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In 49 runnings of the Racing Post trophy how many winners have gone on to win the 2000 guineas? a cursory glance shows 1.
That’s probably because it’s a severe test for a juvenile, and is consequently contested mostly by middle distance horses. The race has a much better record as a Derby trial.
It’s all very well SNA having too much speed for other middle distance aspirants, but no way on earth does that show he’s quick enough to win a Guineas, (But then, making virtually all in a fast race over Newbury’s stiff 7 is hardly the sign of a sprinter, either
).Newmarket is expecting raing tomorrow, fri and saturday. The ground will not be good/good to firm. It will suit SNA and he will win comfortably. The odds of SNA have shortened because of it, EP has drifted slightly.
No doubt they will get a fair rematch on fast ground, but not this time.
I noticed that some horses
had entries for 6f races later in the year. I’d assume it would be best to avoid these. They include Canford Cliffs, Awzaan, Inler and Red Jazz.
Hi Swifto
They were going to put some water on it just looks like they won’t need to. The link below will give a true picture of the going.
EP’s not on the drift only 3 go 5-1.
One thing is for certain EP has been enjoying some great weather in Arundel for the last couple of weeks.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=newmarket
Not surprised to see money/price changes on Fencing Master, although who knows if he’ll be ready to roll fto?
Fryern thank-you.
What are your thoughts on the race?
Does anyone really think SNA may not have progressed well moving into bein a 3yo under AOB?
Just to add, I know the owner of Xtension fairly well. He has told me recently (last Sat) that Xtension has progressed very well and will be in the mix. The further the better upto 1m. He seems to finish very well and has an effective turn of foot.
Hi Swifto
I’ve only backed the one in this and it’s just up the road from me. So I’m biased towards EP. Interesting, my local bookie pointed me at Xtension back in February which made me look at the race in detail. At the time Xtension was 33-1 and EP 25-1.
I looked at all the videos and emailed back that he should also look at EP. I took 25-1 several times and 20-1 about EP.
SNA is too short a price for my money. If EP is still 5-1 with a run I shall have more ew 1/4 odds a place.
I would not be surprised to see Xtension run a good race and Cox is a good trainer. Stan James & Sportingbet go 18-1. My advice would be wait until you get a guaranteed run then have your bet and take a price – best odds guaranteed if you can get it.
Good luck..
Xtension is 100% running. I spoke with the owner on Saturday at length. I said that I didnt think it would win the race and that CC beat it by 6L, but he then pointed out that Dick Turpin beat CC recently and Xtension beat DT by 4-5L previously.
Xtension is a solid EW bet at 18/1.
If this ground stays good/good to firm, I’d love to see EP win. But I dont think SNA will have a problem with the ground.
Who is this horse Makfi?
Dunno but he’s my fun bet for the race. Should like the quicker ground?
Backed it today at 40/1. Black cat ran across the road in front of us tonight on the way back from the cinema….is that good luck, said Mike. Hope so, says I.
Have always liked fencing master 4 this so happy 2 see heavy support 4 him 2day. Maybe SNA could be withdrawn, but F M is my pick of obriens with or without him.
….errrr; I backed him today along with the French horse and Al Zir. And I’m really going to stop there. I think.
The wide expanses of the Rowley Mile can be deceptive in their perspective; the temptation for the inexperienced is to go for home too soon. But more than that is the undulating topography of this trickiest of pitches, in particular the infamous Dip a quarter of a mile out, a downhill run of a furlong before an equally sharp rise to the finishing line.
"It comes at the most crucial time of the race," said Fallon, "just when you’re starting to get your horse ready for the final effort. You want him or her to be balanced and travelling smoothly as you start the descent,
but if you start to get organised too early and start using up fuel then you won’t have enough left for the run uphill
.
"If you try to start to accelerate going downhill you risk becoming unbalanced and if you leave it too late the others will have got first run. It’s a very fine line to decide where and when to go."
point is it ain’t flat and takes some getting!!
Exactly Big Bucks.
This is why, at this stage in the 3yo campaign, and given the customary good to strong pace, you need a horse bred along 1m2f lines.
Remember any doubters, that a racehorse is not a horse until he is aged 4. He is a colt. In other words he is, generally still developing. A bit like a human teenager. That is why the difficult imponderable after condiserations of class and speed/stamina balance, going preferences, is quite where the horse, sorry, colt, has progressed with his development between 2 and 3.
John Dunlop well understands this. We are grateful to him for his candour on how EP has filled out and strengthened. Mr Dunlop is undoubtedbly a seasoned and knowledge professional to be respected. But it isn’t, as John knows, a two horse race.
I had the impression a few years back, I think it was Haafhd’s year – it was on the soft side of good I think – by the thought that if I was to drive over the terrain in a vehicle I would choose a pacey but powerful 4 wheel drive rather than a sportscar. In equine terms more a bull than a cat. If that makes sense.
I’ll keep the sportscar for the Jersey Stakes or the July Cup.
In answer to the correct assertion by someone earlier that many guineas winners are campaigned over a mile. Well yes. The path, if you can, is the St James Palace and the Sussex. But do note how many guineas winners campaigned that way do take on either the Champions Stakes or now the Breeders Cup 1m2f championship as they are closer to approaching horsedom in the autumn.
The bottom line is of course stud value.
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