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Okay, lets have a little fun.
Anyone can enter. We can each have 100 lives, just like when we played Chase The Ace with 3 lives in the Sixth Form just before the register being taken. I suppose if we were serious about making money out of this, we should only have 60 lives, but some of us will be using this as a learning experience.
Rules are: selections have to be on horses, before the off. None of this in-play malarkey.
If a horse is 100 on betfair, that counts, even though it is only 99/1.
We’ll run it to the end of the year, which might be a little unfair as it is forcing us to make an average of more than 2 selections per week.
If you pick a winner, you only get a 100 more lives, no matter how big the price.
I suppose a horse can only be nominated by one player.The point about this thread, is that people can make selections that they might be too embarrassed to mention in a different thread. For example, I wasn’t too keen on mentioning Pemberton on the Triumph Hurdle thread.
My first batch are all ante-post.
Blue Bajan. I’ve already mentioned this on the Classic Champion Hurdle thread. Still available at 110 on Betfair. Someone has taken the 150 since last night. Wasn’t me – I’m content to win £4,800.
Pemberton – Triumph Hurdle. Still available at 210. To be honest, I was looking for a horse that would stay longer than the mother-in-law for the Aurelius Hurdle [edit: this should read Finesse Hurdle – I don’t know what part of my brain Aurelius came from. I’ve done a seach, and apparently there isn’t one with that name.] on Saturday. But I thought what the hell, I’ll do him for the Triumph as well. I am sacrificing here, as the prices aren’t available for Saturday yet, and you lot might get in there before me.
Ponmeoath – Grand National. For once in my life, I have decided to stick my neck out, and now have this to 5 figures. If it ain’t being aimed at the GN, why is it pfaffing around in hurdle races? It says 100, but there is £1 or so of 230 left.
State Of Play – Grand National. 170. Is only 5lbs higher than when winning the Hennessy.
Running total: 4 lives in the balance.
I’ll tell the story of how I picked Dark Tara. To be honest, I was bored, drinking a few cans, and having a few bets on betfair, even though I don’t have ATR or Racing UK. I must have been coming into form as a punter, because I’d just had the 2nd and 3rd in the Bumper at Musselburgh.
I am normally a Spring Punter, coming into form in April and May, being useless the rest of the year.
I was first drawn to the horse because it was ridden by Hanagan. I don’t know how good he is as a jockey, because I’m not into that sort of thing, but he always looks impressive when he rides a winner.
The alarm bells started ringing when the RP analysis mentioned that the odds-on favourite and the second favourite were old adversaries. If they had been going hammer and tongs at each other, then the OH had them in his grasp. They were ripe to be mugged by another horse.
DT hadn’t had many runs, had been off for 11 months from Oct 07 to Sept 08. Then had another run in December , I think. All her runs had been over 6f, and she was now stepping up to 7f and 30 yards I think. This put the RP commentator off, but it made me interested. Despite her having a sibling sprinter both her Sire and Damsire had much longer Average Winning Distances for their progeny.
The real icing on the cake, was that the RP mentioned that she had been restricted to running on Soft and Heavy. I had been reading Nick Mordin’s website the previous evening, where he mentioned that polytrack was the surface that caused the least pain to horses legs or tootsies or whatever. DT had had one race on polytrack, and now knew that it wouldn’t hurt her. Her handicap rating had dropped from 80 as a 2yo to 60.
If I’d been a bit more flush, I ought to have put more on, shouldn’t have I?
I suppose that it really helped that the 2nd favourite or whatever was withdrawn, and that at the end of the race commentary on the RP website it said Quinn rode a shocker.100/1 winners are few and far between Gerald, Ive had a few, and put one up on the forum in february but dont think you can set out with the intention of finding a 100/1 winner.
Best to just look at races as you normally would and if there is a 100-1 shot who you think has a good chance under your normal betting style then have a go on it e/w otherwise you’ll end up well out of pocket and the 100/1 winner will come at a price.
Not only that but this would be the longest thread in history, and as it is purely a thread for selections would be better in the lays and plays than in the horse racing section.
Okay, it can be moved.
I know about the problem about deliberately looking for big priced winners.
Good thred Gerald – Carry on with it…
I’ll put up Nozic as a GC outsider. Currently 170 on bf (For £2)
Don’t lose the faith Gerald, I back 100-1 shots all the time and collected on Silver Jaro at 110 in the County last year- it can be done!
Good thred Gerald – Carry on with it…
I’ll put up Nozic as a GC outsider. Currently 170 on bf (For £2)
I guess today explains why he was 170
Throw that one in the bin.You’ve got 99 left.
I never gave up supporting England in the Headingley Test, 1981, so maybe you’ve still got 100.
I still hold out a chance for Pemberton to come good. Because I worked overtime today, I never got around to making a bet.
