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Elusive Pimpernel is cracking ew value at 5-1.
Goes on the course – won twice over CD
No, his debut was over 7f on the July Course. His only CD win came in the Craven, a race that several other supposed ‘good things’ have won just as impressively and then flopped in the Guineas.
Fryern, despite being a big ante-post (potential) winner on Elusive Pimpernel, you’re setting yourself up for a fall…
You are right about the 7f he just goes much better over 8f at Newmarket.
Setting myself up for a fall? No I haven’t called Billy yet!
http://www.arundelhouseonline.com/gallery.html
At the time of posting Lads are going biggest on both ‘SD’ 4/1 & ‘EP’ 5/1
During the Hong Kong International meeting last year they had ‘Vision’ at 11/2 (when most were only 9/2) and ‘Daryakana’ at 9’s when others were shorter…i.e 7’s…
We all know that both won!
It will be good to see how their stance on these two plays out on this in the 1000 & 2000 Guineas…
Fry – have to hand it to you – a master at PR!
I can only say that some of these political parties could maybe do with some of your help in drumming the same amount of support for them as you have the ‘EP’ – before the next election!
Side Nagy : The entries are out for the French Guineas trials and Jockey club trial – AP O’Brien has nothing entered from his ‘army’…
What does this say about how forward his string are?
As last year year he bombarded these early trials…
Austria have the greatest spin doctors.Convinced the world they did that Hitler was German and Mozart was Austrian!
So. Beethoven now goes for the French Guineas and Steinbeck
goes for the Irish Guineas.How interesting that Ballydoyle could not just say, that that was their choice from the beginning because they want SNA to win the English and the other ones to win the Irish and French equivalent. They came up with a story about setbacks. How convenient, O Felix Culpa.`Time will prove the Oracle.Re the discussion on SNA being a Montjeu –
The speed SNA showed at two clearly comes from the dam’s side. (Sure Blade 10.1, Desert Wine 7.0). The speed-stamina profile is in the perfect range for a guineas prospect. At 6/4 it’s right to look for question marks but that’s not the place. This is-
The grand dam Flamenco Wave was trained by John Oxx to win the Moyglare Stakes at two but failed to train on.
That would seem to be a trait inherited from it’s damsire Sadair a speedy multiple US Stakes winner at two but who failed to win aged three or older.
SNA has a full sister, Cascata, who won her only juvenile start but, guess what – failed to win at three.
On two year old form SNA wins the race. But the Guineas is about, amongst other things, which candidates have progressed over the winter. Anyone remember One Cool Cat?
Montjeu’s progeny generally progress well but if SNA inherits it’s speed from the female line there is also a chance it could inherit this tendancy of the family not to train on. That is the very real question it has to answer.
Warm noises from Ballydoyle about SNA having progressed well over the winter (if anyone sees any quotes please post) might provide assurance – or they might not. I seem to remember positive media from O’Brien about One Cool Cat: a favourite I opposed – with Haafhd – on account, partially, of the fact it was by Storm Cat whose progeny from 2 to 3 have a tendancy to not train on.
One thing about John and his team you do get an honest answer. Yesterday:-
"Elusive Pimpernel has come out of his Newmarket run in good order and we have been pleased by his progress since," said Marcus Hosgood, racing secretary to trainer John Dunlop.
He should look magnificant next week
Goes the sire or does the dam have more to say about whether the offspring will stay or will progress from two to three?
Some more evidence on this potential influence for precociousness in SNA’s female line. Consider Aristotle.
By Sadlers Wells (SNA’s grandsire) out of Flamenco Wave (SNA’s granddam) so quite closely related to SNA, Aristotle also won the Racing Post Trophy (RPT)(in 1999).
I wouldn’t go so far as to say Aristotle didn’t train on but certainly his form suggests he was at the peak of his prowess aged two. At three, having ‘won’ (was disqualified) a Group 2 in France, Aristotle was a non-staying 10th in Sinndar’s Derby. Sent off third favourite he significantly under performed his market position. That was his final start at three and the last time he was seen on a track in Europe.
