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Andy – It wasn’t me but ‘Euro’ – who said that O’Brien messed up in last years Guineas.
(Ready to be shot down here)
– I didn’t way back then and still don’t rate either of his runners in that – If Punjabi has been called "boring" then what about the ‘Master’ and the ‘Rip’ well he was all hype…forget about a horse with no name – a horse with no trip more like! 
I posed the question of whether anyone was worried (diff thread I know) about the trip for ‘Special Duty’ – as I backed her – Euro is confident she’ll hack-a-deemo ± but I wonder if there is another ‘Ghanaati’ in this race??
As for ‘Xtension’ – was he the one to take from the Dewhurst?
‘Fencing Master’ (like ‘Xtension’ might need further) and ‘Steinbeck’ are far less exposed…
A Galileo was beaten in a photo finish two years ago and was third last year so they should be able to win it.
New Approach was probably one of the best Galileo’s there’ll ever be, so if he couldn’t win it, I doubt any of his could.
And the 3rd and 4th were pretty much pummelled by the front 2 last year.
New Approach was probably one of the best Galileo’s there’ll ever be, so if he couldn’t win it, I doubt any of his could.
I think a Galileo could certainly win the guineas, even though New Approach couldn’t. New Approach just ran into a horse that was better over the mile than he was. But at least 2 3yos have won decent G1s over a mile (RVW, Lush Lashes) and Teofilo was a deserved winter favourite for the Guineas before his injury. It just depends what genes are passed down, and if there is quality in the genes (which there frequently is with Galileo), then the offspring could win over a range of distances at G1-level.
I went through the entries the other day applying the major trends.
What excluded Arcano? Something related to not getting the distance because of Oasis Dream? I reckon he is really a contender.
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He’s a bit of a tuffy to work out is Arcano.
Hughsie reckons Canford Cliffs wasn’t right but he also beat Special Duty who absolutely trounced them in the Cheveley Park.
To confuse the issue further Arcano beat Showcasing on hist first run then beat Orpen Grey by 3/4 length, then Showcasing absolutely trounced Opren Grey by 5 lengths.
Then to top it all along comes the Mark Johnson trained Aswaan and stuffs Showcasing.
There’s a form line in there somewhere but I’m damned if I can work out which of the two Arcano or Aswaan is the better prospect.
It would seem to slightly favour Aswaan but the betting indicates Arcano.
One things for sure they’re a very good crop of 2 year olds and share one thing in common, they’re all very fast over 6f but whether they will stay a mile is another matter.
If Canford Cliffs, Aswaan and Arcano all get the trip the St Nick will have to be one helluva fast horse to beat them. As good as he looks and and good as I/we think he is he could easily be taking off his feet in which could be a very very fast run race.
New Approach was beaten a short head. Does that mean Galileos don’t get the mile or are slow or what? If they can win all the best two year old races how are they not suitable to win over a mile at three? Or what are we saying exactly about Galileos?
If I may add to my last observation. Surely the strength of the field will determin whether a certain horse will win the Guineas or not. One horse less and New Approach would have won the Guineas.The year El Gran Senor won the Guineas there were at least three wonderful milers in the race who were fast enough to win the Guineas any other year in my opinion.
Arcano’s run in a Group race over 6 furlongs. Such horses over the past 15 runs (bar AOB runners) are 0-5-57. Mujahid 3rd in 99, Barathea Guest 3rd in 00, Redback 3rd in 02, Zafeen 2nd in 03 and Dutch Art 3rd in 07, although interesting that trend only accounts for 1 losing favourite – Xaar, 4th in 98.
I went through the entries the other day applying the major trends.
Godolphin have an incredibly strong hand purely on the trends. Al Zir, Chabal, Emerald Commander, Kingsfort and Zeitoper are all in the reckoning, although realistically you’d have to say that Emerald Commander and Zeitoper aren’t good/fast enough. Chabal’s also by Galileo, not a speed-inducing enough a sire to win a Guineas.
Elusive Pimpernel, Steinbeck and Workforce are the remaining 3.
Out of the three non-sprinters that you highlighted who did you go for?
Guess you elbowed the Pimpernel having already run over a mile?
Hi All, interesting points have been made, I think if SNA runs to the racing post trophy form he will definately be placed (i don’t think he’ll win) but it is a big if, ground at newmarket will be good/good to firm, racing post trophy winners generally don’t go on to be milers at 3, also only 1 favorite has won the guineas in the last 15 years. Most of the first ten in the betting are either bred for a mile and a half or bred as sprinters. so if you look for a proper miler look at Hearts of Fire, bred by 1st season sire Firebreak who was a miler, look back in his pedegree and there’s milers. He won a Group 1 in Milan in October over a mile last year,in a good time and showed an impressive turn of foot coming from last place a good 12 lengths off the pace and at 33’s is a good bet.
p4jos1 – No chance!
