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Anyone surprised that we’ve had a winner come out a suspect Dewhurst?! Well it’s what we all thought at the time wasn’t it?!
The trouble is the form from the Dewhurst spreads far and wide and in all directions – with hindsight are we all sure that it was that weak?
As for this statement:
One does have to question whether the Anti-Post fav for the Derby should be able to quicken off of a slow pace?! – As he did that day.
Wouldn’t that have counted against him?
– most would have thought so. Many have been against him thinking that he needs further than the mile – me included!
Who wants a match race?! Or believes that is what we now have?!
The Dewhurst was a very weak Group 1, probably the worst juvenile Group 1 of last year. Every single run prior and since the Dewhurst from any of the first 6 or 7 home has been a proper and more realistic show of their ability.
Zarkava
11 Mar 2010, 23:21Strictly speaking, yes, horses who ran over a mile as a 2yo don’t do THAT well. However, Entrepreneur & Sea The Stars both won over the distance.
I wouldn’t back Elusive Pimpernel because I just don’t think he’s fast enough. They go 6 furlong pace in the Guineas and look what happened when they did that in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes. He was hard off the bridle the whole time. I’d strongly fancy him to be running on into 3rd or so.
Didn’t you also back ‘Arcano’ even though it went against some sort of trend?! 20/1
I backed Arcano before the Morny at 20/1, yes. Since then I noticed the huge negative that he ran over 6f in a Group race (twice). The only horses that do that and win the Guineas are O’Brien horses. I’ve got 40/1 for Arcano as well (Morny + Guineas) but I’ll be surprised if he even turns up at Newmarket.
I eventually came round to Elusive Pimpernel because I thought to myself ‘a 6f sprinter set a blistering pace in the Acomb which he understandably couldn’t deal with and if you take St. Nicholas Abbey out of the RP Trophy, you’ve got a 4 or 5/1 favourite for the Guineas’ and given he was 30s on Betfair at the same, I just saw huge value.
Andy, the Racing Post only gives a % figure for 7-9f, but the 2% winning percentage over 5-6f surely says everything about the speed factor? 12% winners over 7-9f, 16% 10-11f, 13% 12-13f, 14% 14f+. £6m prize money from 12-13f races, £1.8m prize money from 10-11f, £1.3m prize money from 7-9f.
Look at Montjeu’s 7 ‘best’ progeny. Hurricane Run, Authorized, Motivator, Montmartre, Scorpion, Papal Bull and Fame And Glory. Have any of them won a Group race (not for 2yos) over less than 10f? Scorpion, Montmartre and Hurricane Run didn’t even run over a mile. F&G had the one start on heavy ground over a mile, Papal Bull needed 3 attempts at 7f to get off the mark, etc.
I mean the list goes on and on. Corre Caminos, Changingoftheguard, Frozen Fire, Honolulu, Macarthur, Walk In The Park, Alessandro Volta, Jukebox Jury, Falstaff, etc. Did ANY of those win a Group race over less than 10f? No, they didn’t.
Jukebox Jury was 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy and his absolute minimum now is 12f. Even Frozen Fire managed to win over 7f at the first time of asking.
A quote from Murtagh after the Beresford – ‘He is definitely one to look forward to for next year and you’d like to think of him showing him up for the Derrinstown Derby Trial’
Andy, a little more about St. Nicholas Abbey.
First of all, the fact that Ladbrokes didn’t price him in the first place for the Guineas says a lot.
Second, a bit from Nick Mordin.
‘Aidan O’Brien’s Racing Post Trophy runners have gone on to contest 14 Group 1’s over a mile or less at three without once reaching the first four. They’ve done so 22 times out of 45 at longer distances. So far 24 horses older than two sired by St Nicholas Abbey’s sire Montjeu have tried to win a Group 1 over less than ten and a half furlongs. They all failed.’
Third, St. Nick galloped in the second group at The Curragh, not the first group with all the 6-8f horses. He galloped with
1st MIKHAIL GLINKA
2nd 0.25 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
3rd 2.50 FAME AND GLORY
4th 3.25 AGE OF AQUARIUS
5th 4.25 MIDAS TOUCH
6th 6.00 FLYING CROSS
7th 7.00 AT FIRST SIGHT
8th 7.25 DON CARLOS
9th 8.50 BIG OCCASION
10th 9.00 RAIN FORESTLads also never put ‘Sea The Stars’ into their Arc betting until very late – i.e. 9/4 after the others had laid 9/2!
It then went odds on! – talk about dodge…using maybe a soft ground Arc might not see him turn up – as an excuse for not having him in with everyone else!When they did put SNA in they went shortest…
At the danger of being a bore I say it again.
An ew bet on EP @ 5-1 (even 4-1) 1/4 the odds a place to me is a FREE win bet. He looks certain to make the frame.
Can’t do that at 7/4.
As Groucho Marx would say "Are you going to believe your own eyes or are you going to believe what I am telling you"
I am going to believe what I saw in the Racing Post Trophy.I saw SNA beating EP by 4 extending lengths.Incidentally Aidan is running the winner of the Dewhurst in the Guineas also.He said that it was a good race,better than many said.The winner got to 6th in the BC after a terrible trip in the race,he was firing at the end. I know that the form of the RPT second and 4th has been upheld.However since I don’t bet my commitment is virtual i.e. unreal.I appreciate what you are saying and you could be right,but after last year with Cape Cross/Sea The Stars anything is possible."Zarkava" wrote: Second, a bit from Nick Mordin.
