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Interesting to note that the winners of the two Newmarket trials, the Craven and the Nell Gwyn both tanked in their respective Guineas. Were the trials too close to the real thing? If I had a smart three year old I would not be running it in either race given the stats and closeness of the two races. On the other hand, perhaps both horses were overrated anyway!
I did like Toronado, and I think from the way he flopped that he was a tired horse. Hope he gets a wee break now and comes back out later this season at G2/3 level to regain some confidence.
I was at Newmarket for the Guineas meeting and couldn’t believe the difference in Sky Lantern in the paddock from her turn out in the Nell Gwyn. In paddock before the Nell Gwyn she looked big and burly and she was shouldering a 3lb penalty for a Group win last year.
In the race Richard Hughes was too easy on her at the finish and was caught out by the fast finishing Hot Snap.Today a different Sky Lantern turned up the paddock, she had lost all the excess weight, she looked fit and ready it was really a noticeable difference. Without the 3lb penalty and the extra weight she was able to wear down Just the Judge just before the line and take the race, it was a brilliant ride by Richard Hughes.
Hot Snap was extremely disappointing and Sir Henry Cecil was standing quite near to us close to the winning post watching the race, he looked very disappointed walking back to the stables I think he had expected her to win, he had a blank day today.
Well done to Sky Lantern, wonder if I could get the number of her fitness trainer
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Quite surprised that Moth rather than Just The Judge was subsequently made favourite for the Oaks. Having said that today’s Racing Post suggests that the runner-up is likely to be kept at a mile. It seems the owner has something of a speed obsession and I suspect he is very much calling the shots. There is little doubt she can perform creditably at a mile but you only have to look at her style of racing and the current ante-post market to see that she would be passing up a great opportunity to win the Epsom Classic.
I think that Moth’s breeding is more suggestive of a 12f horse and, given her inexperience is open to more improvement? Could Hot Snap have just been caught out by the ground? Do any Pivotals act on firm surfaces?
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I haven’t looked at the pedigrees in any great depth. Moth did show plenty of speed in breaking her maiden and as usual O’Brien did make reference to her speed rather than stamina before the race. She did have the advantage of race fitness over the second and personally I am wary of horses running on at the death having never been competitive. Having said that if Just The Judge is being pushed in a different direction the market is correct.
Wasn’t it just Frankel that broke the mould of Galileos not being fast enough to win a Guineas? I’m still learning at this and getting a lot of horses mixed up in the process but I find the Guineas intriguing from a breeding point of view. If I kept my notes in better order I’d make more sense of it, perhaps
Just the Judge was my biggest ante-post bet of the year and I backed her at 20/1, win only, I also tipped her up at 16/1 in the "Best bet of 2013" thread on here.
Understandably, I was gutted yesterday, particularly as she looked to be travelling best and seemed to have the race at her mercy if she could maintain her momentum to the line. Sadly it didn’t happen.
A few weeks ago I took the plunge with a smaller bet on Just The Judge for The Oaks at 25/1, reasoning that she would be shorter if she finished placed in the 1000G. I now read that they are planning on keeping her at a mile, which seems to contradict what was said by connections going into the Guineas, which was that their biggest concern might be that 10F may be her ideal trip.
I think it would be madness to pass up a tilt at The Oaks, it would bring so much more to the CV than The Coronation Stakes or the Irish Guineas. If she doesn’t stay they can always drop back in trip. I would fancy her to beat Moth again if they met and Liber Nauticus has a shed load to prove yet.
Still that’s what separates racing’s winners from those who fart about at the game, the ability to get the right horse into the right race and make a name for yourself, rather than having plenty of money to tit around with.
As Del Boy said:- "You know it makes sense"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just the Judge was my biggest ante-post bet of the year and I backed her at 20/1, win only, I also tipped her up at 16/1 in the "Best bet of 2013" thread on here.
Understandably, I was gutted yesterday, particularly as she looked to be travelling best and seemed to have the race at her mercy if she could maintain her momentum to the line. Sadly it didn’t happen.
A few weeks ago I took the plunge with a smaller bet on Just The Judge for The Oaks at 25/1, reasoning that she would be shorter if she finished placed in the 1000G. I now read that they are planning on keeping her at a mile, which seems to contradict what was said by connections going into the Guineas, which was that their biggest concern might be that 10F may be her ideal trip.
I think it would be madness to pass up a tilt at The Oaks, it would bring so much more to the CV than The Coronation Stakes or the Irish Guineas. If she doesn’t stay they can always drop back in trip. I would fancy her to beat Moth again if they met and Liber Nauticus has a shed load to prove yet.
Still that’s what separates racing’s winners from those who fart about at the game, the ability to get the right horse into the right race and make a name for yourself, rather than having plenty of money to tit around with.
As Del Boy said:- "You know it makes sense"
No doubt that she was travelling the best and who knows what might have happened had Spencer just sat a little longer. She had no cover at any stage and he definitely rode her like a stayer.
Yes, it wouldn’t be quite so bad if you were going to get a shot at compensation in the Oaks. Unfortunately, in his Channel 4 interview the owner gave every indication that the Guineas was his Holy Grail and seemingly without having time to digest the result was talking about a rematch with the winner. Shame. As for advice I am sure the hangers on will just be telling him what he wants to hear.
Coronation Stakes now likely target for Just The Judge. Chief lackey David Redvers states in today’s Post that apparantly the owner was keen to go the Oaks route but was persuaded otherwise. If this is to be believed presumably that quote straight after the race about a rematch with Sky Lantern clearly must have been a mistake.
Just The Judge essentially looked a galloper and that was the way she was ridden. Why would she now want a greater test of speed? Add in the vagaries of the Ascot draw and the fact that the Oaks market is currently headed by two horses who have won two maiden races between them and it looks a very strange decision.
I remember reading that the Oaks was the race Barry Hills always wanted to win. Just The Judge looks to have a terrific chance of fulfilling that for his son if given the opportunity and I’d bet Barry would be doing his nut if he were still the trainer and the owner/manager were pulling her in another direction.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With the remaining horses that were prominent in the Guineas heading elsewhere, Big Break absent in most lists, Cecil already targetting the Coronation with Hot Snap and maiden winner Liber Nauticus having plenty to prove, I’m starting to wonder whether Moth will be handed the Oaks by default.
Beckett has a couple of nice fillies but other than that there doesn’t appear to be many dangers.
Snow Queen the possible exception but her pedigree does not suggest 12f and if Aidan has Moth for the middle distance distaffs you would imagine Snow Queen would be kept to a mile.
A fast finishing 3rd in a Guineas and a daughter of a Derby winner there’s a lot to like and the only thing to temper enthusiasm is Joseph’s comments that she may be best suited to a more even track than Newmarket – which Epsom is most certainly not.
7/2 looks fair to me.
Lee
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