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Does he go on Good to Firm
Can he accelerate on Good to Firm
Will he get down and up the hill
Has he matured over the winterIs he just another Rainbow View?
The big question we all need to ask. Will the low draw speedsters provide a better lead than Greyfriarschorista/Viscount Nelson give those drawn in double figures? Can SNA win the race if his lead pony is lengths off the serious sustained speed on the other side of the track?
Viscount Nelson is SNA’s ‘lead pony’?
VN has led, disputed or raced prominently. Perhaps they’ll forge the pace with it?
Hi newyork
They place the stalls off the rails so they will come down the middle – see video link
Looks like EP has a cracking draw same as Sea the Stars.
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 92,00.html
Going currently Good to Firm – little rain forecast so they shouldn’t need to add any.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingr … =newmarket
Fryern: I am listening to you and have been interested to support your local vineyard
but –I think I sense a little amount of ‘justication’, making a case, in this post?
Isn’t it the case that last year stalls were centre (even far). This year they are stands side?
They say Canford Cliffs out of box 4 might lug left for pressure – I’d guess perhaps at some point in the dip. You don’t want to be behind that one I’d suggest as it becomes unbalanced and it’s stamina gives. Although, whilst they’ve said there’s always the July Cup, they think a bit of it, and it could be the lead horse to be shot at at some point coming up the hill.
Whether they’ll spilt into two is important. Obviously the bigger the field size the greater the propensity for that to happen. In 2007 24 split into two; 2002, 22; 1994, 23. Although in the biggest field of 27 in 2000 (Kings Bests year – beat Giants Causeway) they raced as one herd. In 1996 just 13 runners divided into two groups with the first three home from the 7 who raced on the stands side the remaider racing centre.
Apart from those 2 exceptions though, every field of 20 or less (back to 88) has remained as one racing group.
I see a propensity toward a midbox divide with I’d guess Al Zir (10) and Fencing Master (9) likely to want to remain near their stablemates drawn high and Hannon maybe wanting DT near CC low. Maybe.
With stalls on the stands side teams O’Brien and Godolphin would be unlikely I’d think to be considering a dash for the far rail. Unless there was a perceived track bias, a strip of faster ground over there like in RoG’s year.
The home hope horses in what you might call team Southern England (Hannon, Dunlop, Hills, Balding, Eddery, Best, McBride) drawn low might be vulnerable to tactics.
If I were Coolmore/Godolphin, all other things being equal, I’d not track off into a seperate group far side (well not for long anyway), I’d keep my position or come over so not only ensuring the field races as one but perhaps creating a wall of horses behind which Elusive Pimpernell and Awzaan having to be held up/come late off a rails draw could well get stuck behind.
So it might be wishful thinking to suppose EP might get all that space Sea the Stars did on the centre/stalls flank last year. It could look like a very different race the traffic problems perhaps sharpened by horses drawn low wobbling around in the dip.
Expanding on my earlier posts…
The lack of obvious pacesetters in the race and respective draws of those who could take advantage, strongly suggest that the majority of the field will remain in in one group down the middle, with perhaps a small contingent remaining on both sides.
It will be interesting to see what tactics Frankie employs on Al Zir. The colt raced prominently to win his first two races and is sure to stay. Frankie rides from the front as well as anyone, especially at Newmarket, and he may fancy his chances of dictating from his position in stall ten of the nineteen runners.
Mark Johnston’s second string, Greyfriarschorista, made all to win his three races, likewise Red Jazz when winning the Free Handicap. The latter is considered more of a Jersey type according to Barry Hills, so there’s every chance he could be ridden with more restraint to get the trip.
They are drawn thirteen and three, respectively.
Lots of support on these pages for Elusive Pimpernel, with many suggesting why he could reverse Racing Post Trophy form with St Nicholas Abbey. The one thing in his favour is the course – two of his three victories have been at Newmarket. However, St Nicholas Abbey is a very athletic looking individual and one would have to assume he will act on the track.
Elusive Pimpernel always looked the type to improve between two and three, but both the pedigree and physique of the Ballydoyle inmate suggest likewise. It would be folly, not to mention hopeful, to presume that the favourite has not improved since last year.
The ground should not inconvenience either colt, with John Dunlop always maintaining that his charge was unsuited by the softer conditions at Doncaster – his action suggests otherwise, but you can’t argue with
his performance on quick ground in the Craven. St Nicolas Abbey has a solid turn of foot for a horse sure to be suited by further, so he will not mind the fast conditions, either.In all of his four starts, regardless of the standard, Elusive Pimpernel has been one of the first to come under pressure. It would be something to worry about if it first came to prominence in the Craven, but it’s obviously a trait of his and it is encouraging that he finds plenty when asked for an effort. It will certainly stand him in good stead coming out of the dip and meeting the uphill finish, but if some of the speedier types see out the trip, he could struggle to catch them.
Taking everything into consideration, it’s hard to imagine Elusive Pimpernel reversing what was an emphatic victory for St Nicholas Abbey. Aiden O’Brien’s unbeaten colt went by his main rival without being asked a serious question and he was good value for a near four length margin of victory.
Hi Pedigreeman,
If you can find some Nyetimber 1995 Classic Cuvée it won’t dissappoint. It’s used to be around £17 a bottle! Try your local Waitrose you may get lucky. The Moss’s used to supply HM with the 1993.
