type horse with distance trip pedigree. These are all traits that you are looking for based on previous successful horses. A horses age and number of chase runs are considered in the same way when making a selection. Dont consider the ‘stats’ to be just numbers written down about a horses profile, they are just as much his pedigree, size, improvement and carriage.I am not old enough to really remember Maori Venture so can’t comment on him, and bad jumpers have won the National in recent years, but none of them have been novices or 7 years old. I’m not sure the Great Yorkshire was anything other than an average race this time round, it just happened to have a big pot and ultimately you’d like to be on a horse that has more than 2 good pieces of form in its locker going into a National. Not sure how many chase runs most winners have, but my guess its more than BFT has had.
On Get On (ATR) when talking about Hear the Echo, Mouse Morris gave every indication of not knowing what he was talking about when it comes to handicap marks. The British and Irish handicaps are two different scales, as Lydia Hislop said it’s similar to Centigrade and Farrenhight. He is not comparing like with like. Irish horses have to be re-handicapped to the British scale. Otherwise every Irish runner would be well handicapped.
Mr.Morris should learn about the difference.
Mark
Value Is EverythingTHE FOLLOWING 17 HORSES HAVE BEEN OFFICIALLY SCRATCHED BY THEIR TRAINERS:
AIR FORCE ONE (GER), CANE BRAKE (IRE), GWANAKO (FR), ABBEYBRANEY (IRE), ENDLESS POWER (IRE), TRABOLGAN (IRE), OEDIPE (FR), D’ARGENT (IRE), HOMER WELLS (IRE), GALLANT APPROACH (IRE), SEA DIVA (IRE), EMMA JANE (IRE), BALLYTRIM (IRE), ROYAL ROSA (FR), DENMAN (IRE), JOE LIVELY (IRE), LEADING ATTRACTION (IRE)
On Get On (ATR) when talking about Hear the Echo, Mouse Morris gave every indication of not knowing what he was talking about when it comes to handicap marks. The British and Irish handicaps are two different scales, as Lydia Hislop said it’s similar to Centigrade and Farrenhight. He is not comparing like with like. Irish horses have to be re-handicapped to the British scale. Otherwise every Irish runner would be well handicapped.
Mr.Morris should learn about the difference.
Mark, in fairness to Mouse I think he’s just shocked that an Irish National winner off bottom weight is only going to be in receipt of 4lbs from a former Gold Cup winner who has been placed in two Grade 1s this season. War Of Attrition is has a chase rating of 163 in Ireland and Hear The Echo is rated 145 yet the British handicapper has only 4lbs between them. Many people within Irish racing are of the opinion that this is very insulting to Noel O’Brien.
IC,
Doubt whether any handicapper will allow one of Mr. Morris’s horses to get in as well again. Judging Hear The Echo’s best form against War Of Attrition’s best form is strange. WOA is on the downgrade, so it is quite right that his mark should be dropped. Though probably has been dropped too far and is quite well handicapped on his 3rd to Noland in the John Durkan. However, to judge a horse only on one other horse is crazy. I wonder if he’d be so miffed if it was Hear The Echo’s who was the one “well in”. Would he complain if WOA was badly handicapped against his stable companion?
This was how the Irish National finished.
1st Hear The Echo 10st 0lbs, Now rated 153 by BHA handicapper.
2nd Royal County Star 10st 4lbs, (beaten easily by 12 lengths) Now rated 140 by BHA.
3rd Notre Pere 10st 7lbs, (beaten by total 16 lengths) Rated BHA 160 in Grand National .
4th A New Story 9st 9lbs, 5lb claimer ridden (beaten easily by 26 lengths) Now BHA 124.
5th Newbay Prop 10st 0lbs, (beaten easily by 27lengths) Now BHA mark of 128.Compared to the four horses he beat, I would not say Hear The Echo is particularly poorly handicapped. If he runs on the day, at current prices I will be backing him.
It may well be that he has been upped in the ratings because Notre Pere franking the form. Something that is (I believe) new this year for British ratings is the Handicapper’s ability to put up a horse’s rating over fences, if he has improved over hurdles. The close up 6th in a handicap on 27th Dec was his best hurdles run. Therefore, it is probable he is capable of improvement over fences, hence the rise in the weights.
What is the point of running a horse over hurdles when he is capable of better form over fences? Answer: In an attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of a handicapper. It seems as if Mr. Morris has been successful with the Irish handicapper but not Phil Smith. Hear The Echo’s trainer may well be cross because he realises the folly of wasting time running over hurdles. It has back-fired, what a shame. Hopefully this will put trainers off running staying chasers over hurdles.
May be Mouse Morris should complain to the Irish Handicapper that he has not rated Hear The Echo enough. And complain to Phil Smith War Of Attrition is rated too low. But that won’t happen will it?
Why is it insulting to Noel O’Brien?
Mark
Value Is EverythingMark,
I agree with your point regarding the folly of running Hear The Echo over hurdles this season. Although the likes of Numbersixvalverde have taken advantage of this route in the past, the British handicapper did make it clear that this year he wouldn’t be lenient on horses who would race over hurdles in order to protect their chase mark.
But why then is Snowy Morning going to be running off an 11lb higher mark than last year? He’s been raced exclusively over fences this season and his form has been particularly uninspiring. Willie has come out this week and said that he’s unlikely to have any runners in the Cheltenham handicaps given that he’s "not a fan of the British handicapper".
