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1:40 Southwell – Namroud!!

Home Forums Tipping and Research Trends, Research And Notebooks 1:40 Southwell – Namroud!!

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  • #6172
    alan1
    Member
    • Total Posts 167

    I will allow you to draw your own conclusions, but this horse appeared to break excellently from stalls and then after a stride was stopped to a complete halt before being pushed along again.

    Drifted from 2s to 4s!! Did somebody know something?

    #133674
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1981

    Gamble landed!

    #133675
    Charlie D
    Member
    • Total Posts 500

    Gamble landed!

    Would that not go someway to explaining the drift of Namroud???

    #133687
    Tony25
    Member
    • Total Posts 327

    Their was nothing wrong with the ride, the winner won comfortably and their where hardly any hardly luck stories!!

    #133691
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Their was nothing wrong with the ride, the winner won comfortably and their where hardly any hardly luck stories!!

    Tony, I think you’re slightly missing the point. There was indeed, nothing much wrong with the ride, the horse simply ran a stinker.

    I think the dubious thing about it is that the horse was 5/4 tissue, it was best priced 13/8 early doors, it opened 2/1 and it drifted to 4/1 before running a stinker.

    I’m not saying anything was wrong at all, but a horse that was running in a lower class than usual and had a great form chance – well, someone out there knew it was going to run a stinker – but then again, is there anything wrong with that?

    Mike

    #133692
    Charlie D
    Member
    • Total Posts 500

    Mikky

    Millville went from 2.5 to 4.0 BF yesterday and returned an amazing SP of 9-4 from an earlier price of 6-4

    Why?? Because Polish Power was well backed

    I think you may find the exact same scenario has taken place here, but people are interpreting it as dodgy, when there is probably nothing iffy going on at all

    #133695
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Mikky

    Millville went from 2.5 to 4.0 BF yesterday and returned an amazing SP of 9-4 from an earlier price of 6-4

    Why?? Because Polish Power was well backed

    I think you may find the exact same scenario has taken place here, but people are interpreting it as dodgy, when there is probably nothing iffy going on at all

    I totally agree Charlie, and I certainly aren’t interpreting it as dodgy (not saying you have accused me of this), hence why I said, "I’m not saying anything was wrong at all" and "Is there anything wrong with that".

    I was just stating some factual information that could easily be interpreted as looking ‘dubious’ for want of a better word. When a horse is rock solid at 13/8 all morning, but then drifts to 4/1 five minutes before the race prior to running a stinker – can you blame anyone for interpreting it as dubious?

    Mike

    #133696
    bluechariot
    Member
    • Total Posts 569

    Sire Stats for Irish River at Southwell are 0/28 for all runners and 0/7 when fancied. Now 0/28.
    No surprise that Namroud did not perform on the track.

    #133697
    Charlie D
    Member
    • Total Posts 500

    Sire Stats for Irish River at Southwell are 0/28 for all runners and 0/7 when fancied. Now 0/28.
    No surprise that Namroud did not perform on the track.

    So the stats people will have been all over Namroud like a rash and probably causing it to drift also

    #133698
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Sire Stats for Irish River at Southwell are 0/28 for all runners and 0/7 when fancied. Now 0/28.
    No surprise that Namroud did not perform on the track.

    And that could be an excellent stat behind the reason why Namroud drifted.

    Well done BC, you get the award for ‘stat of the day’ :lol:

    Mike

    #133700
    Charlie D
    Member
    • Total Posts 500

    You’ve now got two reasons for a horses price to drift

    Anyone got any others? perhaps momentum traders jumping on the back of the stats layers

    Add together the gamble on the other horse , the stats people laying, momentum traders trading and you have the reason for the drift with nothing iffy going on at all

    #133702
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Come on Charlie D. You know better than that!

    #133706
    Charlie D
    Member
    • Total Posts 500

    Come on Charlie D. You know better than that!

    Smithy, apologies, i should have stated, I’m not commenting on this particular case.

    I’m giving general reasons that could have caused a drift and how these can easily be misinterpreted by us all

    #133707
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Of course. And given it was a Southwell seller, we shouldn’t be overly surprised by volatile markets. However, to quote sire stats etc when the horse had already proven himself perfectly effective on the surface – a third place in a 0-85 handicap enough evidence? – seems a bit wide of the mark.

    Even allowing for the gamble on Louisiade (the same Louisiade who drifted similarly last time), people would need to have been fairly certain the horse had something amiss to lay it at 9/2+ against that opposition.

    PS It wasn’t just Louisiade that was well backed – but in a market where the jolly is rotten, no surprise that there were a few shorten up.

    #133708
    Charlie D
    Member
    • Total Posts 500

    Smithy

    People do act on stats like those though, but your post shows why they are of limited use :D

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