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- Total Posts 17716
Well done Bull , if there one to be dug out you’ll find it
Unbelievable 4.95 SP for a place on Canford Cliffs but with Dick Turpin finishing just in front of him the market got it right.
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Wouldn’t dream of critising Hughsie but had he known Canford Cliffs stayed as well as he did he would have without doubt made more use of him and come sooner. The problem with horses like him is had he done so and lost he would have been slagged to death for coming too soon….sort of a no win situation but now they know the score I wouldn’t be backing anything against him if he is kept at amile.
Wouldn’t be writing off St Nicholas Abbey for the Derby and there was always the worry he would be taken off his feet in this Guineas which was full of speed horses.
Someone mentioned you need a 1m2f to win the Guineas and many do but not this time. The winner this time round and the Hannon pair look like top notch milers and those who need further like SNA and Elusive Pimpernel have run very decent trials for Epsom.
SNA – Personally I’ll be pricing it up if it runs again around the theory it hasn’t trained on.
What price will you give me PM, I think it ran a cracker for a horse crying out for a further trip.
JohnJ
- Total Posts 17716
an equally sharp rise to the finishing line.
but if you start to get organised too early and start using up fuel then you won’t have enough left for the run uphill
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point is it ain’t flat and takes some getting!!
Hi Big Bucks,
The point is it beggars belief that so many punters are ignorant of the fact – long may it last!
Mick Kinane’s view (from today’s RP):
"You need a well-balanced, classy horse for this, and one with a lot of pace.
Newmarket is a very quick mile and you run back uphill only in the last 100yds
. When the race starts in earnest you’ll be running downhill into the dip and any horse lacking in pace will be found wanting."
How very ignorant of him?
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Far too early to be saying SNA hasn’t trained on. AOB has a very poor strike rate so far with his 3yo’s which surely indicates there a bit behind.
You could argue EP finished closer today than he did at Donnie but my bet is AOB has kept loads up his sleeve for the more important races later in the season.
Look how long it took for Mastercraftsman and RVW to get going last year………The 2000 Guineas is obviously not the be all and end all for AOB.
If you saw Aidan O’Brien’s post race interview with Emma Spencer, you will have heard a man who seemed quite optimistic about St Nicholas Abbey’s future. He said that SNA had clocked similar times at home comparable with any of his good milers of the past and that the slow pace in the early stages went against the horse and he’d been hoping for a truly run mile; implying that had it been, then SNA would have been hard to beat. Well that’s what I took from it.
He also said ( and more tellingly ) that the Guineas was just a stepping stone for The Derby.
I think, from what I gauged from Aidan O’Brien’s interview, is that he definitely has bags of confidence in the horse, and that we will see a very different performance when he steps up in distance.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
When has the winner of the 2000 Guineas made his debut on the 27th of November
My Word this 33/1 was kind….on trends he could have 200/1.
What a complete freak of a race.
And regards AOB and the pacemaker angle…they went slow in RP and slow again today. He travelled up really really well but the response was minimal when the taps were opened and plugged along for the rest of the journey at the same pace.
Maybe he wasn’t as sharp as they thought or as i expected him to be. Behind that scenes i would think they would be shook to the core that the horse didn’t win. That’s a massive blot on the book now.
And regards AOB and the pacemaker angle…they went slow in RP and slow again today. He travelled up really really well but the response was minimal when the taps were opened and plugged along for the rest of the journey at the same pace.
I don’t think you can compare his run today to the RP Trophy. That was a stamina test given that it was a 2yo race run on soft ground. Today’s contest was a speed trial. Bottom line is that Authorized and Motivator would never have won their Guineas either if they’d run.
Wallace – slow at Doncaster and slow pace here are two completely different things. The ground that day was yielding while today was much firmer.
It developed into a speed test. Not sure why AOB didn’t run a pacemaker, he hinted afterwards that ‘we usually do’ and they may regret that.
All that said, I think over a mile he’d struggle with some of those that finished in front given any pace.
Perhaps the Racing Post Trophy win looked better on the eye than it actually was. 2nd, 4th and 7th today came out of the Dewhurst, 5th and 6th and 9th out of the RP.