Okay, I did a little bit of research on this a couple of evenings ago. I’m halfway through the turf season, but I’ll keep that to myself.
I was surprised at how few big-priced winners there are on the AW. I suppose it is the small fields.
Presumably, most of the big-priced winners are in hurdle races, but I never look at those kinds of races.
Here are the 5 winners priced 40/1 or bigger Jan-March 2007
2 Jan Southwell 1m6f H’cap Tioga Gold 125/1 LR James Russell Kennemore (5)
12 Feb Wolv 1m4f Mdn Theatre Groom 50/1 MR Bosley George Baker
19 Feb Ling 7f Mdn Hatherden 50/1 RA Kvisla Brett Doyle
6 Mar Southwell 7f H’cap Government 66/1 MC Chapman Nicoli Polli (5)
19 Mar Southwell 1m 3yo Sell H’cap Raven Rascal 66/1 JF Coupland Patrick Mathers (3)
Only 2 winners 40/1+ on AW, Jan-March 2008
2 Feb Lingfield 5f 3yo Mdn Stoneacre Pat 40/1 Peter Grayson George Baker
3 March Wolv 6f 3yo Seller Mujinda 40/1 M Brittain Jimmy Quinn
Strikingly, 3+ of these 7 are owner-trained or trainer-owned, depending on the way you look at it
Tioga Gold Trained LR James Owned LR James Ltd
Raven Rascal Trained JF Coupland Owned JF Coupland
Mujinda Trained M Brittain Owned Mel BrittainHere is the +
Stoneacre Pat Trained Peter Grayson Owned R Teatum & Mrs S Grayson
I suppose the trainer keeps his own counsel, and doesn’t have an owner who blabs to all his mates about how they should get on his horse next time.
Of course, we can’t bet blind on all big-priced, owner-trained horses. (Or maybe we can – but how do we easily carry out the research?) We can certainly take a greater interest in a big-priced owner-trained horse.
Anyway, here are the profiles of the 7 horses.
TIOGA GOLD
Course winner 8f 10 Dec 2001. First race for 3 months. (Also won 13 months later 25/1 same C&D, same handicap mark.) Wore a tt in its previous race, when it was reluctant to race.THEATRE GROOM
Had won a bumper 3 and a half years earlier. 2nd race on AW. 2nd race on Flat. First race for 67 days.HATHERDEN
3rd race. 1st race on AW. First race for 5 months. Had been gelded and switched stables in the meantime.GOVERNMENT
Had previously won a Mdn Claimer C&D a year earlier. Had run 18 days earlier, but had had a 2 month break before that. Usual style of racing on the Flat is to lead, or be prominent.RAVEN RASCAL
5th run, and 3rd on AW. Had had 3 quick runs in June, a 9 month break, then ran 6 days previously. First attempt at 8f.STONEACRE PAT
Trainer had 6 entries in race. 3rd run, all on AW. Had run twice in Dec, then had a 42 day break. First attempt at 5 furlongs.MUJINDA
Third race on AW, at monthly intervals. Brought back to 6f. Usually close up or had chased leaders, then weakened.I think I have a fair idea of what I’m looking for, and what to avoid.
First of all, don’t worry about (recent) form – there oughtn’t to be any.
The horses to avoid are those that have been regularly racing every 2-4 weeks or so at the same trip.
The horses to be interested in are those that are having their 1st, 2nd or 3rd run on AW, or their 1st, 2nd or 3rd run after a break. Change of trainer, change of distance, change of headgear (including not now having any).
I was also originally thinking that big-priced winners won’t have a turn of foot, so the thing to do would be to look for the ones that run prominently, but I have come across a couple of horses that have come from behind.
I’ve been watching the racing on betfair in the past couple of days, much as in the old days people used to watch the football on Ceefax or Teletext.
I’m thinking that if say I put £2 on to win at 120, I can then arrange to have an offer to lay off at 10 and perhaps 5 in-running It would be £18 to £2 at 10 and say £16 to £4 at 5. I think I can pick enough horses that can run well without winning, so as to bring in money to counteract when the bets are taken on winning horses. How does this look as a betting strategy?
Gerald
I’ve just had a 100/1 bet on River Liane for the Champion Hurdle just in case he wins today…
Hi Gerald.
Couple of comments. Anyone backing outsiders on the AW as a system or a lynchpin strategy in the last two years must now be living in a skip.
I think last year, Southwell favs ran at around forty to fifty percent for most of the winter and Lingers wasn’t far behind. The reasons for this have been discussed ad nauseam on the board and generally, because of Betfair, the market is as efficient as a Tokyo production line on the sand. No point setting one up for a Tioga Gold style coup on a regular basis – hence the rarity you’ve noticed. The jungle drums would beat 24 hours in advance and anyway, you can get the liquidity you need on a fancied horse to make a punt worthwhile.
