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I’ve given up trying to understand why horses drift or contract on Betfair- I reckon it’s a bit like the stock market and all sorts of sentiment, momentum trading and bot betting play a part. If a horse hits my value price, I’ll back it- some of my best wins have been on drifters, including a horse called Anchors Away which I backed at 80 only to see freely offered at 240 at the off (S.P. 100/1) before making all.
the skill I want to develop is knowing how to get the best price- it’s not easy!alan1
If i’d seen what you’ve seen , i wouldn’t comment, because I’ve given up on commenting on such things as i find you are seen as a pocket talking muppet by a lot of others m8
Send an email to BHA and ask them look into it, but don’t expect anything to come of it
As TDK would say, there is always one.
No matter how obvious the real reasons are that the horse is being opposed, it’s always some obscure facet of the horse’s profile (some obscure small sample breeding stat, trainer form, some minor difference to its optimum conditions, a track bias from the first couple of races on the card etc etc) that someone has latched onto and is now backing his opinion for large amounts at any price with overwhelming confidence. Good Grief.
Does anyone know who Mrs B Ramsden is?
Namroud did not have the ideal prep for a 7f seller, last run on the flat was 265 days ago. His last 3 runs were over hurdles which may have blunted his speed. 7f may not be long enough for him nowadays as he is a 9yo and it is 30 months since he last ran at the trip
No-one (who had a sufficiently large betfair balance anyway) could have possible laid Namroud at these rates and stakes on the basis that there were doubts about the sire’s progeny acting on the track. The horse had form here that would have easily been good enough to win this.
Someone was clearly very confident the horse was going to perform significantly below his best and the ride on the horse didn’t do much to subdue the conspiracy theorists.
Alan,
I’ve watched the video several times and the fact is that Namroud didn’t start well ~ he pitched forward as the stalls opened and was unbalanced. His loss of momentum immediately afterwards was because of that and not due to any action on behalf of the jockey.
My opinion at Southwell is that horses drawn right on the inside are at a big disadvantage in races of 6f to a mile. If you miss the kick you are in trouble and if you get away reasonably well you are constantly harried by horses on your outside while the fastest strip in the straight is up the middle. Over longer distances it’s possible to set a steadier tempo and move wide off the turn but in competitive races at a mile or less it’s very difficult to shake loose. I would have been a big layer of Namroud in the place market at odds on if I’d bothered to switch on my PC.
Maybe the BHA should adopt a similar process to what has took place here. Respected individuals like those who have commented here are asked to give their thoughts on a suspected wrong doing and the majority verdict should stand
Good job this wasn’t a big drifter for a trainer who is thought of as being dodgy otherwise it would have looked most suspicious.
IMO
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