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Story in the Sporting Life this morning saying that Denman is unlikely to run in the National unless he falls early in the Gold Cup (or if anything untoward happens and he doesn’t get to Cheltenham!).
Colin
I wouldn’t like to see him run in the GN. If he had to, Walsh has to ride him or if he goes for something else(?), Geraghty. I hope he doesn’t run though.
Pn has came out and said that it’s improbable that Denman will run in the national if he has a tough Gold Cup. In other words he will only run in the GN if he falls i the GC.
At least he came out and said it. Hopefully enough people read it and cool down with the ante posts. It’s decent of him to keep us updated i’d say.
Pn has came out and said that it’s improbable that Denman will run in the national if he has a tough Gold Cup. In other words he will only run in the GN if he falls i the GC.
At least he came out and said it. Hopefully enough people read it and cool down with the ante posts. It’s decent of him to keep us updated i’d say.
That isn’t quite how I interpret what he said to mean, but does more or less echo what I said earlier in the thread. However IMO there was no need for him to have made the comments he made last week which is all some people need to start lumping on a horse when the reality was he was always going to be an unlikely runner, so for many the damage is already done.
How do you interpret what he said the M Stan ?
A run in the John Smith’s Grand National seems unlikely for Denman unless something goes wrong in his pursuit of back-to-back Cheltenham Gold Cups.
The nine-year-old has not been seen in racecourse action since winning National Hunt’s blue riband last March after suffering from a fibrillating heart, but is on course for a return, possibly in the Aon Chase at Newbury on February 7.
Recent reports have suggested a start in April’s Aintree spectacular is high on champion trainer Paul Nicholls’ agenda, but he admits a defence of his Gold Cup crown remains Denman’s number one priority.
"We’ve entered Denman for the Grand National but that is as far as it has got at this stage," Nicholls told Teletext.
"If he has a hard race in the Gold Cup like last year that would make it improbable but if something went wrong or he fell at the first, we’d kick ourselves if he wasn’t entered.
"It will be some time before a final decision is made so any speculation otherwise before then is exactly that."
You’re saying it will only run if it falls at Cheltenham, but were it tyo come up faster than ideal or he missed the race for whatever reason he could still run. The point is, there is no ante post value because a run is unlikey all things going well and the race is not his actual; target which is a worry.
PN is babbling rubbish to keep them of his back. Can hear him now if Kauto Star beats him in the GC "Denman is looking great after his defeat in the Gold Cup" "He’s so well in himself we have to go for it as he might never get a chance like this again" or some BS pretty near to it.
Last week he was warming to the chance now he’ll run if only!!! Bla! Bula Bula Bla!…..PN at his best
The bookies were really impressed by this story. Especially William Hill who cut him from 8’s to 7’s
Is it possible to have an ‘easy’ race in the Gold Cup? surely going down in a fight with Kauto Star is going to be harder on him than winning it?
If you had backed Denman for the national at this stage, then you would only have yourself to blame. I havent seen anything that suggested it was a definate target and the GC is clearly going to be the number one priortity (which obviously wouldnt be the case for most National ante post prospects).
Kauto is 11/4 for the GC. Not bad for the best all round chaser we have seen in years and also given the continuing uncertainty surrounding his opponents
Ground is important. You’d have to hope the ground suits whoever you back. People talk alot about ante post without mentioning conidtions.
He did say the only easy run in the GC is to fall early. I wonder if they will run Denman in the following years national instead. It will will be good to see him on Feb 7th.
Ok, ok, ok, ok. Then let us say Denman will not run and therefore the likes of Halcon Genelardais, Exotic Dancer, Notre Pere, The Listener etc. don’t go either and Comply Or Die, Miko, My Will and Hear The Echo are all carrying 11st+.
Then who are your long range fancies?
I’ve been thinking that the horses that disappointed in the Welsh National are big prices – Mon Mome 70 and Joe Lively 80, considering they will almost certainly run.
Surely Mon Mome’s performance can be dismissed as it was only 15 days since the previous race. A few days after the Cheltenham race Venetia said Mon Mome was well and would run at Chepstow, but it can’t really be 100% can it?
With all the Denman hoohaa Black Apalachi has gone out to 32 for small amounts.
Trabolgan 350 isn’t so ridiculous an idea because it is Hemmings owned.
Nozic 90 put in a terrific round of jumping at Wetherby, in his first attempt at 3m+.
Finally, your own Vic Venturi is available at 140, and is entered for Leopardstown on Sunday. That can’t be a good idea, can it, with the weights to be announced in a month’s time?
edit: I have invested another £2 of my hard-earned money on Ponmeoath, and knocked him in from 420 to 300. I am getting a little worried about Church Island – he needs to win a race before the weights come out, rather than afterwards, because I don’t think a penalty would be enough to get him into the field.If Denman doesn’t go then my take on some of the leading fancies that will remain are thus.
HEAR THE ECHO: Will not stay 4m 4f. The influence of Strong Gale in his pedigree is a really massive no, no when it comes to Aintree. The multi champion NH sire of yore never produced a worthwhile stayer, even in his pomp, over four miles. Strong Gale as a sire himself did have an Irish National winner but never did he produce a winner or even a placed horse at Aintree. Phil Smith will add on a few more pounds than his Irish equivilent no doubt and you have a very badly handicapped horse for the ultimate test.
HIMALAYAN TRAIL: The "plot" horse but no more so than Hear The Echo. Up 17lbs since winning the Midlands and with a trainer "who knows how to win a National". However, that was with a very good horse. Had a sighter over the big ones in November, didn’t come close as one would suspect with a "plot" horse so his mark would come down ever so slightly and will probably be campaigned over hurdles from hereon in (Unless Denman does go and then they might actually have to try and get him up another 1lb or 2lb). Just doesn’t have the class to win.
SNOWY MORNING: Much like Red Marauder in 2001 Snowy Morning unbelievably got round Aintree. Currently rated 12lbs higher than last year’s race it seems even more remote that he can win this year and his old flaws have resurfaced. Interesting pedigree – related to Him Of Praise – but he should be at least double the price he is.
BLACK APALACHI: The handicapper will crucify him for his Beecher success. He is this year’s Mr Pointment. I expect his current mark of 146 to at least go up a couple of lbs come the release of the weights. He is highly tried over distances in excess of 3m 4f+ and has never got his head in front running off much more favourable marks. It will be a massive leap of faith to think he can do it over 4m 4f off something between 148-154.
I’m pricing up Halcon, Cloudy Lane, Chelsea Harbour, Slim Pickings and Mon Mome [glad his price has gone out!]…just can’t see them running Black Apalachi unless it comes up really soft..think Joe Lively is a bit on the small side [but then so is Mon Mome] can’t see Comply or Die running his heart out again….Garde Champetre is interesting.
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