2000 Guineas 2010

Don’t forget Poteen! A June 8th foal 3rd in ’97!

Not sure why I didn’t list Snow Ridge the other day. I think perhaps I changed my trends to incorporate Sea The Stars so my stats were possibly for April 15th or later.

However, I’ll do them now. April, May and June foals; 1-9-62.

Sea The Stars obviously the only winner, while 4 of the placed were foaled on a double-figure date in April; 15th, 19th, 25th, 29th. The only winners later than March 17th were the aforementioned and Mark of Esteem, March 26th.

This Poteen must seriously have been an utter freak.

Well you’re welcome to ignore them if you wish, Andy Obviously could be difficult on a free, public forum but you can try nonetheless.

Right, been through the entries A-L outlining exactly where they fall down, so if anybody cares…

Al Zir – sire didn’t win a Group/Grade 1 over 5-8f, also Racing Post Trophy runners don’t have a great winning record

Alfred Nobel – 3 attempts to win a maiden, outside the top 3 on his final start (Dewhurst is the exception), will only be possible to win 50%+ of his races if he has 2 preps and wins both and having 2 preps is a colossal negative.

Arcano – ran in a Group race over 6f

Arry’s Orse – dosage index lower than 16.6, still a maiden as a 2yo, rated less than 100, didn’t run in a Group race as a 2yo

Atlantis Star – outside the top 3 on his final start + didn’t run in a Group race as a 2yo

Audacity of Hope – sire (Red Ransom) didn’t win a Group/Grade 1 over 5-8f

Awesome Act – sire no G1 between 5-8f, April foal, dosage index below 16.6, more than 2 attempts to win a maiden, outside the top 3 on final start

Awzaan – ran in a Group race over 6f

Beauchamp Yorker – sire no G1 between 5-8f, dosage index under 16.6 and rated less than 100 as a 2yo

Beethoven – April foal, more than 8 starts as a 2yo & no chance of winning 50% of his starts

Black Snowflake – sire no G1 between 5-8f, dosage index below 16.6, more than 2 attempts to win a race, outside top 3 on final start

Business Bay – didn’t run as a 3yo, dosage index below 16.6

Buzzword – April foal, outside top 3 on final start, ran over 6f in a Group race, won’t be able to win 50% of starts without having 2 preps

Canford Cliffs – dosage index lower than 16.6, ran in the Coventry, ran in a Group race over 6f

Cape Blanco – sire no G1 between 5-8f, April foal

Will finish tomorrow.

Thanks Zarkava, very interesting.

Zenjah, I’ve only gone back to 1995 for my stats, hence our data differs. It was nothing sinister on my part, cutting off Zafonic, Rodrigo, Nashwan, etc, just to give me a foaling date trend, I just decided to do the past 15 runnings rather than the past 10.

Spot on about Pennekamp, for some reason I had him down as a March 9th, probably a typo.

Re. Jan vs Feb. Compare the amount of January foal runners to April foal runners. There are very few of the former. 2-5-17 I make it since 1995. 24 runners compared to 1-8-42 April foals. 51 runners.

p4jos1 – Of course foaling dates are important. They determine how old a horse actually is. A 3yo foaled on January 28th is 3 years and 3 months old come the 2000 Guineas, but a 3yo foaled on April 22nd is barely 3. That’s a lot of difference for a very, very young animal.

And re. Montjeu, he hasn’t even had a Group 1 winner over a trip shorter than 10 1/2f despite half a dozen odd attempts with Motivator, Hurricane Run, Authorized, Fame And Glory, etc.

Zarkava, we’re all entitled to our opinions re foaling dates but if they were as important as you suggest, and as we know the most important stage of a racehorses racing career is its 3 year old career and if it had such a detrimental effect being a late foal, then I find it hard to believe that someone like John Magnier would pay £200,000 for SNA an april born foal. I’m not saying it doesn’t have any bearing to the horses development but in my opinion it shouldn’t affect your choice in a race, as you generally pick a horse based on current form. Obviously this will only apply if the horse has run before, e.g my point about Hearts of Fire winning the Brocklesby

Let’s be fair – how many of us thought that It never looked good for him (Steinbeck) when the lads added SNA to their betting at the lowest price of 2’s?

Regardless of SNA being an April foal or whether Monjeu is a sire of milers!

I think SNA has all the gears he needs for the 2000. Obviously, the Derby looks the more obvious classic for him to win, but he has a favourites chance in the Guineas. At the price, he can’t be backed though.
I don’t fancy the Dewhurst form at all though. Fair enough Steinbeck ran a cracker for such an inexperienced horse and consequently is open to shovel-loads of improvement this season but you’d have to wait and see more of him. Hopefully he returns with the potential he’s shown thus far

Zarkava is right that foaling dates are important and a horse born in April is probably running against horses on average 1 to 2 months older which at 3 years old is perhaps a 3% to 6% difference.

However this fact is even more pronounced at 2 years old and p4jos has a good point in that Hearts of Fire won the Brocklesby against horses maybe 2 to 3 months older and he wasn’t even 2. 3 months at that age equates to a more pronounced advantage for the older horse than Hearts Of Fire will face in the Guineas.

The Brocklesby is a far cry from the 2000 Guineas but Hearts Of Fire only really improved when he stepped up in distance to 7f and so the fact he won the first flat race of the season over possibly an inadequate 5f, and he wasn’t even 2 years old, is quite remarkable.

Looks a decent EW to me at 33/1