2000 Guineas 2009

This is fcuking infuriating. I am in the middle of typing a reply, when the message disappears. I think it is something to do with the fcuking adverts for killing machines being refreshed.

Referring to the posts 1 and 2 pages back, I think it goes like this:-

evasive won’t win the 2,000 Guineas – you have been warned!

This Forum was a bit dead on Tuesday afternoon, so for a change I ventured over to betfair, and unusually I visited the main Horseracing site, rather than the Ante-Post bit. There was a question asking what the figure means in brackets after a stallion’s name (in the Racing Post). I was interested in this subject, as I had used these figures in my trend analysis for the Grand National.

Someone mentioned that there was something that 9 of the last 10 winners had in common that only applied to one or two of the leading fancies for this year’s 2,000 Guineas. I decided to have a look for myself, but whilst I was doing so, the guy posted what it was. Anyway, these are the figures for the past 21 Guineas. (The 1999 Guineas was run on the July course.)

2008 Henrythenavigator Kingmambo 9.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21.1
2007 Cockney Rebel Val Royal 8.2 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Known Fact 8.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16.5
2006 George Washington Danehill 9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Alysheba 11.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 20.3
2005 Footstepsinthesand Giant’s Causeway 9.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Rainbow Quest 11.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 20.2
2004 Haafhd Alhaarth 10.2 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Blushing Groom 10.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 20.7
2003 Refuse To Bend Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Gulch 9.2 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 20.5
2002 Rock Of Gibraltar Danehill 9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Be My Guest 10.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 19.1
2001 Golan Spectrum 9.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Generous 11.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21.4
2000 King’s Best Kingmambo 9.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Lombard 14 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 23.8
1999 Island Sands Turtle Island 10 [/color:3nw0wpd5] JO Tobin 5.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 15.3
1998 King Of Kings Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Habitat 7.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.9
1997 Entrepreneur Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Exclusive Native 10 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21.3
1996 Mark Of Esteem Darshaan 11.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Ajdal 8.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 20
1995 Pennekamp Bering 10.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Green Dancer 11.2 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21.3
1994 Mister Baileys Robellino 10.2 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Sharpen Up 8.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 19.1
1993 Zafonic Gone West 8.2 [/color:3nw0wpd5] The Minstrel 9.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.1
1992 Rodrigo De Triano El Gran Senor 8.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Hot Spark 6.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 15.4
1991 Mystiko Secreto 10 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Zeddaan – [/color:3nw0wpd5] #VALUE!
1990 Tirol Thatching 7.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Great Nephew 10.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.3
1989 Nashwan Blushing Groom 10.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Bustino 11.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21.8
1988 Doyoun Mill Reef 11.2 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Kashmir II – [/color:3nw0wpd5] #VALUE!

The guy said that with the exception of 2007 and 2003, the Sire had a Flat Stamina Index of at least 9 furlongs, and the Damsire of at least 10 furlongs. In Refuse To Bend’s case it is the other way around. Actually, this only applies to 8 of the last 9, rather than 9 of the last 10.

An important question is, how tight or loose do you make a trend? Do we accept any Sire with a figure of 7.7f+ making it fairly meaningless, or do we raise it to 8.9f+, which means it applies to 19 of the last 21.

Similarly, if we use a joint figure of at least 18.9f, it excludes Cockney Rebel, Island Sands, Zafonic, Rodrigo De Triano and Tirol.