So where did you find out about the stalls? Don’t think it will be a problem as it is a wide track. Should be plenty of room for the gooduns.
So it’s Nyetimber the win and Pedigree a place!
Should be a great race and we could have a record time -wind behind if a bit cool, if you believe the weather man.
The first race on the card will be indicative of any track bias. Perhaps. I hope to find time to read that race.
It seems in fact that whilst all other races on the card stalls are stands side, the 2000 (and the JC) stalls are centre.
I still wouldn’t want to be on the inner of Canford Cliffs. Hannon knows it needs to go in a straight line to get every yard so I think they target a point on the stands side rail. A rail might help it go in a straight line when it wants to hang left. So Ahern and Hills I think will want to track across right and look for a run through the outer.
With births in 14, 12 and 9 O’Brien holds centre track. Does he track over to the far rail leaving a gap down the centre? Or does he close that gap? And if so, when?
Where the pace is across the track will still be important even if they race as a single herd. If all the pace through the race is low those drawn high could be left too far off the pace. Although I think there’s plenty of pace high.
I’m not saying EP might have to come around the whole field but I can see a scenario where it might need to. That’s not to say it couldn’t. No pace is too strong.
Hi Pedigreeman
I think EP will run as in this race re positioning:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,319524,00.html
He has to quicken from 3f out and he can.
More balls on the line:-
I’m very excited," said Ahern.
"The horse won very well at Newmarket – I liked the way he quickened away at the end and the ground is in my favour. I think he ticks all the boxes.
"St Nicholas Abbey is obviously the danger.
"On soft ground he beat me by four lengths but he’s going to be running on quicker ground on a track that might not suit him.
"My horse was a big two-year-old and has really developed over the winter. He has improved, and hopefully he has improved enough to reverse the four lengths."
http://www.dullinghamweather.co.uk/
Yep looks like it not a drop……
LAST READING AT TIME: 21:40 PM DATE: 30 April 2010, time of next update: 21:50 PM
Current Weather Night time Current Temperature 10.3°C (50.5°F), Apparent temp 10.2°C
Maximum Temperature (since midnight) 16.3°C at: 1:52 PM Minimum Temperature (since midnight) 8.3°C at: 6:54 AMRainfall (last hour) 0.0 mm Rainfall (since midnight) 0.0 mm (0.00 in.)—
W Hills seem to have suspended their betting on oddschecker; does that mean that they think they’ve let St Nicholas Abbey go off at too big a price? There seems to be serious money going on him. My horses seem to be doubling in price…
I’ve taken an exchange position at ridiculous figures about Viscount Nelson.
He’s part of my 7 who fit the speed/stamina spread.
The way he’s bred anything he did at two was always going to be a bonus. Despite that his form isn’t bad.
O’Brien warned us his are better for a run.
Fallon seems to have crept up on the beast almost unnoticed by the wider public.
He’s at the top end of the stamina bracket so he needs a strong pace but could kick early, get first run and wear them down from the front. His draw position enables him to lay up just near the shoulder of the flank centre far pinning the field in then bounce and get first run. And if there is any softening of the going I don’t think that harms him.
Stranger things have happened at Sea
fencing master is my number 1 but have also had a go on makfi 28-1 and elsporth boy 100-1.
There’s been a concerted move for Fencing Master on the exchanges over the last few minutes. Most everything else at this point in time is on the drift.
SNA is going to be so hard to beat, the reason for his gamble is probably there isn’t a whole lot to beat, most horses just seem to boost his form, and the Dewhurst will probably seen as a weak race last year with Beethoven winning it, although if you want value surely Dick Turpin is a stupid price considering how well he finished from a fading Canford Cliffs yet he is half the price, and you have the unknown quantity in Makfi who could be anything and maybe a real threat if he acts on the quicker ground.
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I’ve taken an exchange position at ridiculous figures about Viscount Nelson.
He’s part of my 7 who fit the speed/stamina spread.
The way he’s bred anything he did at two was always going to be a bonus. Despite that his form isn’t bad.
O’Brien warned us his are better for a run.
Fallon seems to have crept up on the beast almost unnoticed by the wider public.
He’s at the top end of the stamina bracket so he needs a strong pace but could kick early, get first run and wear them down from the front. His draw position enables him to lay up just near the shoulder of the flank centre far pinning the field in then bounce and get first run. And if there is any softening of the going I don’t think that harms him.
Stranger things have happened at Sea
Imo, Viscount Nelson is simply there to set the pace for SNA, and there’s no finer judge than KF, which is why he’s riding him.
Still say there up against it though, without help from the weather, and still say with no rain a miler will win it – as they usually do.SNA is going to be so hard to beat, the reason for his gamble is probably there isn’t a whole lot to beat, most horses just seem to boost his form, and the Dewhurst will probably seen as a weak race last year with Beethoven winning it, although if you want value surely Dick Turpin is a stupid price considering how well he finished from a fading Canford Cliffs yet he is half the price, and you have the unknown quantity in Makfi who could be anything and maybe a real threat if he acts on the quicker ground.
The reason behind SNA shortening would have to have something do with a good hour and a half of rain in Newmarket earlier. Elusive Pimpernel supporters (me) will be hoping it hasn’t effected the going and it remains dry overnight.
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