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With EMINENT now declared to run in the 2000 Guineas I’m getting really excited about his chances.
Can’t believe he will go straight to the big race without a run so hope he turns out at the Craven meeting for a prep race over the distance.
There’s something about this horse that just grabbed my imagination and hoping he has wintered well and grown into his frame…cant wait to see him again..
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Eminent was a very nice winner on his debut but the race doesn’t look strong, despite 4 winners coming out of it. Those horses look exposed at a level well below what you would be hoping for, they have also been plying their trade beyond a mile.
Looking at Eminent and how he performed over 1 mile at 2yo, I would say 10F plus and The Derby might be a more suitable target. He does look one to improve a good bit this year and looked the clear pick as the one to follow from the maiden he won comfortably. I like the way he does his business.
I was pleased to see Utmost entered for John Gosden and George Strawbridge, he looks a smart prospect and I feel he may have a bit more toe than some the other lightly raced dark sorts I have been looking at over the winter. He obviously needs major improvement but I hope to see him in a Guineas trial.
Somewhat coincidental that Eminent and Utmost were born on exactly the same day and turned 3yo physically last Saturday, 4th March.
I was with Caravaggio from day 1 last year and did him ante-post for Royal Ascot after his first race. While I was happy to back him for the Coventry, I refused to back him for the 2000 Guineas because I had grave concerns that he would train on and stay the mile. There was something about his last run that made me feel I wasn’t watching the same horse who won the Coventry.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Eminent was a very nice winner on his debut but the race doesn’t look strong, despite 4 winners coming out of it. Those horses look exposed at a level well below what you would be hoping for, they have also been plying their trade beyond a mile.
Looking at Eminent and how he performed over 1 mile at 2yo, I would say 10F plus and The Derby might be a more suitable target. He does look one to improve a good bit this year and looked the clear pick as the one to follow from the maiden he won comfortably. I like the way he does his business.
I was pleased to see Utmost entered for John Gosden and George Strawbridge, he looks a smart prospect and I feel he may have a bit more toe than some the other lightly raced dark sorts I have been looking at over the winter. He obviously needs major improvement but I hope to see him in a Guineas trial.
Somewhat coincidental that Eminent and Utmost were born on exactly the same day and turned 3yo physically last Saturday, 4th March.
I was with Caravaggio from day 1 last year and did him ante-post for Royal Ascot after his first race. While I was happy to back him for the Coventry, I refused to back him for the 2000 Guineas because I had grave concerns that he would train on and stay the mile. There was something about his last run that made me feel I wasn’t watching the same horse who won the Coventry.
Whilst I massively respect your opinion on young horses, I’m not sure I’m with you regarding Caravggio, Steve. His last run in the Phoenix Stakes doesn’t look one to be drawing too many conclusions from – he beat a weak, small field under a hands and heels ride from Heffernan. I can’t see anything that’s too troubling there.
In terms of his targets for this year I’d agree he’s unlikely to be directed at the Guineas with Churchill already there for Ballydoyle. Magnier and Co. know that both Churchill and Caravaggio have a large amount of potential value at stud and you’d imagine they will be kept apart so that value isn’t damaged by one of their own.
I feel like maybe you’re tarring Caravaggio with the same brush as Air Force Blue, which to me is unfair given he’s by a different sire and they seem to be fairly dissimilar as individuals.
I think you can only go with what you have in front of you and Caravaggio is a very dubious stayer over a mile. Surely he’s unlikely to even go for the race unless Churchill gets injured. I can see Caravaggio ending up in the July cup later in the year.
Be interesting if anything emerges over the spring to challenge the fav. He’s going to be very hard to beat given how well he was finishing his races over seven, the extra furlong massively in his favour.
As for the Frankels, I think the hype on here was getting a bit crazy at times. Calm down, calm down! He’s yet to produce something that really looks top drawer.
Eminent was a very nice winner on his debut but the race doesn’t look strong, despite 4 winners coming out of it. Those horses look exposed at a level well below what you would be hoping for, they have also been plying their trade beyond a mile.
Looking at Eminent and how he performed over 1 mile at 2yo, I would say 10F plus and The Derby might be a more suitable target. He does look one to improve a good bit this year and looked the clear pick as the one to follow from the maiden he won comfortably. I like the way he does his business.
