2000 Guineas discussion

New Approach is the one to beat on 2yo form, and he looks like hes bred for about 1m2f, which is good in the guineas as many guineas winners are 1m2f types, Haafhd, Refuse To Bend, Shamardal, Azamour,. May be tapped for toe on firmer ground at 1 mile. Antepost favorites have a terrible record in the 2000 guineas and I would have to oppose him if the ground is gd-fm.

Think Ravens Pass is definitely in the mix if the ground is faster, he is bred for faster conditions and was empatic on such conditions last summer, and impressive enough in defeat on worse ground in the dewhurst, very much a serious condender.

Ibn Khaldun was impressive when winning the racing post trophy, and although his sire is in his first crop, he looked to have had some some decent 2yos between 6-7fs, could be a guineas horse but I find him hard to place distancewise, current betting suggests he’s come on well and fancied.

Fast Company is by danehill dancer, who usually come to the fore at about this time of year when there is a bit of cut in the ground (speciosa, indesatchel, decado have all come good in recent seasons at roundabout guineas time when training with cut). Fast Company is currently working in dubai where I would expect the ground is gd-fm but he should have improvement in him when getting onto good ground. Godolphin have a tendency to bring their horses back from dubai to newmarket the week before the guineas, and have also had a tendency to ruin horses in dubai, but think FC is a live contender on everything he has done so far, my presonal favorite of the 2yos last year.

Jupiter Pluvius is by Johnnesburg who had three smart first crop prospects at the same time last year in Hamoody, Diamond Tycoon and Scat Daddy, none of whom really produced the goods, but they and he showed some hints of real class and I wouldn’t be ruling him out, if O’brien runs him before the guineas then he’s already beaten, as O’brien doesn’t tend to run his main 2000 prospects before Newmarket, and I would see a pre-race entry would as good as a statement that he hasn’t trained on.

Myboycharlie is by Danetime and Winker Watson is by Piccollo, both are from the same dam-sire and both look like out and out sprinters, indeed Myboycharlie was outstayed at 7f on gd-fm. Think both are well bred for sprinting and could be smart sprinters this term though.

Rio De La Plata is destined for the french guineas, and he wouldn’t be the first smart horse godolphin have sent there

On the most likely ground of gd-fm it has to be Ravens Pass, with good reports beforehand and with good ground it would be Fast Comapny for me, soft or possibly gd-sft ground it would be New Approach. A possible good all rounder for an e/w would be Ibn Khaldun.

I’m surprised there are so many people who want to take New Approach on to be honest. The excuses for beaten horse in the Dewhurst aren’t really that strong.

Ravens Pass is said to want faster ground but his Dewhurst run was at least the equal of any of his previous considering it was the strongest field he had tackled. There certainly doesn’t seem to be any excuse for Fast Company who ran a blinder in the Dewhurst. Ravens Pass ran well for a while then found nothing. Ok he may find more on a fast surface but if he were much better than what he showed at Newmarket he would’ve finished a bit closer IMO it was disappointing the way he found nothing. The ground wasn’t that soft, maybe its just as good as he is?

I can’t see anything else from the Dewhurst being a threat to the favourite, maybe Rio De La Plata who clearly didn’t run to his peak in the Dewhurst we know that from his previous form but even then he’s twice taken on New Approach and twice he’s been beaten.

Dark horses? There aren’t many that make appeal. Twice Over will probably miss the race and be targetted at the Derby, Ibn Khaldoun might not run as Godolphin now own half of the field (at least it seems like that) – if he did run maybe he would be the one to trouble the favourite?

Jupiter Pluvius people are attatching to because he’s Aiden O’Briens and none of O’Briens 2yo’s seemed anything special. On his 2yo form he’s got a helluva lot to find.

I think New Approach is the obvious choice but he’s not so far ahead of the field on form to make him a good bet IMO. He is only a pound or two better than Fast Company on Dewhurst form for example and Ibn Khaldun’s Racing post form isn’t far behind either. However he has an extra furlong in the Guineas and that will only help him, he will surely improve for that.

He’d be the choice for me at the moment.

I generally try to stay clear of mr prospectors colts as many can be inconsistent, but some smart ones aren’t (dubai millenium, dubawi, and his many top dirt performers) Ravens Pass didn’t look like that sort of horse last year. I will also generally oppose them with cut in the ground, and will expect them to be better suited to firm ground or dirt, but there are no set rules.

Ravens Pass wasn’t really able to accelerate in the dewhurst ground last year, but he looked to put in a decent run, lets face it he was 3rd. I dont think it was the case that he handled the ground but didnt stay, I would say that is the case with luck money, but ravens pass just didnt handle it aswell as the first two who were bred to thrive on those conditions. Ravens Pass has already seen money of late and as Newmarket starts to come up good to firm in april I think Ravens Pass will start to put in some serious pieces galloping work and his price will shorten considerably further.

I dont think Fast Company really ran an overall blinder in the dewhurst, he made plenty of mistakes but finished like a star and he certainly looks to have improvement on that.

I agree that there is very little to knock about New Approaches form, indeed I was extremely impressed that he beat rio de la plata on gd-fm at 7f last season, but he is much shorter than I could consider and I just think that he could be tapped for toe in the guineas, indeed he almost was in the dewhurst on ground that was more in his favour than the guineas is likely to be.

As for this weeks hot horse Ibn Khaldun. On trends, I’d rather back him for the Derby (though being by Gossamer, (a half sister to Barathea, he’s certainly bred to win a Guineas – or a Breeders Cup Mile!).

Yet, I’m struggling to find many horses since 1989 who have raced over that Racing Post Trophy mile trip as a juvenile and then excelled in the mile classics as a three year old.

Are the Boys in Blue clutching at straws here?

As for the Autumn Stakes. My! There’s been some anonymous runners in this race over the years – Epic Express anyone – but at least one winner won the Guineas, the great Nashwan in 1989 and a couple of other runners turned out to be quality animals over further, (Presenting, Daliapour and the very useful Nayef).

And I’m sure on the other thread, someone said that it is more likely for a stray comet to collide with us than a nursery victor to win the Guineas. Certainly no winner in the last twenty years has even run in a handicap as a two year old, never mind won one. An unlikely winner in my opinion.

Everytyhing about Ibn Khaldun points to him being a miler. I don’t care what the trends say. The majority of Racing Post winners have been won by horses with middle distance pedigrees. You only have to go back to American Post who won the RP Trophy and also proced best around 1m.

Apparently Fast Company hasn’t being setting the gallops alight for his new owners.

New Approach for me at this stage – unless circumstances change or something special emerges from the pack.

Ibn Khaldun is a cast iron cert. Or as close as you can get in the flat game.