I am aware that there are two different scales but the problem with Irish horses in British handicaps is that there appears to be no consistency. Some horses are given 20lbs on top of their Irish mark whereas others are only given 3 or 4lbs. I think this is what is quite insulting to Noel O’Brien in that his ratings seem to be completely disregarded by the British handicapper.
Mark,
I agree with your point regarding the folly of running Hear The Echo over hurdles this season. Although the likes of Numbersixvalverde have taken advantage of this route in the past, the British handicapper did make it clear that this year he wouldn’t be lenient on horses who would race over hurdles in order to protect their chase mark.
But why then is Snowy Morning going to be running off an 11lb higher mark than last year? He’s been raced exclusively over fences this season and his form has been particularly uninspiring. Willie has come out this week and said that he’s unlikely to have any runners in the Cheltenham handicaps given that he’s "not a fan of the British handicapper".
Snowy Morning has been trained solely with the Grand National in mind
he will leave this seasons form behind as soon as he jumps the 1st fence
at Aintree, he doesn"t know he"s been raised 11lbs from last years fantastic effort!Don`t know whether i`m going off at a bit of a tangent here but the majority of winning and placed horses are battle hardened chasers ,ie they`ve run in big fields and have proved themselves worthy in the huly burly of big handicaps.
Look back and you will see that most grand national finishers are made of sterner stuff and are not in general lightly raced types.( as in running a few times in small fields)
Mark,
I agree with your point regarding the folly of running Hear The Echo over hurdles this season. Although the likes of Numbersixvalverde have taken advantage of this route in the past, the British handicapper did make it clear that this year he wouldn’t be lenient on horses who would race over hurdles in order to protect their chase mark.
But why then is Snowy Morning going to be running off an 11lb higher mark than last year? He’s been raced exclusively over fences this season and his form has been particularly uninspiring. Willie has come out this week and said that he’s unlikely to have any runners in the Cheltenham handicaps given that he’s "not a fan of the British handicapper".
I am aware that there are two different scales but the problem with Irish horses in British handicaps is that there appears to be no consistency. Some horses are given 20lbs on top of their Irish mark whereas others are only given 3 or 4lbs. I think this is what is quite insulting to Noel O’Brien in that his ratings seem to be completely disregarded by the British handicapper.
IC,
I do think Phil Smith is sometimes guilty of dropping horses too much if they are not in form (Simon) or on the downgrade (War Of Attrition). May be if Noel O’Brien does not do this, could be one reason why some horses are put up at different rates.
Snowy Morning went on to be beaten only 7 lengths by Neptunes Collonges in the Punchestown Gold Cup. If anything improving on his Aintree effort. If Neptunes Collonges was put in the Grand National at around 11st 5lbs to 11st 7lbs, he’d be described as "well in". Snowy also has good Aintree experience which adds a few pounds. Haven’t all the first three last year been put up a similar amount (to the result). That seems fair enough, Comply Or Die has been in awful form so far this season, worse than Snowy. I’d say Snowy Morning is amongst the best handicapped horses in the race. How does his current Irish rating compare?
If Willie Mullins truly believes Irish horses have been poorly treated in handicaps, may be he should look at their record in the recent past. It just does not make sense.
Does Mr. Mullins realise Irish and British handicaps are different scales? The Irish handicaps are done to a lower scale, so the Irish handicapper should look at all British runners to see if they deserve a lower Irish rating than their British rating. But he does not, Noel O’Brien just uses the British rating (without changing it). If Noel does not realise the two handicaps are on different scales then what hope is there for Irish trainers? That is an insult Noel O’Brien gives to every British runner.
I don’t think all this complaining is anything to do with mind games. The "if I complain about ratings may be I will get better ratings in the future", way of thinking. But it does make you wonder.
I wish there was a universal rating but can’t see any way this can happen at the moment.
Mark
Value Is EverythingYou make a lot of valid points Mark and I agree with you that there should be some sort of universal scale but I too cannot see this happening. I think it was David Brady who suggested in another thread (correct me if I’m wrong David) that the fairest situation would be if there was come sort of a standard rise for Irish runners in British handicaps. This could be reversed with a standard drop for British horses crossing the Irish Sea.
I think some sort of system like that would be welcomed by trainers and punters alike. If every Irish runner in a British handicap was given an increase of say for argument’s sake, 8lbs on top of their Irish rating, it would eliminate the inconsistent handicapping of Irish horses where some runners are left run off close to their Irish mark and others are given a huge hike.
Even some sort of universal rise like this may not be ideal but at least everyone would know where they stand.
It is interesting that right now, of Timeform’s top five rated horses entered in the Grand National, three are Irish trained.
Would be wrong of me to say what those 5 are.
Mark
Value Is EverythingLet’s hope connections of Irish Invader elect to run him at Aintree after today’s Thurles win – it is getting harder to pick the National winner as each year passes, so it is a relief when horses that have absolutely no chance of staying line up and can be easily discounted.
So Kifill,
Big Fella Thanks winning a valuable Donny H’cap and coming fourth(?) in the Racing Post Chase would count as sufficient experience?
I would not back the beast at his current price. One quality I am looking for in a National winner is a proven ability to jump competently and run to rating in races run at a strong pace in large fields. Clearly he has a fair bit of ability but he will have learned little about jumping at speed in large fields when winning a ridiculously uncompetitive race at Doncaster where a third of the intended field were non-runners. I have yet to actually watch the Kempton race, so won’t pass comment.
That said, experience per se is not necessarily going to help a horse jump round Aintree. D’Argent last year would be a case in point, not looking comfortable at many of the fences.
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