These are the figures for the horses that came second:-

2008 New Approach Galileo 11 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Ahonoora 8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 19
2007 Vital Equine Danetime 6.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Selkirk 8.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 15.5
2006 Sir Percy Mark Of Esteem 8.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Blakeney 12.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 20.7
2005 Rebel Rebel Revoque 9.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Ile de Bourbon 12.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 22
2004 Snow Ridge Indian Ridge 7.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Ela-Mana-Mou 12.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 20
2003 Zafeen Zafonic 8.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Kaldoun 8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16.6
2002 Hawk Wing Woodman 9.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Val De L’Orne 13.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 23.8
2001 Tamburlaine Royal Academy 8.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Auction Ring 8.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16.8
2000 Giant’s Causeway Storm Cat 7.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Rahy 9.4 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16.9
1999 Enrique Barathea 9.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Raise A Cup 9.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.9
1998 Lend A Hand Great Commotion 9.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Kris 9.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 19
1997 Revoque Fairy King 7.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Lafontaine 11.4 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 19.2
1996 Even Top Topanoora 9.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Niniski 12.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 22.3
1995 Celtic Swing Damister 9.2 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Welsh Pageant 12.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21.7
1994 Grand Lodge Chief’s Crown 10.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Habitat 7.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 17.7
1993 Barathea Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Habitat 7.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.9
1992 Lucky Lindy Trojan Fen 10.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Bold Forbes 11.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21.6
1991 Lycius Mr Prospector 8.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Lyphard 10.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 19.2
1990 Machiavellian Mr Prospector 8.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Halo 10.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 19.5
1989 Exbourne Explodent 6.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Forum – [/color:3nw0wpd5] #VALUE!
1988 Charmer Be My Guest 10.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Round Table – [/color:3nw0wpd5] #VALUE!

These are the figures for the Entrants with an OR of 110+

Arazan Anabaa 8.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Lear Fan 10.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.4
Art Connoisseur Lucky Story 5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Danehill 9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 14
Ashram Indian Haven – [/color:3nw0wpd5] Fayruz 6.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] #VALUE!
Bushranger Danetime 6.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Efisio 7.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 14.6
Cityscape Selkirk 8.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Distant View 7.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16.6
Crowded House Rainbow Quest 11.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Woodman 9.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21
Delegator Dansili 9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Efisio 7.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16.9
Drumbeat Montjeu 11.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Machiavellian 9.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 20.8
Fame And Glory Montjeu 11.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Shirley Heights 12.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 24
Finjaan Royal Applause 7.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Dayjur 6.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 14.4
Intense Focus Giant’s Causeway 9.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Danehill 9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.1
Jukebox Jury Montjeu 11.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Kenmare 9.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21.5
Lord Shanakill Speightstown 5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Theatrical 11 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16
Mastercraftsman Danehill Dancer 7.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Black Tie Affair 10.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.4
Naaqoos Oasis Dream 7.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Machiavellian 9.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16.4
Orijaba Orpen 7.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Elbio 7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 14.6
Rayeni Indian Ridge 7.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Rainbow Quest 11.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.8
Rip Van Winkle Galileo 11 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Stravinsky 7.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.1
Sayif Kheleyf 6.2 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Rudimentary 9.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 15.5
Sea The Stars Cape Cross 8.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Miswaki 8.3 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16.8
Shaweel Dansili 9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Peintre Celebre 10.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 19.5
Skanky Biscuit Peintre Celebre 10.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Caerleon 10.7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 21.2
Soul City Elusive City 7 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Polish Patriot 8.1 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 15.1
Westphalia Danehill Dancer 7.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Lyphard 10.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 18.4
Zafisio Efisio 7.9 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Zafonic 8.6 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 16.5

I am thinking of using this tool, perhaps combined with a couple of other factors, to have a series of Straight Forecast bets on the 2,000 Guineas. Any ideas would be appreciated. There seems to be a high-priced placed horse quite often in the 2,000 Guineas.

I was planning to keep my own counsel with this until either the 5 day or 48 hours stage.

These are Evasive’s numbers:-

Elusive Quality 7.8 [/color:3nw0wpd5] Storm Cat 7.5 [/color:3nw0wpd5] 15.3

As regards the figures for this year, Art Connoisseur, Ashram and Lord Shanakill are excused boots, as they come from their Sire’s leading echelon. For example, Art Connoisseur’s figure of 5.0 is based upon one horse winning one race. However, I think we can make an educated guess about what their Flat Stamina Index will be.

I would be amazed if AOB didnt have either of these horse cherry riped for newmarket,whether they good enough on the day is a diffrent matter.Over the last 6/7 yrs he has always had a slow time in early season winners and if anything it would be more of a concern if he did start having tons winners early on.The best thing about AOB is he lets the horses come to themselves which is one of the reasons i think his horses hold there form as long as they do through the season. Come guineas day if either of his horse are beaten it wont be because they havent come to hand. On the ladbrokes thing with ballydoyle this is the same bookmaker that went 12-1 with rockhampton after he won his maiden,and he was put in his place at newmarket the other day not what you would expect from a horse that was 4th-5th fav with ladbrokes for the derby plus they were the bookmakers that had HTN at his biggest price before the guineas last i would not take any notice of the ladbrokes/ballydoyle thing to be honest

The magic has been lost from the 2000 Guineas now that Crowded House has been withdrawn. There’s nothing in the race now that really stands out.