At 4 Aristotle won a 1m2f race worth half the value of the RPT in Singapore. He ended his racing days there down the field in an, albeit valuable, handicap. A horse, undoubtedly, in relative decline after an illustrious two-year-old campaign.
The Flamenco Wave influence – early development rather than progressive types. Set the world on fire at two but then..
Most of what I read about SNA seems to be wishful thinking. Why not wait until after the race to decide for sure whether he trained on or not.Is Aristotle the only son of Sadlers Wells to not train on or did most of them not train on? Do full brothers reflect the same tendencies as each other? How about less close relations? Does SNA show vastly superior speed to his nearest relations or were they all super talented tyos? Just a few thoughts before buying into the train on theory.
On all known form St Nicholas Abbey at 6/4 is a stonking bet.
I can find very few negatives and even his pedigree can swing both ways.
Imo he is a 8/11 4/6 shot.
On all known form St Nicholas Abbey at 6/4 is a stonking bet.
You can get 13/8 with Stan James!!!
Not for me………..
- Total Posts 17716
St Nick certaily looks like a hot pot and it would take a brave man to oppose him but having backed him at huge odds for the Derby I can afford to let him run unbacked and will be happy if he wins.
Most have not suprisingly written off Canford Cliffs but I’ve been puting 2 and 2 together asked around and come up with 3
One has to be careful what one says but things may just not be as they seem here.
Although it was a small field, when watching the race I was amazed to see Hughsie hit the front from the boxes.
Why? apparently they’ve spent forever teaching the horse to settle at home but Hughsie made absolutly no attapmt to restrain him.
The reasons were twofold IMO to get a good idea if he woud stay a mile….considering he went sideways for over a furlong I’d say he’s almost run over a mile already. Secondly running the way he did will have brought him on a ton.
If that race was the Be all to end all I doubt if the horse would have been ridden the way he was and I’m not for writing him off just yet.
Dick Turpin won’t run accordng to Richard Hannon which may seem odd…unless of course he’s got something up his sleeve. I think you can have a good bet he’ll be a different horse on Guineas day.
Sure SNA looks the business, he has speed stays and is trained by the Maestro but 12/1 ew makes much more appeal.
I’ve grabbed some of that and been having bits and bobs on at around 3s for a place only…..He should be easily got at 4 on Betfair on the big day and for me that’s a much better value bet than 6/4 about SNA.
I’m not a value better I also do think he could still come home in front.
In the race itself against Dick Turpin when Hughsie asked him to quicken up he looked the business and if that was some maiden any good judge would have put him straight into their notebooks. In my book he not only hung he blew up as well.
He’ll be dropped in at Newmarket and we’ll see on the day if I’m right or not.
They always seem to put St Nicholas Abbey out the back in his races…
I wonder will they change tactics for the 2000 Guineas….maybe get him to to be 5l off the pacemaker Viscount Nelson instead of 10l or so.
I be certain Canford Cliffs would have as good as toe as him but whether he has the cruise gear is another thing.
I can’t see how St Nicholas Abbey under the guidance of such a trainer can’t win a Guineas.
Almost be a Travesty tbh.
The Greenham, I wouldn’t even consider Dick Turpin a miler either but looks the better chance of staying it than Canford Cliffs, I think Canford Cliffs defintely has some class about him, I think he could place in the race cause it looks to be a Guineas with no genuine milers in there but Canford Cliffs I couldnt see him being campaigned at 1m after Newmarket, the further he goes the more he looks to struggle and he comes under pressure and asked the question he just loses it which is why he veers imo. Aidan O’Brien you will know will make the race a total stamina test and they will go some pace and it will be enough imo to take the likes of Canford Cliffs out the race.
I’d be amazed if O’Brien loses this one.
I agree with you Red Riot on the Greenham.
20 years of stats show that you need a horse bred to, eventually, get 1m2f to win the Guineas.
On the figures neither Canford Cliffs nor Dick Turpin have sufficient stamina.
Of the 27 entries there are 7 candidates who fit the profile of a Guineas winner.
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