I can recall watching the race on ATR and I don’t know if it was because Peslier was on board or whether it was his come from the back win – but somehow it reminded me of ‘Cockeny Rebel’!
Most of the first ten in the betting are either bred for a mile and a half or bred as sprinters.
I disagree. Steinbeck, Kingsfort, Elusive Pimpernel all look to be bred for the mile, Fencing Master/Cape Blanco/Workforce maybe a bit further, but could reasonably be expected to start the season as milers, and Arcano/Awzaan definitely have sprint influences in their immediate pedigrees, but also signs of stamina (Daylami! Alhaarth!) that could certainly give them a chance of getting the mile. Plus, in Arcano’s case, we are starting to see how Green Desert’s sons are passing on quality at a range of distances, not just sprinters.
No chance!
I can recall watching the race on ATR and I don’t know if it was because Peslier was on board or whether it was his come from the back win – but somehow it reminded me of ‘Cockeny Rebel’!
Zenjah, given that Cockney Rebel won at Newmarket and the Curragh, wouldn’t that be a good indication? I doubt Hearts of Fire will actually make much impression, but it would be a real boost for those fading bloodlines of his sire and damsire that he carries.
Strictly speaking, yes, horses who ran over a mile as a 2yo don’t do THAT well. However, Entrepreneur & Sea The Stars both won over the distance.
I wouldn’t back Elusive Pimpernel because I just don’t think he’s fast enough. They go 6 furlong pace in the Guineas and look what happened when they did that in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes. He was hard off the bridle the whole time. I’d strongly fancy him to be running on into 3rd or so.
Hearts Of Fire is great value by the way. He was still in on the trends the other day and I could only eliminate him by means of being a fairly late foal.
I do think Kingsfort’s the main one right now though. Once-raced National Stakes winners tend to be very special.
OleBahram: It was more of a rose tinted recollection of an observation – the ‘Rebel’ being one of my fav Guineas winners.
There’s something great about the underdog that’s unfashionably bred from the small stable – that goes on and beats the power houses and breeding monopolies that take for granted the mopping up of prizes.
As for ‘Arcano’ what are we to make of the Morny form?
Race record time (I think) – but bunched finish and two fillies in the mix – albeit the current fav for the 1000!The fact that Hannon has never had a group 1 or 2 winner in France in 39 years says that too much was expected of ‘Canford Cliffs’ that day.
Also his juvenile runners have lost 34 times in pattern company after a eight week rest – he had a ten week spell.I thought that ‘Zanzibari’ ran a big race as the ground was maybe too quick and the trip way too short – and the fact that he finished so close after struggling to keep up from the start says that the others didn’t have a whole lot left at the end – I think that he’s still with Fabre a big+
Zarkava: Interesting points as ever… ‘Kingsfort’ has gone under the radar – but Godolphin/Dubai and the run from ‘Chabal’ in the Dewhurst???
This early foal stuff would have put many off of ‘Sea The Stars’ last year – he was an April foal – 3rd youngest in the field and quite a bit younger than the other more fancied runners.
I did research after and I think that he was the 2nd youngest winner of the race – clearly shows how special he was…Being a late foal is not an issue in my opinion Hearts of Fire won the Brocklesby Condition Stakes on the 27th March 2009 and he was foaled on the 22nd April 2007. He looked weak in the paddock that day but showed what all good horses have, a good turn of foot. I’m not sure what happened to him over his next few races, maybe the distances were too short for him, but when you think he had the speed to win a 5 furlong race at the begining of the season and both speed and stamina to win a fast run Group 1 race on soft ground at the end of the season, showing a great turn of foot, the current price of 33-1 seems more than generous to me. Lets hope Pat Eddery can put his name on the 2000 guineas as a trainer as well as a jockey
It doesn’t seem to affect 2yos for some reason. I presume it’s down to maturity. Several top class 2yos have been April/May foals and then have disappointed at the top level as a 3yo. The obvious recent example is Rainbow View.
The stats however against April and May foals (only May for fillies) are resounding. A dire, dire record in both the Guineas and Derby/Oaks.
Zenjah – could well be the 2nd youngest winner, not even late-March foals have that great a record. Going off memory Refuse To Bend was March 14th and Mark of Esteem was March 26th, but everything else was February and early-March.
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