Maybe I’ll pick Delegator on the day … but I don’t give a toss what wins.

I dont think I have ever seen what I would describe as shockingly bad guineas, and I suspect this years, although wide open and seemingly lacking an obvious superstar, should be good.

I really dont think Crowded Houses absence makes this race any less good, expecially as he is being targetted elsewhere suggesting a) they dont think he’d have been suited to the race and b) they have one better.

There are still some decent bets available IMO,

Intense Focus

isnt badly priced and has some excellent credentials, which point to him being a possible winner of this- 2nd in what looked a good coventry, and won a dewhurst, the last son of giants causeway to win the dewhurst was arguably the best 1miler of the following season, and Intense Focus is in good hands with Bolger, who clearly reckons he’s some way clear of Vocalised who won the Greenham on saturday- Available at

25s

in places, and so if you do think it is a weak guineas then that must surely look a decent price on one who has some of the best 2yo form on offer, a newmarket group1 win, goes well on the likely ground, and has a cracking trainer who seems to think he’s worth his place in the line. His price is no worry as Saoirse Abu and Lush Lashes both ran better in the 1000 last season than their prices suggested they would IMO.

Cityscape 20-1

– who IMO didnt move through the ground on saturday as he did over the top of it last year in the royal lodge. Looks a classy sort, both on pedigree and on the track and a decent e/w shot, connections where very happy with how he got on on saturday and so they clearly think there is improvement with him before the guineas.

Lord Shanakill @ 33-1

– Mill Reef winner and strong finishing Dewhurst second who should love the ground and should get the trip, not badly priced at all, a largely tough and consistent improver who threw in 5 performances of over 100 on the RPRs, including a 3rd in the coventry, a 3rd in the group1 prix morny and beaten a nose in the Dewhurst. Seemed to be getting better as the season went on and looks a very likely candidate for this, a big price because he is from a smaller yard (in terms of the group1 landscape), but definitely worth his price, as on the ratings he is already shown the form to win a weak Guineas and is only a few lbs off winning an avergae one.

I think this race is still very much exciting but may become boring if you wait until the day and more of the field are pulled up, as IMO those 3 shouldnt be the prices they are, with how open the race looks, and as everything stands at the minute and are likely to be slashed further by the day of the guineas.

IMO last years guineas was a strong renewal, but this years looks a fairly average one, it does look a bit stronger than the 2005 one but even that was a good race. There are some potentially very smart horses amongst the line up, and the greenham on saturday was the strongest looking line up I can remember.

The weakest guineas I can remember was the 2005 one but even though the winner was subsequently injuredm it still threw up dubawi, oratorio and david junior. There are few of the guineas contenders who on juvenile ratings are already better than FSITSs winning performance, so IMO there looks to be a decent race on the cards and it is the openess of the race that makes it more exciting.

Much as liked watching George Washingtons guineas win, he was no bet for me. Winter guineas favorites have a terrible record in the guineas so it is fair to say that it is unusual for the guineas winner to stand out like a sore thumb before the race.

Haafhd was 33-1 etc before his craven run in 2004 (got 6-1 on him on the day but cant remember what SP was), footsteps was 33-1 before fallon chose him in 2005 (got 7s on him on the day), GW was winter fav, Cockney Rebel was 25s or 33s on the day of the guineas, Henrythenavigator was 25-1 over the winter before his guineas run and started at 14s.

IMO Crowded House and Mastercraftsman never really overly appealed to me a great deal as guineas horses anyway, so the fact that one has been withdrawn and the other is looking unfancied makes little odds to the complection of how Ive always seen the race, and still looks a bloody good race.

