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I know this is looking like a poor guineas, but if trumpet major troubles the judge i’ll give up the game.
If you look at his form I think you can rely on Trumpet Major not to run two good races in succession.
The same comments were made about St Nick before his Guineas. Given Camelot’s pedigree, the nagging doubt that Aidan has hard trained him with the race in mind (he regrets doing so with St Nick) and his price, he must be taken on. French Fifteen and Abtaal look like solid Group animals who are overpriced because they are trained overseas. Maybe one wont turn up but at tasty double figure prices I’m taking that chance.
Was interested in Nephrite last term but had my doubts about his pedigree. Shame he did not perform so well today, and I doubt the winner will amount to much. I am interested to see if Born to Sea has trained on as I thought he showed a lot of potential last season in his first race and then finished lame in his second which explained his defeat. Still have faith in the horse.
Greenham did little to clarify the somewhat muddied waters when an exposed type won for being race-ready on the day and Bronterre disappointed.
Have to say although his pedigree is against him and the mistakes made with ST Nic there for all to see, I am struggling to see decent opposition to Camelot especially if he make’s it a stamina test with a strong gallop.
For all I know Camelot may turn out another real hero but .. he fits the hype-horse profile, one good win and lots of whispers and the AOB ‘best blah blah blah’. I backed him a month ago just in case but really, after SYT I’m so sceptical
Bit disappointed by Nephrite today. Was my second best after Camelot for the Guineas, especially with the way he had Born To Sea beaten last year, even though the latter had excuses. Still reckon he’s worth seeing again on better ground, performance today was too bad to be true imo.
Nephrite is by a sprinter and out of a sprinter who was herself by a sprinter. Nephrite is a sprinter.
No surprise Nephrite didn’t stay 7 furlongs on stamina sapping ground today.
Value Is Everythingwas that NEPHRITE true running today?
IMO it was not it was a coolmore gamble and a NEPHRITE gallop.second string 6/1 down to 7/2
was that NEPHRITE true running today?
IMO it was not it was a coolmore gamble and a NEPHRITE gallop.second string 6/1 down to 7/2
GA,
What price was Nephrite in the morning? 1/3?Would you say Nephrite had a better or worse than 75% (1/3) chance of winning? As said, the horse had major stamina worries. The more rain that fell, the more Nephrite was going to drift. Conversely, the more chance the obvious danger (stable companion) Requisition had of winning. So Requisition was going to shorten. Wish I’d taken a look at the race this morning. The 6/1 rediculously big. Much better than a 14% chance and therefore a cracking bet. Suspect it was not only a Coolmoore gamble, but if they know how good the second string is at home, why not back Requisition at the price? It wasn’t Coolmore who set the odds. Had Nephrite been Evens and Requisition 3/1, then Nephrite would probably have been the one for money.
To be a good bet Requisition didn’t need to have a better chance than Nephrite.
Coolmoore also wanted to see whether Nephrite would go up in trip to a Guineas, or down to a possible tilt at something like the Golden Jubilee.
Your assertion GA, that the 6/1 to 7/2 was a Coolmoore coup must be taken in to context. There’s been a similar gamble on Nephrite in the last couple of days for the 2000 Guineas. Down to as low as 15/2 before today’s result. Am sure had Nephrite won people would be calling that a "Coolmore Gamble".
Value Is EverythingLooking at Nephrite’s win in the Killavullan, it is hard to say that he definitively does not stay 7f on testing going. Ignoring Born To Sea, who allegedly finished lame yet it did not to unduly affect his running, the 3rd and 4th are 98 and 97 rated horses who have since confirmed their ratings. Nephrite’s running yesterday was of a horse that blew-up in the final furlong regardless of whether his stamina gave out. His next run will hopefully answer questions about his limitations.
It would be nice to hear what Aidan thinks.We get plenty of what Joseph thinks from his daddy.
Aidan O’Brien said Nephrite will go sprinting.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
"It’s not looking likely that he will go for the Guineas now. Joseph was adamant when he came in that he is more of a sprinter." Dare I say more?
Yes, it’s hard to see past Camelot at this moment in time but at odds of 6/4, he’s far too short to be backing. There is always one horse that will surprise everybody and I’m still trying to figure out which one! Looking at his form from last year, one horse which I feel will run a very big race is Power. Won the Coventry and National Stakes in fine fashion and then was unlucky to have been caught up behind horses when finishing second to Parish Hall in the Dewhurst.
Without going nuts I’m going to lay Camelot
He doesn’t convince me he’s unbeatable.
That was a dreadful race he won at Donnie the 2nd was stuffed by one of Hannons lesser lights.
They can all look good beating nothing and if he’s the best 3yo around I’m a Dutchman.
He is bound to need further than this and although he out sped them at Doncaster he’ll find these horses more speedy than the future stayers that ran at Donnie
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