I was pleased to see Utmost entered for John Gosden and George Strawbridge, he looks a smart prospect and I feel he may have a bit more toe than some the other lightly raced dark sorts I have been looking at over the winter. He obviously needs major improvement but I hope to see him in a Guineas trial.
Somewhat coincidental that Eminent and Utmost were born on exactly the same day and turned 3yo physically last Saturday, 4th March.
I was with Caravaggio from day 1 last year and did him ante-post for Royal Ascot after his first race. While I was happy to back him for the Coventry, I refused to back him for the 2000 Guineas because I had grave concerns that he would train on and stay the mile. There was something about his last run that made me feel I wasn’t watching the same horse who won the Coventry.
That’s why I’m waiting patiently for Eminent to come out again this season Steve but being there on the day he ran at Newmarket and the way he handled the Rowley Mile as a 2yo winning his maiden he could yet be anything and that’s what intrigues me. He was tall and leggy and looked like he had a lot of growing to do, if he turns out to be not good enough then so be it and I can’t think as far ahead as the Derby yet that’s a brave call at this stage in the season.
I’m always wanting to take on Aiden O’Brien’s horses at this time of year and usually end up regretting it, although I did go with Gleneagles in his Guineas.
Regarding Frankel producing something top draw I think Soul Stirring has to fit that bill but I guess you mean in Europe judge
I might well be wrong but my colours are well and truly pinned to Eminent to come home first or at least place in the Guineas this year and I took 40/1 on him before he was confirmed a runner so fingers crossed…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...The same spark just wasn’t there for me with Caravaggio on his last start of the season. He just didn’t pick up as he had done every other time I watched him.
Air Force Blue was a different kettle of fish. He put up a career best in The Dewhurst and I had no concerns about him at all until the day I heard they were putting blinkers on him. I had money on Air Force Blue at 12/1 and 10/1 for the Guineas but I never backed Caravaggio for the race, even though I could have had 25/1 on him just before the Coventry. I had him at 10/1 for The Norfolk and then backed him at 4/1 for the Coventry when the rumblings started that he might switch to the furlong longer race. I think it is safe to say he would have “Urinated Up” in the Norfolk had he run but half a kipper is better than none.
Long before any talk of muscle tweaks I had a feeling we wouldn’t see him again last season and that is posted somewhere on this forum. Maybe it’s just coincidence but we never saw him again. I may well be wrong but I doubt the season ended the way they originally planned it for the horse last year and it now leaves the horse to prove he is back to Coventry form this season.
Not many horses who start at 5F as early in the season as Caravaggio did go on to win the Guineas and he’s short enough for that race when you weigh the evidence up. Aiden tends not to get many pure sprinters, so that is the doubt for the Commonwealth.
I would say that if we don’t see Caravaggio by the end of May, there may be doubts about him. I made my money on him and decided to get off the train after the Coventry. Maybe he will go on to make me regret not buying the return ticket. It’s happened often enough in the past that the money train left the station with me still in the toilet pointing Percy at the porcelain. Water Loo indeed
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Had a scan through and seen the prices highlighted about churchill early last year, im jealous – he wins this.
Churchill certainly ‘should’ win this, but so should Air Force Blue last year, what makes people more confident this time round? Is Churchill bred to relish as a 3yo compared to last years flop?
Churchill certainly ‘should’ win this, but so should Air Force Blue last year, what makes people more confident this time round? Is Churchill bred to relish as a 3yo compared to last years flop?
Air force blue is quite the exception,his demise was pretty special in how much he regressed, would be unfair to compare churchill with him…
Im not entirely sure what i think of churchill, but im entirely sure of what i thought of all the other juveniles towards the end lf last season…. of course some of them will probably strengthen from the winter break, but churchill probably dosent need to improve any and hed still beat them
Nothings certain of course im sure someone has compelling angles as to why he wont win
Churchill certainly ‘should’ win this, but so should Air Force Blue last year, what makes people more confident this time round? Is Churchill bred to relish as a 3yo compared to last years flop?