He (SNA) will improve for a distance and for today’s race I am certain but the 7/2 for the Derby looks a bit tight.
Obviously different races Euro accept that point without doubt. While it was a speed test i would have thought he would have more gears…he had no gear today. He didn’t ever look like winning when the pressure came.
I just thinking that since he did it so easy last year….didn’t really tune him at home. But after a 6-7 month break you have to do a bit of early season fast tuning work after the bad winter and maybe the horse’s that have had the runs (4 first 5 had ran in trials) had the advantage.But then again the horse looked magnificent in the Paddock so he didn’t look like the winter affected him to much.
Strange race….I was sure Viscount Nelson would provide pace but he was held at the back ridden for speed when stamina is his ace.
Trying to work out how everyone got it so badly wrong….maybe it was just a freak race with results that can’t be explained. The winner is obviously Very good but
are manyFfs just back from Newmarket. Never in my life have I had 3 winners, turned a profit of £300+ and been so depressed as this. What an utter joke race. Went no gallop the first furlongs and turned into a 4f sprint. Look at the sire + damsire stamina index figures of the first 4 home – highest is 17.something. The race was a total freak, first one since Golan.
Anyone want to give me odds for Makfi not to win again?
And ffs, would the tv ‘experts’ please be quiet. Wallace and Bosranic, I was there. He didn’t look a million dollars. His mouth was foaming and he looked on edge in the pre-parade ring. He needed a second handler ffs, and when he turned up St. Nick wasn’t happy in the slightest.
Zarkava
Do you think SNA will win the derby though sad today i hope he bounces back at Epsom
"His mouth was foaming and he looked on edge in the pre-parade ring. He needed a second handler ffs, and when he turned up St. Nick wasn’t happy in the slightest."
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 48-15.html
Look at the pictures i posted he always foams from the mouth and has 2nd handlers so don’t accept that for an excuse. But he was jumpy in the paddock as you say and maybe the occasion got to him.
With regards the Pace i agree i can’t understand what Fallon was doing tbh. Surely with 80 2yr olds entered up last year he could pick one that can run like a hair for 4-5f. But me thinks they didn’t have him ready.
Well this is what I couldn’t understand, why was there no pace? It makes no sense. So many fast horses in there, so many possible 7f horses in there, I thought pace was a given.
Darren, just had a sizeable bet on St. Nick for the Derby at 4s. My friend and I were thinking maybe 5/2, 3/1 at best, but 4s is a crazy, crazy price.
I am as gobsmacked as you Zark.
For the beresford they had a rogue in to set the pace up for him and that was just a 2yr old race.
I dont know i found it strange….Me thinks a wee bit of overconfidence in the ability from the Ballydoyle Team which is surprising. The market could not have been any more positive.
Oh well…i think we chalk the whole race down to
What happened Awzaan i wonder? Hmmm
Well this is what I couldn’t understand, why was there no pace? It makes no sense. So many fast horses in there, so many possible 7f horses in there, I thought pace was a given.
Darren, just had a sizeable bet on St. Nick for the Derby at 4s. My friend and I were thinking maybe 5/2, 3/1 at best, but 4s is a crazy, crazy price.
Sorry Zarkava but i cant remember such an anti-climax of a Guineas, St Nicholas Abbey is a Soft ground horse,his action tells us that,i wouldn"t touch him for any race after todays performance on fast ground and why does Aidan O Brien use the same excuse every time one of his gets beat "He"d have preferred an end to end gallop" Ergh! Pacemaker!
Wallace, they keep doing this. Their race tactics are abysmal. Their inability to use a pacemaker properly is startling. I mean where was Air Chief Marshal ffs.
In the interests of aftertiming, I did place lay St. Nick at 1.46 after I saw him in the paddock (been talking about doing this for weeks anyway), had Jukebox Jury and also Equiano, but I’m utterly depressed about Elusive Pimpernel. Clearly the best horse in the race at the trip (was 3 lengths behind St. Nick early on and finished up ahead of him) and he’s been beaten because there was no pace in what should have been run at July Cup pace.
I’m on the phone to Billy Hills in a sec to get a price for Makfi never to win again. The first 4 home are all sprinters. You could have run the race over 10f at the same pace and the result probably wouldn’t have changed. Terrible.
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