Have faith fists, on the RPRs there is quality there

Mastercraftsman 120
Intense Focus 118
Lord Shanakill 118
Finjaan 118
Shaweel (if he runs) 118
Arazan 115
Delegator 114
Rip Van Winkle 114
Cityscape 112
Evasive 108

Theres some strength in depth there and I would be genuinely surprised if there isnt a guineas winner on about 120 out of that lot, which is a perfectly average guineas winning performance IMO. IMO Delegator looked fairly green when getting his 114 rating in the craven last week.

You may surprised Fists, there are a good 10 or so horses in the likely line up that are rated 110-120 going into the race and about 5 or 6 rated 118 or better which would suggest it is actually a pretty strong guineas.

Of the last 5 or 6 winners of the race that I can think of, only George Washington was the obvious selection going into the race, even henry who IMO was one of the best recent winners was a long price in the run up and still a decent price when starting. Winter favs have a terrible record in this race, and it is not unusual for a few shortish prices to drop out beforehand.

I say give it a chance as it still has the potential to be a cracker and the openess of the race means its an exciting one to boot.

The way I would see those Aragorn is:

Mastercraftsman 120

– just never looked top class to me, I thought at the time of his phoenix win that it was a strange race, and for me it was the most surprising result I saw last season. Subsequently, the form didnt work out.

Intense Focus 118

My only concern with him is that he may be a 7f- 1mile type, and this race generally favours 1m-1m2f types, but he definitely has some class about him and group1 form, represents an in form top trainer, wouldnt write off.

Lord Shanakill 118

Very exciting prospect, was campaigned mostly in the thought he was a sprinter last season but dont think he really is, think he could be a 1mile-1m2f type, and he was running strongly on at the end of the Dewhurst, if he comes back in that sort of form, and its gd-fm I think he’s the one to beat really. If AOB trained him he’d be 5-1 or shorter.

Finjaan 118

One who I strongly suspect is a 6-7f type and IMO wants good ground to show his best, if he gets good ground I dont think he’ll see out the mile as well as some of the others. Oppose

Shaweel (if he runs) 118

– Would have a great chance if the ground was good, the pace is strong and he comes back to last seasons sort of form

Arazan 115

– Think he too would like good ground to show his best, and had excuses on heavy ground last season, but wouldnt write off.

Delegator 114

– On recent form he’s the one to beat and Brian Meehan is very bullish about him. After the way he acted on gd-fm in the craven I suspect he too wants good ground, but he still ran really well on gd-fm, and looks sure to put in a solid performance on the day.

Rip Van Winkle 114

– One Im not too sure about, think he looks to want the same conditions pacewise as cityscape think if AOB tries to set the race up for him, cityscape and lord shanakill will beat him on gd-fm, and delegator and shaweel will beat him on good. But trainer is his only plus, how big a plus people see that to be will dictate whether he is a bet or not IMO, I suppose another possible plus is that Galileos usually improve from 2 to 3, but usually they improve for a step up to middle distances, and even New Approach lost most of his dominance whilst staying at a mile.

Cityscape 112

– Has to improve but looks like a decent sort for this race, moves well on gd-fm and good ground, and looks like a decent 1m-1m2f type in the making. Has a good chance IMO.

Evasive 108

– Very likeable sort for this race, but had a training setback. Connections seem to reckon he’s back to his best but he has only done light work. If he fails in this through lack of fitness he could be a decent one for the St James Palace.

Mastercraftsman 120 – just never looked top class to me, I thought at the time of his phoenix win that it was a strange race, and for me it was the most surprising result I saw last season. Subsequently, the form didnt work out.

Mastercraftsman and Bushranger won 3 Group 1’s between them subsequent to the Phoenix. How didn’t the form work out?

Well here we go.

Mstercraftsman was rated 120 for beating what was supposedly an in form Coventry winner- Art Connoiseur. Anyone with eyes could see that Art Connoiseur did not run his race that day. He subsequently proved to have lost his way completely as the season went on. Bushranger, even if you buy the 120 rating, completely failed to run his race taht day, and subsequently proved much better. Mastercraftsman, struggled against shaweel in the National stakes before being swallowed up and easily beaten in the Prix Jean Luc, at no point upholding his rating of 120.

Thus the form of his phoenix win did not work out.