Air force blue is quite the exception,his demise was pretty special in how much he regressed, would be unfair to compare churchill with him…
Im not entirely sure what i think of churchill, but im entirely sure of what i thought of all the other juveniles towards the end lf last season…. of course some of them will probably strengthen from the winter break, but churchill probably dosent need to improve any and hed still beat them
Nothings certain of course im sure someone has compelling angles as to why he wont win
Bit like Mullins in the Supreme this, yes Aiden has the best crop and best form on offer and should rightly have the fav, but it doesn’t prove value and you can certainly get some decent e/w shouts at around the 20/1 figure at the moment, haven’t looked through the race since the summer though so no idea what’s up there in the betting. Probably a couple of Frankels, to be honest there may be a few unraced Frankels that’ll p*ss up in a maiden and go on to be strong in the market. Or ones that have already raced and are yet to fully mature.
Churchill certainly ‘should’ win this, but so should Air Force Blue last year, what makes people more confident this time round? Is Churchill bred to relish as a 3yo compared to last years flop?
Completely different breeding Ben. Air Force Blue is a War Front, a sire who seems better with 2yo horses and there have been rumblings for a while about them training on.
Churchill is by the king of sires, Galileo and there is no such problem with them at 3yo. Churchill didn’t shape like a precocious horse last year. He has the knack of pulling out enough to win.
I am still a bit gutted that his toughest race after his debut was one where I took him on with Alexios Komnenos at 14/1 and I still feel that he gave Churchill a huge fright that day.
I don’t see much in Churchill’s first few races that really looked Guineas winning material. The Alexios Komnenos race and the one that followed it threw up no other winners and only one came from his win over Mehmas, a race that was too far and probably the end of the road for the precocious Hannon colt. However, the Dewhurst was the race where he looked the part. Rivet went on to win the Racing Post Trophy (7/1 nap for me that week :yahoo:) and Thunder Snow hosed up in his next two races.
There is a lack of opposition in this Guineas, it looks desperately weak in terms of strength in depth. Pretty much every horse who looked like they might develop into a contender from left field seemed to disappoint next time out.
Churchill is very much the one to beat here. Last year there was very little said about Air Force Blue other than Joey O’Brien stating that the horse was a monster size. That was not the case at all to my eyes on Guineas day and with the blinkers on I could smell BS all the way from Newmarket, through my TV and across the sitting room.
I’d be a lot more confident of Churchill training on and something really needs to come from the once raced maiden winners to threaten him in this Guineas. The race is notoriously hard to win with horses who probably find it coming too early in the season to suit their later start to their careers.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks for that reply Steve, packed with info! Remember hearing that stuff about War Front last year, he’s an American sire isn’t he?
Same with Mehmas and a lot of the good Hannon 2yo’s, they can be great at 2 but don’t always train on, guess that comes from the sire’s Hannon has available to him.
Problem with betting on this race now is that (having just looked at the odds) Churchill is 6/4 best priced, hard to imagine him going off shorter than 5/6 (don’t think he’ll have a prep run) and can’t really see his price getting any bigger than 7/4. Hard to back him for ‘value’ as there really won’t be much change in the price unless something comes out in a few weeks and really stamps his place in the market.Think the approach here would be just to go all in on Churchill but I’m not keen on backing heavy at those odds these days unless there’s a particularly obvious treble/accumulator on the cards.
Lancaster Bomber improved at some rate at the end of last year. Improved 16 lbs in the ratings on his Dewhurst run and probably improved a bit on his run against a very good horse at Santa Anita stepped up to a mile.
Third highest rated Juvenile in Europe behind Churchill and has been as high as 80’s on BF this Winter.Currently 50.0 and 33’s E/W
Runs next Saturday in the UAE Derby as a prep.
Possible talk of him going to America also as a word of warning.
Hugh Taylor has tipped up Swiss Storm for this race in his column this morning. Not sure what view the bookies tend to take on Hugh’s ante-post selections, but we may see a price contraction.
The big worry for me with Lancaster Bomber is twofold.
1. Like Air Force Blue, he is a War Front colt. That brings the worry about training on well from 2yo to 3yo
2. A bigger worry, is that he ran at the Breeder’s Cup. I wrote a piece last year regarding the number of European Juvenile winners at that meeting who failed to train on the following year.
Hit It A Bomb was the horse I mentioned to be wary of because of that bad trend but his supporters seemed confident he could be the first one to buck the trend but the horse did not make it to the track until August and was disappointing on all four starts thereafter.
Lancaster Bomber ran at Santa Anita on really firm ground and I don’t think these US runway like conditions is good for young horses. It’s surely not coincidence how many of these 2yo horses fail after running in the Breeders Cup late in their 1st season.
It’s a big concern for me anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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