Regarding Government. The gelding is a spring horse from a generally low strike rate often derided stable. David Ashforth (a brilliant writer whose weakness is an unwarranted bitchy streak), once piled into Michael Chapman as a poor trainer. Over the years, horses from this yard with good chances have gone off at massive prices. For example, you missed Axis Shield last year which won at 50/1 and was available at 100 on bf. The market doesn’t seem to trust his training ability.
Government is worth keeping in mind.There are ten meetings at the sandpit in March and six in April. Trainer Mr Chapman has said on several occasions that Government is a spring horse and he said openly that he wasn’t in the least bit surprised at the win you’ve researched. Several people I go racing with at the sandpit are convinced that Government will begin to blossom soon as he did, from out of the blue, in 2007. A recent front running selling hurdle race at Market Rasen indicates that the horse retains enthusiasm, if not much ability; (though as you are no doubt aware, having a relative lack of ability is not necessarily a barrier to winning at Southwell).
Additionally, Mr Chapman has had a dreadful six months even by his micro-strike rate standards so Government has not been expected Some of the stable horses have run more encouragingly lately.
March/April. 7f. Class 6/7, Southwell, an easy lead/low draw and a less testing than normal surface (which appears to be a problem at Southwell since the flood, so all this might be nonsense), appear to be the horses conditions. These were the conditions which led to the 66/1 victory.
I don’t think you’ll get 100/1 – the Latvian and Estonian figure-layers who used to offer huge prices on Betfair about horses with chances, appear to have disappeared and the "bookmakers" in this country are parsimonious about outsiders to the point of larceny – but you might get 33 at some point.
Good luck with the thread. But please, stick to the two quids. I can attest to skips being a bit nippy this winter.
To join in the fun – I’ve got 2 quid @ 110 on Isla Peral Fisher in the next at Ayr – not time to explain at present
Hi Maxilon
I’ve got Axis Shield written down – it is just that I restricted this publicly revealed research to Jan-March 2007 & 2008.
Chapman combined with the owner-trainer angle I mentioned by winning with Dancing Wave 25/1 2 Jan 09. Trained MC Chapman. Owned Mrs M Chapman. I presume that is the missus or the mother. 3rd ever run AW. Had had a 3 month break Sept-Dec, and had then run 6 days before.
Don’t worry about the £2s.
[edit: I’ve just checked my Betfair P&L since I resumed betting the day before the Hennessy (last 3 months actually). If I bet £2 every day between now and Cheltenham AND all my Cheltenham bets go down, my P&L will be at breakeven. I only need Blue Bajan to place in the first 3 to pay for all my other Cheltenham bets. It won’t take a serious nosedive into the red unless I mess-up the Grand National.]
Gerald
Okay, I’m ready to roll.
I’m posting up the first one 26 hours in advance
Weetfromthechaff 8.50 Wolverhampton, Friday evening, RP forecast 33/1
Was off course March 08 to Jan 09, and has run twice in the past month. I would have preferred more than a 9 day break since the last race.
He is only 5lbs lower than his top AW rating, which is a pity as I’d have preferred more.
Jockey has yet to ride a winner, but he managed to switch a horse in a Seller without losing momentum.
Is drawn 13 from 13, which also isn’t ideal.
What I like is that the horse is running over 9.5 furlongs, after mainly being campaigned over 6 or 7. Here is what the RP post-race Analysis said after the 7f race last week: "A drop back to sprinting looks the call for him."
The horse might be called a home-bred – by Weet-A-Minute, out of Weet Ees Girl.
Hoping to get 250.
Was looking at your analysis and thought you might be interested in this result http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Res … 58,00.html
Sure, not a 100/1 winner, but yet another horse Trainer Owned who had no form whatsoever in first 3 runs and then wins at 33’s having opened at 40’s, would be very interested to see if anyone could find the Betfair transactions for this raceHi Kaaskop
I’m just beginning a short study of owner-trained and owner-bred horses in the Trends, Research & Notebook section. I suppose I am investigating the angle that the people involved are in it for the long-term, and haven’t just bought a horse to brag about it to their mates. Consequently, there shouldn’t be a market plunge driving the horse’s odds down when it is likely to win.
For the various owners, trainers involved, I’ll bring up their statistics from the Racing Post database, to see if anything worthwhile can be learnt.
{edit: I am also including in the study, horses owned by married couples. Presumably, they’ll be quite rich, or the expense of a racehorse will lead to arguments about money, and a divorce. The bloke won’t brag about the horse, because men are more interested in sex than money. (The difference between the sexes.) He knows, that if the horse wins, he is on to a sure thing that night.)
I am a bit ignorant, so there may be a few people who already know this stuff.
Gerald
Throw that one in the bin.
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