- This topic has 463 replies, 66 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 6 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Naaqoos could win by 10l in Paris tomorrow pulling a ton of snails!
Newmarket on good fast ground and he will be the snail!He could beat a Clydesdale pulling a cart at M-L and the bookies won’t care – he’ll be 3/1 on Friday night.
Am not entirely sure I agree with that GW, the ground at Longchamp hwne he beat Mastercraftsman was reported to be quite fm, with a lose top layer and he went very well. His sire has mostly done better so far with his gd-fm runners as Ive seen it.
Theres a fair chance he’ll like Newmarket just as well as anything else.
He looks the perfect type for the race. Think I’ll take a little bit of betfreds 7s before the off.
Reference Delegator. I think there nothing really to suggest that he isnt any better than Crowded House, after all Delegator was Meehans Dewhurst horse, and ran a decent race.
Have just also had a go on Delegator at 40-1 with Victor Chandlers before that goes, thats three of my shortlist are shortening at the minute.
That 40-1 is now starting to look good with him going 10-1 best price now.
IMO Crowded House was just the right horse for last years RPT, and that may have thrown a few people. IMO the ground came up better than usual in last years RPT and Crowded House was the only really half decent 7f horse on hand to capitalise. His turn of foot therefore was made to look that bit more impressive because he was beating horses who were comparitively one paced.
Bul, the last time i saw a horse with his action, was at Chatsworth House
and it was in a Dressage competition!Bul, the last time i saw a horse with his action, was at Chatsworth House
and it was in a Dressage competition!Which horse? If you mean Naaqoos then you surely cant feel too confident with Mastercraftsman, having seen him annihilated by a horse with a dressage action…
We’ll get a better idea of Naqoos tomorrow I suspect.
I have sever doubts if GWilson has actually looked at Mastercraftsman’s form.
Obviously basing his claim the horse needs fast ground on the fact he was beat in France and he looked impressive when beating AC.
I say looked but the fact is the form was let down badly when AC got totally stuffed by Shaweel who MC struggled to beat seems to have slipped past him as has the fact the only time there was any confidence behind MC was in France with give in the ground. That aside AC prior to that race AC beat Intense Focus and it was to be 4 months later before he showed any worthwhile form. The 3rd in MC’s race was said to ran below his best as the race had come just a bit too soon after his previous win.
MC has been flat to the boards to win two of his races. The Form of the race in France runs almost spot on with the form in the UK using Shaweel’s performances as a guide. Only once has he shown form that could be considered guineas standard at that is questionable.
This is no world beater, this is a false favourite who will most liely not win the guineas. He is certainly not outstanding according to AOB who said today he wouldn’t like to put his in pecking order.
The bookies are taking the punters for a ride with this one and it sticks out like a sore thumb.
This is one bad lot of 3 year olds in comparison to last year and Freddy Head can see right throught it hence he is sendding his horse over to take his chance despite the poor record of the French.
Bul, the last time i saw a horse with his action, was at Chatsworth House
and it was in a Dressage competition!Which horse? If you mean Naaqoos then you surely cant feel too confident with Mastercraftsman, having seen him annihilated by a horse with a dressage action…
We’ll get a better idea of Naqoos tomorrow I suspect.
BUL, if you think for one minute that the Mastercraftsman that was beaten
by Naaqoos in Paris was giving his true running then i"m afraid you fall into
the Clueless category that Fisty rules extroadinaire! The Master can handle any ground, Naaqoos really doesn"t want it fast!I have sever doubts if GWilson has actually looked at Mastercraftsman’s form.
Obviously basing his claim the horse needs fast ground on the fact he was beat in France and he looked impressive when beating AC.
I say looked but the fact is the form was let down badly when AC got totally stuffed by Shaweel who MC struggled to beat seems to have slipped past him as has the fact the only time there was any confidence behind MC was in France with give in the ground. That aside AC prior to that race AC beat Intense Focus and it was to be 4 months later before he showed any worthwhile form. The 3rd in MC’s race was said to ran below his best as the race had come just a bit too soon after his previous win.
MC has been flat to the boards to win two of his races. The Form of the race in France runs almost spot on with the form in the UK using Shaweel’s performances as a guide. Only once has he shown form that could be considered guineas standard at that is questionable.
This is no world beater, this is a false favourite who will most liely not win the guineas. He is certainly not outstanding according to AOB who said today he wouldn’t like to put his in pecking order.
The bookies are taking the punters for a ride with this one and it sticks out like a sore thumb.
This is one bad lot of 3 year olds in comparison to last year and Freddy Head can see right throught it hence he is sendding his horse over to take his chance despite the poor record of the French.
What about this bit of form then Numbnuts "Bushranger beats Naaqoos by
5l and Mastercraftsman beats Bushranger by 5l, take that literally if you
lack scope to dissect form and put it in your pipe and smoke on that!Wilson, you have no idea whether he will be better or worse on quick ground. His breeding suggests he’ll be fine and despite what you’re saying, I see no reason why his long stride won’t be just as effective on quick ground. Mastercraftsman will be effective on any ground and you have to say that the formlines involving these two make them worthy first and second favourites.
