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I’m a huge fan of St Nick but taking on Canford Cliffs and co isn’t the way to go.
He had Derby written all over him and he’s not a miler IMO.
OK he won the racing post and looked the business but that was a race full of less classy horses than himself all needing much further.
If Canford Cliffs gets amile he wins if he doesn’t AOB has plent of ammunition to take advatage of that situation while St Nick waits for the Dante or some other trial.
I would imagine they are thinking better won the Dante won the Derby reads better than 2nd in the 2,000 guineas won the Derby. Plus if they have another horse good enough for the guineas better having two classic winners to go breeding than one.
Like Fist, I am a big fan of Canford Cliffs, and I’m hopeful that he can develope into a top miler.
St Nicholas Abbey looks for all the world a middle distance horse – especially on breeding; although his dam won at distances up to nine furlongs. I think he is ( at this stage ) the one they all have to beat in the Derby.
That said, A O’Brien has another colt who caught my eye last season, and he could yet prove to be every but as good as St Nicholas Abbey – i.e. Jan Vermeer, who shows a tremendous attitude to racing.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
The 2000 Guineas is a good Derby Trial.
Why not go for the 2000 on the way to Epsom?
SNA has excellant speed, yes it’s probable he’ll stay, around 60-70% chance I’d say.
But what if he doesn’t? If not going the 2000 route then there’s no chance of a classic win.Though my pocket hopes he misses the 2000 (I’m another on Canford Cliffs); my heart wants the best horses to turn up.
Value Is EverythingMontjeu hasn’t had a 3yo+ Group 1 winner over a distance shorter than 10 1/2f despite several attempts. Motivator failed twice, Hurricane Run once, Authorized once, Fame and Glory twice. His horses are just too slow.
Jan Vermeer is a good horse but his style of racing does not win 1m4 races he is a front runner. could he stay in front up to a 1m2 and keep ST Nicholas Abbey at bay in the final 2F i can’t see it.
I hope O’Brein puts SNA in the trail.
Jan Vermeer is a good horse *but his style of racing does not win 1m4 races he is a front runner.* could he stay in front up to a 1m2 and keep ST Nicholas Abbey at bay in the final 2F i can’t see it.
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Reference Point ?!?!
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St Nicholas Abbey will win the Guineas and the Derby. Montjeu hasn’t had a Guineas winner but how many years did it take Sadlers Wells to finally get a Derby winner?
Montjeu has never sired a horse as good as St Nick in my opinion I think he’s a machine and machines defy statistics.
All I see in St Nicholas Abbey is potential. His resolution/battling ability still hasn’t been tested, and we’ve yet to see if he’s versatile enough to handle a race run at a strong pace. Both essential traits for any real superstar imo.
Ridiculous prices for both races.
Montjeu is an established sire. FootstepsintheSand needs a Guineas winner to establish himself.Breeders will not be go to a sire who could give you anything when you specifically want speed.Especially with the danger of getting a filly from Montjeu.
By definition all the races SNA ran in so far had less classy horses than himself in them.
Jan Vermeer is a good horse *but his style of racing does not win 1m4 races he is a front runner.* could he stay in front up to a 1m2 and keep ST Nicholas Abbey at bay in the final 2F i can’t see it.
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Reference Point ?!?!
What i mean is who was the last front runner to win the Derby or a Group One 1M4 race.Rareley happens now it is about horses who come from behind who have a strong finishing kick in the final 2f.
Awzaan looked a horse with immense promise last term while winning some top class races, hopefully will improve again and be a major force in the classics this season.
Awzaan lacks scope,he was a smart 2yo but wont progress to the level of a 2000 gns winner! On the other hand
Steinbeck
was just a baby last year both physically and mentally,his kid gloves treatment by the meastro will reap rewards this year,he has 2000gns written all ove him! Sir Nicholas Abbey looks a Derby sort to me,he wont have the gears for the guineas!
As an out and out jumps man I take your word that Awzaan lacks the scope to mature into a top class 3 y/o, he was very precocious at 2. Just can’t help thinking that after an unbeaten 2 y/o campaign he still has more to offer.
Think O’Brien holds all the aces in most of the classics this year though, there’s no Sea The Stars to worry about (even though there maybe a young starlet somewhere) and St. Nicholas Abbey has the world at his feet. Steinbeck is unexposed and ran a good 4th in the Dewhurst, has untold potential and an interesting contender.
SNA is a stayer, Arcano, Awzaan and CC are sprinters.
Steinbeck should win this easily enough.
Simple.
SNA is a stayer, Arcano, Awzaan and CC are sprinters.
Steinbeck should win this easily enough.
Simple.
What a lot of old tosh, and i say that as someone with Steinbeck as my main guineas bet. Nobody in the history of horse racing can be considered to win the guineas ‘easily enough’ at any stage, let alone now. Anything can spring out from anywhere. I heard through the grapevine that SNA is guineas bound anyway.
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There can be little doubt St Nick will be trained with the Guineas in mind as will Steinbeck but AOB won’t be rushing to make any decisions. Quite frankly how the hell can he at this stage?
How much Steinbeck pleased him in the Dewhurst depends on how well he was going into the race.
On his run behind Beethoven he would have to find an awful lot of improvement. The horse was the subject of an awful lot of hype last year but when he was supposed to take on Canford Cliffs but AOB wasn’t keen to take on the Hannon horse at that time and withdrew him.
Whether he is slow to come to hand due to the setback he had or he simply isn’;t that good you can only guess.
If backing Steinbeck AP at any price you would need a huge leap in faith IMO.
Anyone who reads my diary will know I backed St Nick at long odds for the Derby minutes after he won his first race, so I’m a huge fan.
He was very impressive in the Racing Post but the race was full of 1m4f Derby horses, not milers.
It’s never been the best of 2000 guineas trials for that reason.
The question is can he produce the same turn of foot against the likes of Canford Cliffs, Arcano and Awzaan who all have a great turn of foot. These are much faster horses then Elusive Pimpernel and between them I could see the Guineas being one very fast race.
Of course they would have to stay a mile to win but each of their trainers reckon they will.
Canford Cliff looks the biggest danger if 1. He gets the trip, 2. He can produce his Royal Ascot form.
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Richard Hughes is adamant he will get the trip and there is no doubt in my Mind if anyone can get him spot on for the big day it’s Richard hannon.Fascinating race, 2/1 is crazy as AOB could easily give it a miss.
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