Says it all!
Is this the same Nick Mordin who rates Tidal Bay the best staying hurdler of recent years?!
Celebrate – once it’s run & won Fry!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8eFKTbm3JE
The ‘Dewhurst’ – showed that sometimes the market can be totally wrong!
One of the most amusing posts I have read – to think so much could be read into so little. Mordin is a joke – that piece on the timing of the gallops was embarrassing.
Montjeu is an influence on stamina – well you do not need to be a breeding genius to recognise that. Equally you do not need to be a racing or breeding expert to clearly see St Nicholas Abbey does not look like the typical Montjeu (more a Sadler’s Wells) nor race/or travel like one.
It too Sadler’s Wells an age to sire an Epsom Derby – you were probably on that bandwagon as well? Every sire will have a pattern of breeding – Montjeu clearly imparts plenty of stamina into his progeny. But breeding is not a science and every so often one confounds.
Would I back St Nicholas Abbey at the price? No I much prefer his stablemate Fencing Master at the prices, but equally I am not going to blindly rule him out based on his breeding given that he has so far confounded it by quickening up impressively from off the pace off slow gallops.
Galileo and Sadler’s Wells were both better known for their 10-12 furlong animals but both have proved themselves capable of throwing top class milers and Guineas performers e.g King Of Kings, Rip Van Winkle, New Approach, Refuse To Bend, Entrepreneur etc. To me SNA looks in every way a classy Sadler’s Wells horse rather than your typical Montjeu e.g Scoprpion, Hurricane Run etc who were both the typical big and imposing Montjeu types rather than the finer/narrower SNA.
Andy, a little more about St. Nicholas Abbey.
First of all, the fact that Ladbrokes didn’t price him in the first place for the Guineas says a lot.
Second, a bit from Nick Mordin.
‘Aidan O’Brien’s Racing Post Trophy runners have gone on to contest 14 Group 1’s over a mile or less at three without once reaching the first four. They’ve done so 22 times out of 45 at longer distances. So far 24 horses older than two sired by St Nicholas Abbey’s sire Montjeu have tried to win a Group 1 over less than ten and a half furlongs. They all failed.’
Third, St. Nick galloped in the second group at The Curragh, not the first group with all the 6-8f horses. He galloped with
1st MIKHAIL GLINKA
2nd 0.25 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
3rd 2.50 FAME AND GLORY
4th 3.25 AGE OF AQUARIUS
5th 4.25 MIDAS TOUCH
6th 6.00 FLYING CROSS
7th 7.00 AT FIRST SIGHT
8th 7.25 DON CARLOS
9th 8.50 BIG OCCASION
10th 9.00 RAIN FORESTAndy, a little more about St. Nicholas Abbey.
First of all, the fact that Ladbrokes didn’t price him in the first place for the Guineas says a lot.
Ladbrokes are now shortest about St Nicholas Abbey and longest about Elusive Pimpernel. Why doesn’t that "say a lot"?
Gus, I wasn’t aware Ladbrokes had a mole in Arundel…
No idea why they’re shortest. Perhaps they wanna duck it, just incase
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Fwiw, I believe SNA will struggle for pace in a fast ground Guineas. The RP Trophy might not have been the fastest renewal, but it was certainly more than a sprint, and he’d had to work harder to win the Beresford, run on slightly better ground.
Far too soon to write Canford Cliffs off, imo. He showed a brilliant turn of foot and then tired in the closing stages, but it wasn’t his Guineas today, whereas it probably was the winner’s. No problems staying the mile either – he got done for speed by Arcano on the sharp Deauville track, but Hughsie wasn’t having any of that over this stiffer test, and no surprise he turned the form round emphatically. Expect to see him ridden more patiently over the extra furlong in 2 weeks time, when he’ll certainly be much fitter.
CC looked a decent 6/1 shot before the race; in my view, he’s looking a gift at the 12/1 after.totesport go 7/2EP and 11/8SNA – don’t want to play
I did a fair bit with Ladbrokes at 25-1EP. You can still get 5-1 with Ladbrokes and Coral EP.
Mole in Arundel that must be me. I can highly recommend Arundel House Restaurant the lunches are a snip.
http://www.arundelhouseonline.com/current_menu.html
Fryern wrote:
What did he just say to Mrs Spencer I missed it?You must of missed it due to gloating
No God came into the living room so I had to listen to her!
This keeps ‘God’ happy:-
The Assiette
£4 Dish SupplementMiniatures of all five desserts on one plate
for two people to share, or one to indulge! Since the Greenham, I’m now having slight doubts about Canford Cliffs staying the mile as he looks more of a sprinter (remembering Green Desert). Having said that, yesterdays race was ran in a very fast time. However, I’m feeling more inclined to go with Elusive Pimpernel as things currently stand.
OK, there still a fair chance that Canford Cliffs, if ridden with more restraint, might last out the mile and still run a cracker but he looks more of an each-way proposition.
Elusive Pimpernel does look the one to beat and I was impressed how well he quickened when he hit the rising ground at Newmarket. If the ground is good to firm on Guineas day, this is the horse to find the cracks in St Nicholas Abbey’s armour.
Awzaan is the dark horse of the 2000.
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