Having said all that though I think both of them should be opposed. As Fist said I think this is a poor crop and something could improve past them (Mastercraftsman was a forward 2yo, O’Brien has said that) a la Cockney Rebel.
I had a little nibble at Westphalia a while ago as I think the formlines with Donativum are as strong as the Mastercraftsman/Naaqoos lines. Unfortunately he looks to be heading to France.
I also like Finjaan a lot but can’t believe he’ll get the mile unless it’s lightning quick, so I couldn’t back him until the day and only under those circumstances.
Delegator was the only other one I was interested but his price is too short now.
All in all a depressing betting proposition!!
Wilson, you have no idea whether he will be better or worse on quick ground. His breeding suggests he’ll be fine and despite what you’re saying, I see no reason why his long stride won’t be just as effective on quick ground.
Well Aragorn i have never seen a horse with such a pronounced round action that would prefer fast ground to soft! Naaqoos will be hitting the ground hard coming into the dip at Newmarket and he will be hitting a wall
coming out of it! I hope he is 3/1 fav tomorrow night because i will be laying him at that price! SAL will tell you his stamina will have to come from his mother!!The thing with Mastercraftsman is that he has produced 1 performance that looked genuine G1 class when beating AC in Ireland. That is just one run and one run can flatter any horse.
Naaqoos has arguably as good two year old form as anything but again his reputation is based largely on one run as is Crowded House’s.
I can’t remember a Guineas that is so open. If you back anything is has to be either on reputation or a hunch.
I think if you want a decent priced e/w shout in the Guineas you could do a lot worse than Cityscape at 25-1. Looks a very likely type on pedigree and ultimately looks like more of a 1m2f type for this season.
However, horses who get 1m2f have a very good record in the 2000 guineas, a la Hawkwing, Refuse To Bend, Haafhd, Grey Swallow, Azamour, Oratorio, Sir Percy, Duke Of Marmalade, Eagle Mountain, Henrythenavigator, New Approach, Ravens Pass, (footsteps would probably have got 1m2f fairly well and Golan got further than 1m2f), who all went well at Newmarket on guineas day.
Cityscape would look like a good value option as everything stands as although he was only campaigned at 1mile last season, which is usually a negative for me, he looked to have plenty of class at the distance (and looked like he really could have competed in a decent grade at 7f), he handles any ground that is likely at newmarket and should run a very good race.
He hit the front too soon in the Royal Lodge and was collared on the line by a similarly classy looking staying machine in the form of jukebox jury, but the furious pace in that race meant that it had all the hallmarks of a "get a second chance" race
Looking at the 2,000 guineas betting, delegator would be more strongly fancied one to win the Craven but it’s no done deal and cityscape has seen enough money in the market to suggest that he is fancied. Even if delegator comes out top in the Craven next week I would be genuinely surprised if Cityscape doesnt go well.
IMO at 25-1 he looks a very good type to take to newmarket, and looks a very nice prospect to be sat at such a big price in an open looking race. The Royal Lodge generally isnt where you would look for the guineas winner, but then two years ago, in a similarly wide open guineas, the main 2yo form came from the Champagne Stakes if I remember.
BUL, if you think for one minute that the Mastercraftsman that was beaten
by Naaqoos in Paris was giving his true running then i"m afraid you fall into
the Clueless category that Fisty rules extroadinaire! The Master can handle any ground, Naaqoos really doesn"t want it fast!If you’re a clockwatcher, Mastercraftsman produced his best performance of his 2-Y-0 season when beaten by Naaqoos in France , so there is a possibilty that O’Brien’s colt was beaten fair and square ( for what it’s worth ,rolling out the one-race-too-many theory for the Ballydoyle colt hints at lazy form study ,imho ) . And, judging by current odds, if any one wants to back Mastercraftsman – or Rip Van Winkle , for that matter – Ladbrokes will gladly take your money : always an ominous sign.
I wouldn’t take too much notice of the times on Arc day – there was a horrendous cross/tail wind for the first part of the day.
Is Bushranger running in this? I can’t see on pedigree why he can’t stay a mile, though I see he has an entry in the Duke of York Stakes at the Dante meeting.
I’ve added him to my portfolio – £2 @ 200.
edit: And Gordon, it doesn’t matter that he isn’t good enough – everyone else is saying this is a bad crop of 3yos.
Are we flooring Mastercraftsman since he was a very forward 2YO and thus his form should "top" prior to Newmarket? See Henrythenavigator.
I think his form remains too inconclusive to wager @ 5/1 and you can do a lot better, but he is a live chance.
Big frustrations as I scan the markets this evening – at nice prices I’ve considered investments on Orizaba, Ashram and Shaweel. Now, I’ve withdrawn that interest.
Why? What do they all have in common?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.