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GW, you astonish me. I’d have thought you’d have gone Alberta’s Run for the double.
Gerald,
"Albertas run" would make a fine "National" horse, he would defineately stay the trip! He wont be entered for the 09 because he still has
"Gold Cup" potential! He"s more of a staying chaser than "Exotic" who has
Gears but could just cruise his way round Aintree! He has jumped 209 fences safely since falling in a Novice ch at Sandown 3yrs ago!!!!He will win the National if he runs, sod this handicap nonense, lets see him on level weights over the aintree course and distance.
He runs and jumps with lethal efiecancy which marks him out as a prince amiong chasers, If sam gets him into a rythm his price in running will plummet.
If in the unlikely event Denman did run in next year’s race then I would be piling into Halcon who would be an absolute shoe in given that practically everything else bar Denman and perhaps one or two other surprise entries would be out of the handicap.
IF he runs, then everyone has to make ED part of their book don’t they.
I know I’ve made some spectacularly stupid bets in the past month, (especially a month ago,) but I wouldn’t have the gall to bet ED, until probably after the second confirmation (St Paddy’s Day). 85 just isn’t a big enough price.
Surely one wants a horse that has had the GN as the main aim all season, and not just as an after-thought. (Probably contradicting what I wrote in the first paragraph.)
Was just thinking about Halcon after seeing the Welsh National; hadn’t realized what a fine stamp of a horse he is, but Alan King isn’t too keen on the National for his horses is he? However, if Denman did run the wight advantage would be far too good to miss next year.
Tell me more about this. I’ve come across a few quotes where King has mentioned the National. I thought it was his owners who weren’t keen???
Gerald,After my fine bit of encouragement in suggesting "Exotic Dancer" for the National, you say 85 is not big enough! what price would you want on a horse that has finished 2nd in a Gold cup?
Exotic Dancer is much more likely to turn up in the Melling or the Bowl at Aintree, hence why he’s 85. Then he’d have to turn up and lug top weight round a distance he doesn’t look equipped to stay; on a course he doesn’t look big enough to jump.
85 is stingy.
Just an impression I’d got over the years…think he always thought that it wouldn’t suit D’Argent [my main bet this year] and he was right!
King doesn’t seem to like the National, that’s a fact. D’argent was two years too late in taking his chance. I sent King an email two to three years ago about sending D’argent to Aintree and he quite candidly replied saying that you need a special type of horse and generally speaking he didn’t have such horses in his yard, which I thought was fair enough but why change your mind all of sudden when your horse is 11 as they did with D’Argent? Halcon does look tailor made though but needs one of the big boys to go for it too if connections are going to seriously consider it.
Personally I’d go for Aintree rather than the GC in any case this year. Finishing 4th at Aintree is financially superior than finishing 4th at Cheltenham.
Interesting to see "Denman" become 16/1 fav on the machine! he was 36
a couple of days ago!I’d be interested in Cornish Sett, he ran a good race in the Welsh National and while he only finished 12th last year at Aintree he has had a wind operation since and has improved for it. None of the bookies seem to be offering prices on him though, not sure why.
Black Apalachi would be another of interest it was bittersweet for me when he won at Aintree in November, I’d backed him in an Irish National a few years bacj and last years Grand National as I believed he had it in him to win a big staying chase, unfortunately my faith didn’t stretch to his winning run LTO. I think soft ground might be the key to him, it might have been the speed they were travelling that caused him to cartwheel the 2nd in last years race.Hi
Betfair introduced Cornish Sett to their market after the Welsh GN. Bits at 80 and 85
By the way, Betfair have just opened a Place market for the GN, but it doesn’t seem to have been visited by many people yet. The place market is still rudimentary.
It says on SL that Denman has been entered. Needless to say odds have fallen sharply, and those who took some ante post will be pleased with themselves.
Taken from sporting life :-
Denman will be entered in this year’s John Smith’s Grand National according to trainer Paul Nicholls.
Part-owner Harry Findlay has made no secret of his desire to see his Cheltenham Gold Cup winner tackle Aintree’s unique fences, and it seems he may get his wish this year after all.
Writing in his Racing Post column Nicholls said: "I’ve been asked several times in the last couple of days whether Denman will get an entry in the Grand National, and I can put an end to the speculation by saying he will be entered.
"I’m coming round to the idea of running him. The more I’ve thought about it the more it makes sense while Denman is in his prime.
"Phil Smith has offered a carrot by reducing the top weight in the National from 11st 12lb to 11st 10lb, and who’s to say he won’t offer us another inducement when he frames the handicap.
"As Denman is rated 182, the Grand National handicap is going to look very interesting."
Not surprisingly plenty of punters have latched onto those comments and Denman’s Grand National price has since collapsed.
Plenty of 16s was available but Denman is now as short as 7/1 favourite with totesport and no bigger than 10/1.
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Oh, my £2 at 75 doesn’t look so stupid now.
Pity about my bets on Such-and-Such and Such-and-Such though.
Interesting to see "Denman" become 16/1 fav on the machine! he was 36
a couple of days ago!If you didn’t take it I would grab the 12/1 EW right now with Paddy Power if you can get on.Appatantly PN is warming to the idea
Being a Kauto Star fan I still think he can beat Denman in the Gold Cup/ As said earlier if he does I don’t thnk PN will hesytate to run the big horse in the National if he comes out of the Gold Cup . The way he won the Hennessy bad race or not it will take some horse to stay with him round Aintree.
My one worry apart from the fact he may not run him is will he stay?. The fact he was out on his feet at the end of the Gold Cup bugs me a little.The thing that swings me is Aintree is similar to Newbury in the sense it’s flat and he looked like he could have gone round again at Newbury.
Hopefully the combination of the undualtions and the ground being like a glue pot in the Gold Cup was probably the reason he looked exhausted rather than any stamina doubts.
In for a penny in for a pound as they say at 12/1 he looks a great bet even if you lay him off when he starts 5/2 fav,
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